Dubai’s property market is facing a critical supply mismatch as the number of completed units is unable to keep pace with the rising population, according to market experts.
Dubai’s population growth is outpacing the pace of new housing delivery. The city’s population grew 4.47 per cent year-on-year, reaching 4.03 million residents as of October 2025 - an average of roughly 470 new residents a day, according to Springfield Properties.
This demographic acceleration, driven by long-term visa reforms and strong inbound employment, translates into demand for nearly 150 new homes daily, said Farooq Syed, chief executive of Springfield Properties. Yet, only about 44,000 units are expected to be delivered in 2025. Most of the new supply consists of apartments, while family-orientated villas and town houses remain limited, he added.
While developers are launching projects at an unprecedented rate, a widening gap between announced launches and actual completions, coupled with a heavy focus on apartments, is signalling the possibility of an oversupply in the high-density sector and shrinking availability of villas and town houses, real estate agency Allsopp & Allsopp said in a new report.
In 2024, developers in Dubai launched 154,145 units, yet only 34,165 were completed, meaning 22 per cent of the total launched were delivered. In 2025, 152,402 units have been launched in the year-to-date and only 31,437 units completed so far, representing around 21 per cent of total launches, the data showed.
“An increase in apartment supply isn’t inherently negative, it’s actually essential to a balanced market,” said Lewis Allsopp, chairman of Allsopp & Allsopp. “Apartments cater to singles, couples, young families, first-time buyers and investors - the very buyers who need an accessible entry point into Dubai real estate.”
Fifty years ago, Dubai’s population was 175,000, so the new total of four million represents an increase of 2,185 per cent since 1975. The emirate’s population reached two million on December 24, 2011, meaning it has doubled in less than 15 years.
The city’s population has experienced its most noticeable growth since the coronavirus pandemic, with the emirate increasingly being considered a haven for global millionaires. Strong demand has come from the UK, India, Russia, South-east Asia and Africa.
The emirate is recording a surge in people from the UK, which is forecast to lose 16,500 millionaires this year. This is the largest net outflow of high-net-worth individuals by any country in the past 10 years.
The number of millionaires living in Dubai has doubled in the past decade, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing wealth centres, a report by New World Wealth for Henley & Partners found in April.
In 2024, Dubai had an estimated 81,200 millionaires, 237 centimillionaires – whose wealth is in the hundreds of millions – and 20 billionaires, according to the report. That compares to 72,500 millionaires, 212 centimillionaires and 15 billionaires in 2023.
Gap between launches and delivery
The gap between project launches and handovers has widened considerably in Dubai. In the first half of 2025, developers registered 90,337 new real estate units valued at Dh151 billion ($41.1 billion). Yet only 24 projects, worth Dh4.5 billion, were completed during the same period, Mr Syed said.
“This means that fewer than one in five newly registered units reached completion within that time frame. Market data further indicates that while more than 61,800 units are currently under construction for delivery in 2025, only 21 per cent of projects scheduled for the year have achieved 75 per cent or more construction progress – underscoring a widening delivery lag,” he said.
“Many large-scale developments have handover timelines extending into the latter half of the decade, with full completion for some masterplans expected beyond 2027.”
As of 2025, the construction pipeline includes 61,800 units scheduled for delivery this year and more than 100,000 units projected for 2026–2027, he added.
Focus on apartments
Developers are focusing on high-density apartment projects, which could tilt the market further towards saturation in the coming years. Of the 152,402 units launched in 2025 so far, 89 per cent were apartments, with just 11 per cent dedicated to villas and town houses, according to the Allsopp & Allsopp report.
Given that new launches are skewing so heavily towards apartments, the numbers suggest there is a risk of a continued shortage of villas and town houses, which are typically the best suited options to growing families and longer‑term residents, the research note said.
Currently, areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Townsquare, Damac Hills, Arjan and Studio City have particularly high apartment supply, the report found.
“Developers are prioritising high-density projects that can be built and sold faster and offer lower entry points for investors. However, this has created a supply bias away from family-orientated housing,” Mr Syed said.
“The imbalance is reflected in values: villa prices in key communities have risen up to 11 per cent in 2025 and now sit 66 per cent above 2014 levels. Villas and town houses represent 33 per cent of rental transactions but generate 58 per cent of total rental value, demonstrating how scarcity in larger family homes is pushing rents and prices up faster than the broader market.”
He added that this imbalance has created a “two-tier market”: apartments absorb short-term population growth and investor activity, while villas and town houses increasingly serve a premium end-user segment that faces limited choice and higher entry prices.
Communities such as Dubai Hills Estate, Al Barari and Jumeirah Islands continue to experience elevated demand from families seeking larger homes, while areas like JVC and Arjan absorb the bulk of apartment sales activity, Mr Syed informed.
