If the unimaginable happens to your company, how will you respond?
Road to ruin or recovery?
Euro Zone The National charts Europe's struggles as it attempts to through of financial crisis. Learn more
While there is business optimism across the UAE and much of the Gulf, there remains caution, given questions about financial stability in Europe and the US. After all, leaders are wary of the prospect of crawling through another period that is like the past three years.
These days, many are grappling with questions such as: what will the repercussions be if the euro zone's economy crumbles back to the pre-EU days? What will happen to your business if it is faced with another set of unexpected events?
Such events can have an extreme impact. The essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls these high-impact, unexpected events "black swans". While we hope we will not be faced with another round of black swans, we need to learn and apply the lessons of the last global financial crisis.
Across the region, the two primary black swan responses have been for leaders to stick their heads in the sand and act as if nothing will happen, or to believe they are too big to be harmed. But good leaders need to prepare for the worst.
The probability is high that an unimaginable event will happen at some point. Therefore, leaders need to be prepared to respond in time. But relying on risk management systems is not enough, because they do not predict the rare event that can bring a business to its knees.
Leaders also need to plan for the future while a business is strong, preparing for growth and being ready with a response in case the market takes a turn for the worse. Leaders need to excel at "what if" scenario planning.
During the boom in 2005, and well before the financial crisis was even speculated about, one company was creating a "what if" plan and preparing for the worst. Caterpillar, a US manufacturer of heavy earth-moving machines, was busy planning for a bust, knowing the volatility of its market and that the impact of a downturn could be enormous.
Each of Caterpillar's business units was required to prepare a strategy to model the worst trough in that unit's history and say how it would make money if that trough emerged.
When the most recent recession hit, all that Caterpillar executives had to do was pull out their trough plans and put them into action. Each business unit went into crisis mode, which resulted in record growth.
Last year, Caterpillar was the best-performing stock among the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. How did a company that requires huge sums of financial capital, and whose products are expensive investments that last for years, outpace even businesses such as Apple?
It planned for the unimaginable.
Unfortunately, there seems to be an aversion to "what if" planning across the region. While we can hypothesise about why this aversion exists, we would be better off investing that time in planning for that rare rainy day.
Dr Tommy Weir is an authority on fast-growth and emerging market leadership, author of The CEO Shift and the managing director of the Emerging Market Leadership Center.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
RESULTS
Time; race; prize; distance
4pm: Maiden; (D) Dh150,000; 1,200m
Winner: General Line, Xavier Ziani (jockey), Omar Daraj (trainer)
4.35pm: Maiden (T); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Travis County, Adrie de Vries, Ismail Mohammed
5.10pm: Handicap (D); Dh175,000; 1,200m
Winner: Scrutineer, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
5.45pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Ejaaby, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
6.55pm: Handicap (D); Dh160,000; 1,600m
Winner: Storyboard, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap (D); Dh150,000; 2,200m
Winner: Grand Dauphin, Gerald Mosse, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8.05pm: Handicap (T); Dh190,000; 1,800m
Winner: Good Trip, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Red Sparrow
Dir: Francis Lawrence
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Joel Egerton, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons
Three stars
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Manchester United 2 Burnley 2
Man United: Lingard (53', 90' 1)
Burnley: Barnes (3'), Defour (36')
Man of the Match: Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court (4pm UAE/12pm GMT)
Victoria Azarenka (BLR) v Heather Watson (GBR)
Rafael Nadal (ESP x4) v Karen Khachanov (RUS x30)
Andy Murray (GBR x1) v Fabio Fognini (ITA x28)
Court 1 (4pm UAE)
Steve Johnson (USA x26) v Marin Cilic (CRO x7)
Johanna Konta (GBR x6) v Maria Sakkari (GRE)
Naomi Osaka (JPN) v Venus Williams (USA x10)
Court 2 (2.30pm UAE)
Aljaz Bedene (GBR) v Gilles Muller (LUX x16)
Peng Shuai (CHN) v Simona Halep (ROM x2)
Jelena Ostapenko (LAT x13) v Camila Giorgi (ITA)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA x12) v Sam Querrey (USA x24)
Court 3 (2.30pm UAE)
Kei Nishikori (JPN x9) v Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP x18)
Carina Witthoeft (GER) v Elina Svitolina (UKR x4)
Court 12 (2.30pm UAE)
Dominika Cibulkova (SVK x8) v Ana Konjuh (CRO x27)
Kevin Anderson (RSA) v Ruben Bemelmans (BEL)
Court 18 (2.30pm UAE)
Caroline Garcia (FRA x21) v Madison Brengle (USA)
Benoit Paire (FRA) v Jerzy Janowicz (POL)
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Abu Dhabi race card
5pm Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
5.30pm Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
6pm Abu Dhabi Championship Listed | Dh180,000 | 1,600m
6.30pm Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,400m
7.30pm Handicap (TB) |Dh100,000 | 2,400m
Opening Rugby Championship fixtures: Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
