Prediction has always been a tough business. But economists and analysts say it has become a game increasingly fraught with error amid spreading uncertainty about the fate of global and regional economies.
"The volatile economic climate is dealing economists a difficult hand at the moment," says Daniel Kaye, an economist at the National Bank of Kuwait. "Economists were blamed for not seeing this crisis in the first place, but now that it's happened, it's fair to say we do live in a more unpredictable world than a few years ago. The outlook is fairly uncertain, and nobody can be truly sure about what's going to happen next."
That lack of certainty is abundantly clear in measurements of the accuracy of global and regional forecasts. Bloomberg's index of analyst accuracy in predicting the profits of the US's largest companies sagged to its lowest point in late 2008 and remains at historic lows. About 8.2 per cent of analysts correctly predicted US company earnings in this year's first quarter, down from above 30 per cent at the end of 2000.
Predictions about GDP growth in the Gulf tell a similar story. In late 2008, the IMF predicted the UAE's economy would grow by a healthy 6 per cent in 2009. In its most recent global outlook, however, the fund estimated the country's economic output last year actually declined by 0.7 per cent, a dramatic swing that economists say reflects the growing difficulty of making forecasts. The IMF has made an even more radical downwards revision of its view for GDP growth in Kuwait and Qatar last year - by 8.5 percentage points and 12.4 percentage points, respectively.
A dearth of good statistics for the region is in part the cause of the wide fluctuation in forecasts, economists say. Many Gulf countries release official economic growth figures just once a year, forcing economists and analysts to use anecdotal estimates and global patterns to make their mid-year predictions.
The UAE generally follows this pattern, although Sultan al Mansouri, the Minister of Economy, periodically updates the Government's outlook.
"Most countries in the region only publish GDP figures once a year, so that makes the scope for error even greater," Mr Kaye says.
Against that backdrop, global surprises such as Europe's recent debt crisis and the ensuing drive towards fiscal austerity have only clouded regional economists' already-murky crystal balls.
Given the Gulf's tighter links with the global economy - links that were painfully exposed at the onset of the financial crisis, when many commentators had hoped the region's big oil reserves would insulate it from trouble in western economies - the potential for a shaky world outlook sending tremors through local economies has become an important factor in predictions.
"When there are major unanticipated shocks to the system, both at the global level and the local level, it can fundamentally change the present and thus require us to think again about where we're headed," says Simon Williams, the chief economist for the Gulf at HSBC, who is projecting 2 per cent GDP growth for the UAE this year, ahead of the IMF's 1.3 per cent prediction.
"But I think it's then the role of the forecaster to understand the drivers and to gauge where they're taking the economy to, whether we're talking about the UAE, the UK or the US. The lack of timely and reliable data here makes that job harder, but I don't think it prevents you as an analyst from picking out the narrative. A forecaster should understand what the key drivers are, what impact they're having and how that affects growth."
Opinions vary on how precise economists' estimates ought to be on GDP growth, inflation, company profits and other standard economic figures for the region. Some economists say they avoid precise forecasts or build in margins of error because they want their reports to reflect their underlying uncertainty.
Others are comfortable coming up with numbers, but they emphasise that their estimates should be taken more as guides than as firm predictions. In the GCC, as in other emerging markets where data are scarce and economic indicators volatile, analysts say forecasting is more about constructing an overarching narrative of growth than pinning down specific numbers.
"In general, it's not easy to forecast," says John Sfakianakis, the chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi. "Usually, we try to put a lot of emphasis on forecasting and how accurate we are, but as an economist you can only forecast accurately the trends over the next three to six months and say the economy is either growing or not growing."
Beyond that, he says, "you're becoming a fortune-teller or astrologer rather than an economist".
So should the public trust the forecasts that the region's economists produce? Mr Sfakianakis says people should look at economists' analysis more closely than their figures. He also notes that most economists in the Gulf, including himself, are employed by banks that may defend their commercial interests to the exclusion of blunt economic assessments, especially when they involve less-than-stellar forecasts.
"The world should be looking less to economists to explain things," he says. "And I think economists in the region have to be more down to earth when it comes to predicting things because they have very little to play with and have access to."
afitch@thenational.ae
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN MARITIME DISPUTE
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
Factfile on Garbine Muguruza:
Name: Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
World ranking: 15 (will rise to 5 on Monday)
Date of birth: October 8, 1993
Place of birth: Caracas, Venezuela
Place of residence: Geneva, Switzerland
Height: 6ft (1.82m)
Career singles titles: 4
Grand Slam titles: 2 (French Open 2016, Wimbledon 2017)
Career prize money: $13,928,719
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Women%E2%80%99s%20T20%20World%20Cup%20Qualifier
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E25%20April%20%E2%80%93%20Ireland%20v%20UAE*%3Cbr%3E27%20April%20%E2%80%93%20UAE%20v%20Zimbabwe**%3Cbr%3E29%20April%20%E2%80%93%20Netherlands%20v%20UAE*%3Cbr%3E3%20May%20%E2%80%93%20UAE%20v%20Vanuatu*%3Cbr%3E5%20May%20%E2%80%93%20Semi-finals%3Cbr%3E7%20May%20%E2%80%93%20Final%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEsha%20Oza%20(captain)%2C%20Al%20Maseera%20Jahangir%2C%20Avanee%20Patel%2C%20Heena%20Hotchandani%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Mehak%20Thakur%2C%20Rinitha%20Rajith%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E*Zayed%20Cricket%20Stadium%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E**Tolerance%20Oval%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
Most%20ODI%20hundreds
%3Cp%3E49%20-%20Sachin%20Tendulkar%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E47%20-%20Virat%20Kohli%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E31%20-%20Rohit%20Sharma%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E30%20-%20Ricky%20Ponting%2C%20Australia%2FICC%0D%3Cbr%3E28%20-%20Sanath%20Jayasuriya%2C%20Sri%20Lanka%2FAsia%0D%3Cbr%3E27%20-%20Hashim%20Amla%2C%20South%20Africa%0D%3Cbr%3E25%20-%20AB%20de%20Villiers%2C%20South%20Africa%2FAfrica%0D%3Cbr%3E25%20-%20Chris%20Gayle%2C%20West%20Indies%2FICC%0D%3Cbr%3E25%20-%20Kumar%20Sangakkara%2C%20Sri%20Lanka%2FICC%2FAsia%0D%3Cbr%3E22%20-%20Sourav%20Ganguly%2C%20India%2FAsia%0D%3Cbr%3E22%20-%20Tillakaratne%20Dilshan%2C%20Sri%20Lanka%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
PROFILE OF CURE.FIT
Started: July 2016
Founders: Mukesh Bansal and Ankit Nagori
Based: Bangalore, India
Sector: Health & wellness
Size: 500 employees
Investment: $250 million
Investors: Accel, Oaktree Capital (US); Chiratae Ventures, Epiq Capital, Innoven Capital, Kalaari Capital, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Piramal Group’s Anand Piramal, Pratithi Investment Trust, Ratan Tata (India); and Unilever Ventures (Unilever’s global venture capital arm)
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults