Here’s my wish list for the Egyptian economy in 2017.
First off is further liberalisation of the economy. After almost six years of resistance, the government last month took the bold decision to free the currency up entirely, no longer tying it to the US dollar.
In other words, it allowed the price to be determined by supply and demand. My wish is that the government press the liberalisation forward on new fronts.
Far too many prices are still determined by government decree – at levels that all too often have lost any relationship to reality, among them bread, sugar, apartments, petrol, diesel, electricity and the wheat, rice and cotton the government buys from farmers.
The calculus should no longer be how to maintain these prices, rather how to loosen them as quickly as possible, but in a way that minimises the pain for the poor. The government should get out of the price-fixing business altogether.
Second is that the whole of Egypt might be made into a giant free trade zone. Already some areas have been set aside for free trade in the idea that this spurs economic growth and creates jobs. So instead of raising tariffs to protect a few fossilised industries that can’t handle international competition, why not reduce tariffs to a minimum throughout the country to create a dynamic free market open to the world?
Rather than send millions of its citizens to work in free-market countries around the world, Egypt could bring the free market home to its citizens. Enormous wealth would flow in, especially to the area around the Suez Canal, which lies literally a stone’s throw from a good chunk of world trade.
Third, I would like for the government to get out of the real estate business. State-owned Misr Real Estate Assets, for example, owns nearly 700 properties around the country, including scores of historic buildings in Cairo and Alexandria that are disintegrating for lack of maintenance.
The state Holding Company for Tourism, Hotels and Cinema (HOTAC) and its subsidiary Egyptian General Organisation for Tourism and Hotels own a host of hotels around the country, many of them also historic, along with stakes in a dozens of smaller tourism companies.
The two companies have been tasked with preserving the historic nature of their hotels but several are shuttered and falling apart, while others have been very poorly renovated. Other government entities, including ministries, the central bank and public enterprises, have their own giant real estate portfolios.
The government needs money and it has proved to be a horrible hotel and real estate manager. Time for it to get out of the business.
Another wish of mine is that the government concentrate on expanding its mass transit systems, especially metro and light rail. Here, I don’t mean fancy bullet trains and monorails but normal lines that help the average person get to work. Cairo’s metro system has been overwhelmingly successful at lightening traffic on the city’s impossibly gridlocked streets. Let’s have more.
The beauty of metro projects is that they create thousands of jobs during their construction phase, while the completed lines have an immediate positive effect on economic growth. The third phase of Cairo’s third metro line, which extends westward across the Nile from downtown Cairo, is said to be employing 5,000 people. When it is completed, some of the congestion above ground will be relieved, shortening everyone’s commute. The World Bank, in a note released in 2014, estimated that congestion in the greater Cairo alone shaved about 3.6 percentage points off Egypt’s GDP.
Light rail could also help to ease Cairo’s congestion. About 40 years after it was begun, the distant suburb of Sixth of October has yet to be connected to Cairo by rail. Scores of other developments on either side of the city remain unconnected. Construction of new metro and light rail lines should jump the queue among Egypt’s other planned mega-projects. As a matter of fact, it should be given emergency status.
Other wishes for the new year include fast-tracking new mining regulations to make the exploitation of Egypt’s abundant mineral resources more attractive to investors, improving Egypt’s property registration system and focusing a bit more on preserving and investing in Egypt’s historical monuments, not just the Pharaonic and Islamic ones but also those of the 19th and early 20th centuries. There was massive destruction during the turmoil of the past six years.
And, oh yes, wouldn’t it be wonderful if some new antiquity discoveries were made that put Egypt back firmly on tourist maps?
Patrick Werr has worked as a financial writer in Egypt for 26 years.
business@thenational.ae
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2
Vinicius Junior (71') Mariano (90 2')
Barcelona 0
CREW
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs: 2017 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn
Price, base / as tested: Dhxxx
Engine: 5.7L V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 556Nm @ 3,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km