The US has dominated Gulf energy security since the declaration of the "Carter Doctrine" in 1980. Under that doctrine, the US protected shipping during the Iran-Iraq war, expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, invaded Iraq and now confronts Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
But how long will a weakened US be content to play this role, when more and more of the Gulf's oil goes to rising powers in Asia?
Senior Gulf political and energy specialists debated this issue at the Brookings Doha Energy Forum last week. It is a timely question, with the US declaration that it would focus diplomatic efforts more on Asia counterpointing the Gulf tour of Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier. That visit led to energy deals with Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.
South Korea has already built up its position in the UAE with contracts to build nuclear power stations and to explore for oil. A Japanese oil concession was renewed and extended in 2010. And these three Asian powers, all major customers for Gulf oil and gas, have been prominent winners in bids for Iraqi field developments.
The next big prize is the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (Adco) concession in Abu Dhabi. It is currently held by major western companies including Shell, ExxonMobil, BP and Total but is due to expire in 2014.
Absent from this activity, surprisingly, is India. Indian companies have not yet been named in connection with the Adco renewal, and they did not win any bids in Iraq. Of the major Asian powers, India has the closest historical, cultural and personal ties with the region. It is a big customer for petroleum, and it would seem to be the best placed to assist with Gulf security.
But its national oil companies are relatively weak and, being poorer than its Asian rivals, it has been less able to offer the linked energy, loan and infrastructure packages that have been a distinctive feature of their outreach. India is unlucky with geography - tantalisingly close to Gulf and Central Asian energy but with the road blocked by hard-bargaining Iran, insecure Afghanistan and rival Pakistan.
The direct stake of Asian companies in Middle Eastern energy is still relatively small, certainly not in proportion to their consumption. For some time, Asian countries will remain content to have their energy assets protected free of charge by US forces.
But a speaker familiar with American diplomatic thinking suggested it was inconceivable that the US would continue to bear the entire burden while itself becoming more self-sufficient in oil and, especially, gas.
The EU, an apparently natural US ally and heavily dependent on gas from the Middle East and North Africa, has not shown signs of stepping up its role.
For its part, China in particular may eventually feel that its growing global stature requires a more active guard of its Gulf investments, people and energy supplies. This might happen in cooperation with the US - or in competition.
Indian observers in particular expressed the thought that the US has more often been a source of instability in the Middle East - a feeling that may be reinforced as oil prices rise over the confrontation with Iran.
And is the main threat to Middle East energy external - as the USSR was for Jimmy Carter - or disputes between regional heavyweights, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, a more assertive Turkey, a revived Iraq or even Egypt?
It took a long time, and three major wars, to establish the US role after the withdrawal of British forces in 1971. The path to a multilateral security architecture, with more Asian representation, may be equally turbulent.
The Gulf states, including Iran and Iraq, are not passive bystanders in this process either. Each will be keenly aware that its choice of new energy partners is vital, not just for economic growth but for shaping the political arena for decades to come.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Aahid Al Khalediah II, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Whistle, Harry Bentley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup - Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alsaied, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mumayaza, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Medahim, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
THE BIG THREE
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
19 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 5 (2011, 14, 15, 18, 19)
French Open: 2 (2016, 21)
US Open: 3 (2011, 15, 18)
Australian Open: 9 (2008, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21)
Prize money: $150m
ROGER FEDERER
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 8 (2003, 04, 05, 06, 07, 09, 12, 17)
French Open: 1 (2009)
US Open: 5 (2004, 05, 06, 07, 08)
Australian Open: 6 (2004, 06, 07, 10, 17, 18)
Prize money: $130m
RAFAEL NADAL
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 2 (2008, 10)
French Open: 13 (2005, 06, 07, 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20)
US Open: 4 (2010, 13, 17, 19)
Australian Open: 1 (2009)
Prize money: $125m
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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'Cheb%20Khaled'
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12%20restaurants%20opening%20at%20the%20hotel%20this%20month
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
FIGHT CARD
From 5.30pm in the following order:
Featherweight
Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Welterweight
Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
Catchweight 100kg
Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)
Featherweight
James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)
Welterweight
Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Bantamweight:
Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
