Each year's annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos begins with a series of what are ordinarily called "updates" - update on Latin America, update on information technology, and the Big Kahuna of all updates, the update on the economy.
In recent years, the Time magazine editor Michael Elliott has done multiple tours of duty moderating these sessions, which set the tone for the entire meeting. This year, Time appears to have managed a marketing coup by taking over the entire session, complete with Time logos flashing on monitors and TV camera booms sweeping over the heads of the assembled participants.
These televised sessions, whether from by the BBC or CNBC, sometimes provide a bit of an entertaining respite from the monotonous format of the usual sessions. Yesterday's Time magazine session on "What Is the 'New Normal' for Global Growth?" broke with Davos convention not only by eschewing the "Update:" in the title, but also by seating its panellists in swivel chairs around a boardroom table instead of in a row of easy chairs facing the audience.
The undisputed ringer in Davos when it comes to the economy these days is Nouriel Roubini, the New York University Stern School of Business professor who these days is able to market his pessimistic prognostications as chairman of Roubini Global Economics.
Mr Roubini predicted the global financial crisis and so enters the room wearing the equivalent of a heavyweight boxing title belt. He is always clearly the man to beat at the table. So it was fitting that Mr Elliott announced Mr Roubini in the style of a ring announcer as "The Cassandra of Washington Square Park". This week's mystery ingredient: global economic alphabet soup.
Mr Roubini opened his display with a blitzkrieg of reasons to be terrified about the global economy. We are in a U-shaped recession that is at risk of becoming a double-dip recession, he warned. Things might look good in the first half of this year, but watch out in the second half, when governments have to start curbing spending. When the tide of fiscal stimulus starts to recede, it will expose anaemic consumer spending and widespread industrial overcapacity, not only in the US and Europe, but also in China, Mr Roubini warned.
He then delivered a withering series of body blows to emerging-market optimism, reminding participants that China, however scary to western jobs, is not big enough to pick up the slack left by US consumers in driving global growth.
David Rubenstein, the managing director of the private equity firm Carlyle Group, offered a game defence, joking that he would not want Mr Roubini along if he were trying to raise funds from investors.
He delivered a traditional argument for emerging-market optimism, youthful demographics and the like. He then attempted a sort of reversal by suggesting that the elderly population of the US would provide steady demand for services and products such as assisted care and plastic hips. Oh boy, now I'm really excited about the prospects for American innovation. Mr Rubenstein then unveiled what was undoubtedly his best defence, citing the poor record economists have on predicting economic crises, and saying that professional investors simply don't really rely on economists to guide their investment decisions.
But wishing Mr Roubini's pessimism away proved fruitless. Throughout his comments, Mr Roubini sat next to Mr Rubenstein wearing an expression that bordered on pity. Silly investors, he seemed to be thinking, always confusing asset prices with economic prospects. Does he not see the doom that awaits?
He poured himself a glass of water and waited for Mr Elliott to set him up for the coup de grace. It came with a lob across the plate: is the optimism on emerging markets really justified?
With the big "overspending" countries such as the US and those in Europe cutting back, the "oversaving" countries such as China can no longer produce more than they spend and rake in money from selling surplus production. His main concern, Mr Roubini said, was that the world was simply going back to normal even as the global economy headed towards the next cliff, with bailed-out banks taking excessive risks - this time in emerging markets - and central banks printing money. Yes, there is a recovery, but it is "too much, too fast, too soon".
@Email:warnold@thenational.ae
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGold%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMagomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20%2B100kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhaled%20Al%20Shehi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EFaisal%20Al%20Ketbi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAsma%20Al%20Hosani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamma%20Al%20Kalbani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-63kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESilver%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EOmar%20Al%20Marzooqi%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EBishrelt%20Khorloodoi%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhalid%20Al%20Blooshi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamed%20Al%20Suwaidi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-69kg%0D%3Cbr%3EBalqees%20Abdulla%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-48kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBronze%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHawraa%20Alajmi%20%E2%80%93%20Karate%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20kumite%20-50kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAhmed%20Al%20Mansoori%20%E2%80%93%20Cycling%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20omnium%0D%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Al%20Marri%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3ETeam%20UAE%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EDzhafar%20Kostoev%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-100kg%0D%3Cbr%3ENarmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-66kg%0D%3Cbr%3EGrigorian%20Aram%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-90kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMahdi%20Al%20Awlaqi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-77kg%0D%3Cbr%3ESaeed%20Al%20Kubaisi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamsa%20Al%20Ameri%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-57kg%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Mental%20health%20support%20in%20the%20UAE
%3Cp%3E%E2%97%8F%20Estijaba%20helpline%3A%208001717%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Ministry%20of%20Health%20and%20Prevention%20hotline%3A%20045192519%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Mental%20health%20support%20line%3A%20800%204673%20(Hope)%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20at%20hope.hw.gov.ae%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eamana%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Farra%20and%20Ziad%20Aboujeb%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERegulator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDFSA%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinancial%20services%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E85%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESelf-funded%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The Lowdown
Us
Director: Jordan Peele
Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Winston Duke, Shahadi Wright Joseqph, Evan Alex and Elisabeth Moss
Rating: 4/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENetflix%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKris%20Fade%2C%20Ebraheem%20Al%20Samadi%2C%20Zeina%20Khoury%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
