There was once a Saudi, an Iranian, an Iraqi and an Ecuadorian. This is not a complicated joke, but instead, the line-up to be Opec's next secretary-general, succeeding the long-serving Libyan Abdullah El Badri.
The contest sheds interesting light on the emerging struggle that will define oil markets and Opec's own role over the next decade. It features the incumbent champion for Saudi Arabia (and its candidate Majid Al Moneef), the declining rival (Iran and Gholamhossein Nozari), the rising star (Iraq and Thamir Ghadhban) and the unexpected outsider (Ecuador and Wilson Pastor).
Interestingly, the real Opec heavyweights rarely provide the secretary-general.
Iraq has not filled the role since the thoughtful strategist Fadhil Chalabi in 1983-88; and Saudi Arabia and Iran have each only held the position once, as far back as the 1960s, when the organisation's role was very different. And there has never been an Emirati secretary-general.
Although the role is essentially technocratic, to inform the organisation's members rather than making policy, current tensions give this year's contest a heightened significance.
Iraq's oil minister described it as a "national mission to obtain this job for its importance". The Saudis will be reluctant to support an Iranian candidate, or an Iraqi whom they see as an ally of Tehran's, but this opposition will be repaid.
These internal politics are a pity, for there are certainly some impressive CVs on show. Mr Ghadhban was jailed briefly under Saddam Hussein for blaming the oil industry's cement shortages on excessive construction of statues of the dictator. He then had the Herculean job of Iraqi oil minister during the chaotic post-invasion years.
Mr Pastor, an experienced geologist and economist, was the natural resources minister during a controversial period of renegotiations with foreign companies. He has also sat on the other side of the table with Texaco's Ecuador unit.
The new secretary-general will also have to grapple with the difficult problem of what Opec is actually for. Unfortunately, often excellent market analysis becomes redundant in the face of the members' disparate interests. In its last report, Opec itself estimated Iranian production at just 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but Tehran claimed an increase to 3.8 million bpd.
It has been revealed repeatedly that at times of high oil prices, the organisation's mantra of stability is abandoned. The GCC members - Saudi Arabia, with the support of Kuwait and Abu Dhabi - are forced to act unilaterally to increase production, a move that Iran, Venezuela and Algeria consistently oppose.
The last Opec meeting finessed the issue by setting an overall production ceiling of 30 million bpd, but this remains rather meaningless until translated into shares per country.
Iran is producing well below its usual quota because of sanctions, the Saudis are happily making up the difference, and Iraq is likely to overtake Iran's output by next year. Opec is now 1.75 million bpd over its supposed limit.
Although this year Saudi Arabia has unsheathed the oil weapon in its support for sanctions against Iran, this is not the first time it has wielded its market power to threaten an opponent: it did so against the shah's Iran in 1976, against all its colleagues in 1986, against Venezuela in 1998.
Only once have Opec tensions gone beyond the diplomatic sphere, with Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
So the organisation's main purpose has therefore become coordinating supply reductions in the time of crisis, as in September 2008. Until such an emergency arrives, the aim is to maintain relative civility so that cuts can be activated swiftly.
So the contest for secretary-general at Opec's meeting on Thursday is not a joke. The choice of winner will give some hints on backroom deals struck to preserve Opec's relative, although illusory, cohesion.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
twitter: Follow and share our breaking business news. Follow us
iPad users can follow our twitterfeed via Flipboard - just search for Ind_Insights on the app.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
MO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Teresa%20Ruiz%2C%20Omar%20Elba%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SCHEDULE FOR SHOW COURTS
Centre Court - from 4pm (UAE time)
Angelique Kerber (1) v Irina Falconi
Martin Klizan v Novak Djokovic (2)
Alexandr Dolgopolov v Roger Federer (3)
Court One - from 4pm
Milos Raonic (6) v Jan-Lennard Struff
Karolina Pliskova (3) v Evgeniya Rodina
Dominic Thiem (8) v Vasek Pospisil
Court Two - from 2.30pm
Juan Martin Del Potro (29) v Thanasi Kokkinakis
Agnieszka Radwanska (9) v Jelena Jankovic
Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych (11)
Ons Jabeur v Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
