Concerns that the slowdown in China’s economic growth will curb Asia’s energy demand from the Middle East and beyond could be premature. Yes, any hint of weakness in the world’s largest net importer of crude and its second-largest economy rings alarm bells in the capitals of Opec member countries and in boardrooms across the globe. India and South East Asian economies are also flourishing centres of energy demand, but China is front and centre.
China’s crude imports in the first six months of the year grew 7.5 per cent, yes, slower than the 10 per cent pace for the same period last year, according to customs data. But that is still a healthy increase, with Opec forecasting demand for its oil to rise by 1 million barrels per day next year.
The devaluation of China’s currency, the yuan, in mid-August fuelled fears in the global markets that China’s debt-driven burst on to the global stage over the past decade could crumble and take the bulk of Asia’s energy demand down with it. But while China overtook the United States as the largest crude importer in April for the first time this year and no longer posts 10 per cent annual GDP growth, its fiscal future is hardly bleak.
The IMF expects China to grow 6.8 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent next year, down from 7.4 per cent last year. Although the forecasts mark China’s slowest economic growth in a quarter of a century, the data has also triggered Beijing’s plans to start switching to more sophisticated market reforms. If all goes according to plan, China’s fiscal discomfort today will transform its rather wild economic prowess into a steady and safe consumer-based economy within a few years.
China’s energy demands are not expected to weaken in the meantime. The General Administration of Customs in Beijing estimates that the country’s import of Middle Eastern crude rose 273,000 barrels per day in the first half of this year (from the same period last year) to a rough average this year of 3.5 million bpd – just below half of China’s total crude imports. Last year these rose 9 per cent year-on-year to an average of 6.2 million bpd, and surpassed 7 million bpd in the first half of this year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects China’s oil consumption to grow moderately to about 11.3 million bpd by next year. In short, China’s energy needs will ensure it is among the world’s top crude importers for a long while yet.
China’s import appetite has partly been driven by an ambitious plan to build its strategic petroleum reserve capacity to about 500 million barrels by 2020 to safeguard domestic supply. China’s current stockpile is likely to be about 130 million barrels, but the exact figure is closely guarded. What is clear is that Beijing wants to have enough stored to equal at least 90 days of net oil imports by 2020. There is no doubt that the collapse in oil prices over the past year has created a perfect storm that has inadvertently lent China a helping fiscal hand to bolster storage.
China’s expanding middle class is also expected to ramp up consumer-based growth, driving demand for petrol and jet fuel. The tentative forecasts that oil prices will strengthen towards the middle of next year means that China will probably also increase its imports during that time of the year to lock in additional refining supply sooner rather than later.
Kuwait is particularly keen to push deeper into the Asia’s downstream sector, and is pursuing joint ventures with local counterparts to build integrated refineries as investors shun Europe’s dying refining sector. But Kuwait has had mixed success. There has been significant progress on Kuwait’s investment in Vietnam’s 200,000 bpd Nghi Son refinery, but efforts to take a stake in the new 300,000 bpd Zhanjiang refinery of China’s state-controlled Sinopec have stagnated.
But there is no doubt that China’s robust and dual relationship with a handful of partners in the Middle East will continue, led by Saudi Arabia. The kingdom, the world’s largest exporter of crude oil, accounted for the biggest portion of China’s crude imports last year, at 16 per cent, followed by Angola and Russia with 13 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.
China’s historic trade link to the Middle East that has endured for more than two millennia, plus Beijing’s aversion to wade into regional politics, continues to charm trade partners such as Oman, the UAE and Iraq. But such close ties can also risk leading to over-reliance, which could be said of Oman’s recent export portfolio. China accounted for about 90 per cent of the sultanate’s crude exports in June.
Meanwhile, China has kept a distance from Iran to appease the US and Europe during the economic sanctions on Tehran. But the historic Sino-Iran trade accord is expected to regain momentum following the testy nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1. Data from Facts Global Energy, a consultancy, shows that Iran accounted for 9 per cent of China’s total crude imports last year, on par with Iraqi imports and a touch below Omani crude imports.
So should energy producers be rushing to safeguard investments against shaky Asian demand? Not quite, but they should heed the cautious undertone that has long accompanied China’s bullish story. There must be an appreciation of China’s changing economic framework, and that the Asian heavyweight’s energy strategy will shift as it hits milestones in its quest for vast strategic petroleum reserves.
Thangapandian Srinivasalu is the executive director of the Gulf Petrochem Group
RESULTS
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Fast%20X
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Islamic%20Architecture%3A%20A%20World%20History
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THE%C2%A0SPECS
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Company%20Profile
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The%20specs
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Honeymoonish
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The specs
Engine: 2x201bhp AC Permanent-magnetic electric
Transmission: n/a
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 659Nm
Price estimate: Dh200,000
On sale: Q3 2022
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS - ELITE MEN
1. Henri Schoeman (RSA) 57:03
2. Mario Mola (ESP) 57:09
3. Vincent Luis (FRA) 57:25
4. Leo Bergere (FRA)57:34
5. Jacob Birtwhistle (AUS) 57:40
6. Joao Silva (POR) 57:45
7. Jonathan Brownlee (GBR) 57:56
8. Adrien Briffod (SUI) 57:57
9. Gustav Iden (NOR) 57:58
10. Richard Murray (RSA) 57:59
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Isle of Dogs
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
I Feel Pretty
Dir: Abby Kohn/Mark Silverstein
Starring: Amy Schumer, Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
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Hot%20Seat
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20James%20Cullen%20Bressack%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Mel%20Gibson%2C%20Kevin%20Dillon%2C%20Shannen%20Doherty%2C%20Sam%20Asghari%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400bhp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E563Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh320%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD%204
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RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
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