The damaging environmental effects of coal, which supplies more than two thirds of China's energy needs, are obvious to see in the skies over the country's cities.
China consumes half the world's coal, it is the world's largest power market and the globe's largest carbon dioxide emitter.
So when will China's reliance on coal start to ease?
The good news is that greenhouse gas emissions from its energy industry are expected to peak in 2027 as renewable energy and gas play an ever more significant role in meeting China's energy needs, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
Whether or not this positive scenario comes about depends on factors such as the cost at which China extracts shale gas reserves, water constraints on drilling and power generation and the speed with which environmental policies such as a carbon price are enforced, BNEF said.
China's projected electricity consumption growth is five per cent per year, which is equivalent to 88 gigawatts every year.
To put that in context, that is the equivalent of adding the total installed capacity of the UK every year.
The government needs to meet this demand while at the same time addressing growing public unhappiness about appalling smog in the cities. The government has boosted solar power targets and other renewables to try and improve the situation and head off any further unrest over hazardous environment.
By 2030, the power market will have doubled in size with an additional 1,583GW to reach 2,707GW.
However, coal's dominance will be challenged by competitive renewables, such as large-scale hydroelectric projects, increased awareness of environmental pollution, the prospects of shale gas and a potential price on carbon emissions.
"Renewables will contribute to more than half of new capacity growth and by 2030 installed renewable capacity will be equal to that of coal," the BNEF report said.
Coal-fired power generation capacity will decrease from 67 per cent last year to 44 per cent in 2030 although in absolute terms will continue to grow by 25GW per year, which is still almost one-third of new construction and equal to two large coal plants every month. Coal remains a significant threat to the environment.
"Despite significant progress in renewable energy deployment, coal looks set to remain dominant to 2030," said Jun Ying, the Beijing-based country manager and head of research for China at BNEF.
"More support for renewable energy, natural gas and energy efficiency will be needed if China wants to reduce its reliance on coal more quickly."
The report bases this forecast on its "New Normal" scenario, which the authors believe is most likely given the current policy, technology and economic situation.
Renewables including hydroelectric power will increase from 27 per cent to 44 per cent in 2030 at 47GW per year.
The key reasons underlying the rapid growth of renewable energy are similar to those observed in other countries, the BNEF said.
These include the continuously improving economics of wind and solar photovoltaic panel (PV) manufacture due to falling technology costs, increasing costs for coal-fired plants as a result of environmental controls and the expected uptake of distributed solar PV in China's commercial sector.
The president Xi Jinping has made much of his government's desire to make the "Beautiful China" dream a reality but are the technological and economic drivers there to help the country transform itself to create a cleaner future?
"The new Chinese leadership is responding to calls for more equitable and sustainable economic growth, a faster pace of reform and to concerns over environmental degradation," the BNEF said.
"Expected structural reforms will gradually reduce the government's interference in the economy, allow more private capital to enter state-dominated sectors such as energy, and impose further environmental controls," the report's authors said.
However, because renewables have a lower capacity factor relative to fossil fuels, the share of coal-fired power generation will remain dominant at 58 per cent in 2030. This is less than the 72 per cent seen last year, the report said.
Despite accounting for more than half of added capacity, renewables including hydro will only increase its share of generation from 21 per cent in 2012 to 29 per cent in 2030.
business@thenational.ae
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE SPECS
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Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
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