The world’s largest independent commodity traders see oil prices rising further this year as demand continues to grow and supply remains constrained.
Yet as top executives from Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Glencore agreed on the direction of the crude market, they also differed over the size and duration of the rally.
Brent crude, which has already reached a two-year high of $73 a barrel, could rise as much as $5 in the coming months, according to top oil trader Vitol. Yet the second-biggest player, Trafigura, predicted a new commodity “super-cycle” that could take oil to $100 a barrel and see a further a surge in metals prices.
Their difference of opinion goes to the heart of the debate about the state of the global economy. Where some observers see a new era of high inflation due to surging consumption of scarce raw materials, others see temporary imbalances in supply and demand that reflect the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound.
“It is not a super-cycle,” Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said at the FT Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday. “The energy transition tells us demand will peak and drop.”
A far more bullish assessment came from Trafigura chief executive Jeremy Weir, who predicted many years of high prices for a range of commodities, including a chance of $100-a-barrel crude due to lack of supply.
“This is not a one or two-year phenomenon,” Mr Weir said at the same event. “This is a decade or longer.”
Global commodity markets have just gone through the most turbulent year in their history due to the coronavirus. While the successful rollout of vaccines is allowing economic activity to return close to normal in many developed countries, prices are unlikely to be heading for a period of tranquility, the traders said.
An uneven recovery in fuel consumption, a lack of investment in new oil fields and the disruption caused by the transition to low-carbon energy are likely to spur greater crude-price swings, said Alex Sanna, head of oil and gas marketing at Glencore.
“I believe in spikes in demand and regulatory changes, and that is going to create a lot of volatility,” Mr Sanna said.
Vitol’s Mr Hardy predicted that oil consumption will continue to rise for years to come, reaching 105 million to 110 million barrels a day by 2030. Under-investment caused by last year’s price slump means “there is going to be a gap between 2025 and 2035 in terms of supply and demand”.
Even so, crude would only reach $100 a barrel if the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies choose to force it that high, Mr Hardy said.
That’s an unlikely outcome, said Marco Dunand, the co-founder and chief executive of Mercuria Energy Group. Oil prices won’t run much higher because Opec+, which has a firm grip on the market because of its deep production cuts, doesn’t want crude above $75 a barrel, he said.
Torbjorn Tornqvist, the co-founder and head of smaller trader Gunvor Group, expects oil prices to remain high in the near to medium term and sees the boom in metals continuing. His company is considering getting back into metals trading after abandoning it five years ago.
Trafigura’s Mr Weir sees high demand for metals due to the shift to electric vehicles and construction of clean-energy infrastructure, such as power cables and wind turbines.
“If you want to electrify we are going to need more copper,” Mr Weir said. “Higher prices are the only solution” to the current supply constraints, he said.
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Mykonos, with a flight change to its partner airline Olympic Air in Athens. Return flights cost from Dh4,105 per person, including taxes.
Where to stay
The modern-art-filled Ambassador hotel (myconianambassador.gr) is 15 minutes outside Mykonos Town on a hillside 500 metres from the Platis Gialos Beach, with a bus into town every 30 minutes (a taxi costs €15 [Dh66]). The Nammos and Scorpios beach clubs are a 10- to 20-minute walk (or water-taxi ride) away. All 70 rooms have a large balcony, many with a Jacuzzi, and of the 15 suites, five have a plunge pool. There’s also a private eight-bedroom villa. Double rooms cost from €240 (Dh1,063) including breakfast, out of season, and from €595 (Dh2,636) in July/August.
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
MEYDAN CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
The National selections:
6.30pm AF Alwajel
7.05pm Ekhtiyaar
7.40pm First View
8.15pm Benbatl
8.50pm Zakouski
9.25pm: Kimbear
10pm: Chasing Dreams
10.35pm: Good Fortune
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
MATCH INFO
Karnatake Tuskers 114-1 (10 ovs)
Charles 57, Amla 47
Bangla Tigers 117-5 (8.5 ovs)
Fletcher 40, Moores 28 no, Lamichhane 2-9
Bangla Tiger win by five wickets
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The Dark Blue Winter Overcoat & Other Stories From the North
Edited and Introduced by Sjón and Ted Hodgkinson
Pushkin Press
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.0-litre, twin-turbocharged W12
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh1,050,000
On sale: now
How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
