The tropical capital of Malabo, with its wooden colonial buildings, near-unbroken rain and cloud, red-eared monkeys and crocodiles, does not have much in common with Riyadh, Baghdad or Tehran. Yet one thing is enough to admit Equatorial Guinea into an exclusive club – petrol. As Opec and non-Opec states pursue unprecedented cooperation, Equatorial Guinea is next to seek to join the producers’ organisation – but will there be more?
Since Indonesia rejoined briefly and then dropped out, Opec has had 13 members. Angola became the first new member since 1975 when it entered in 2007, Ecuador resumed membership in the same year and Gabon in 2016. Angola extracts about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) while Gabon, Ecuador and Equatorial Guinea are relatively small producers.
So more important for Opec’s clout since last year has been the output cut deal struck with non-Opec states. Opec produces about 32 million bpd currently, while the “Nopec” countries it has aligned with, notably Russia, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Oman, yield about 18 million bpd, of which 11 million bpd alone comes from the big bear, Russia.
Opec’s strength – and weakness – has come from its diversity. Excepting perhaps diamonds, it has been one of the longest-surviving, and surely the most influential, producers’ groups. Although its Middle East members have inevitably dominated, Venezuela, Nigeria and, in earlier years, Indonesia have all had key roles. This has prevented it becoming sucked into the morass of Middle East politics or being seen purely as an Arab pressure group.
But there has always been tension between producers with large, long-lived reserves and relatively small populations – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE – with those seeking to maximise short-term prices, such as Algeria and Nigeria. Saudi Arabia has sought to deter competitors with major undeveloped reserves, such as Venezuela in the 1990s and Iraq today, from making a “dash for growth” at its expense.
The motivation for joining Opec today is very different from what it was in the 1960s – when the goal was to bargain collectively to extract better tax terms and control over pricing from the western oil firms. Production quotas and cuts came along in the 1980s. Now all are concerned by the threat from US shale, which cannot and will not ever align with Opec.
Equatorial Guinea hopes membership will revive interest in its upstream sector, as its main field, Zafiro, is in decline. Higher prices generally will help to revive worldwide exploration, but it is not clear how cutting production will draw investors to Malabo specifically.
Several new oil states are emerging that might also stake a claim: Ghana, Uganda, Kenya and Senegal in Africa and Guyana in South America. Sudan and South Sudan, both part of the “Nopec” agreement, have previously talked about becoming formal members of Opec.
From the bigger producers among the “Nopec” states, Mexico did not join in the 1970s, and probably will not join now, because of its closeness to the US and its desire to turn around its declining output. Malaysia is not a net oil exporter any more, while Oman and Bahrain gain more from retaining freedom of action, and are already closely aligned through the GCC.
Russia and its former Soviet colleagues are, for now, happy with their informal alliance. Moscow, feeling itself head of a great power, is not likely to acknowledge parity with Riyadh. It gains more as a mediator, deal-maker and, when it suits Russian interests again, free-rider.
So while Opec may well pick up a few smaller members, it is unlikely to do more than hold the line on its market share as shale expands. To retain its relevance and influence, it will have to continue, deepen and formalise cooperation with a willing “Nopec” coalition. But herding these very different players in the same direction is a new challenge for the venerable organisation.
Robin Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The%20specs
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UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
RESULT
Argentina 0 Croatia 3
Croatia: Rebic (53'), Modric (80'), Rakitic (90' 1)
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
FIGHT CARD
Sara El Bakkali v Anisha Kadka (Lightweight, female)
Mohammed Adil Al Debi v Moaz Abdelgawad (Bantamweight)
Amir Boureslan v Mahmoud Zanouny (Welterweight)
Abrorbek Madaminbekov v Mohammed Al Katheeri (Featherweight)
Ibrahem Bilal v Emad Arafa (Super featherweight)
Ahmed Abdolaziz v Imad Essassi (Middleweight)
Milena Martinou v Ilham Bourakkadi (Bantamweight, female)
Noureddine El Agouti v Mohamed Mardi (Welterweight)
Nabil Ouach v Ymad Atrous (Middleweight)
Nouredin Samir v Zainalabid Dadachev (Lightweight)
Marlon Ribeiro v Mehdi Oubahammou (Welterweight)
Brad Stanton v Mohamed El Boukhari (Super welterweight
POSSIBLE ENGLAND EURO 2020 SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope, Dean Henderson.
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kieran Trippier, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Tyrone Mings, Ben Chilwell, Fabian Delph.
Midfielders: Declan Rice, Harry Winks, Jordan Henderson, Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Forwards: Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson-Odoi.
