My Chinese tour guide has not heard of this year's Nobel Peace Prize winner.
I am in Beijing and have just read the news in the lounge of the Fairmont hotel in Beijing. The tour guide who takes me to the Forbidden City is a young, bubbly lifelong Beijinger named Sharon. She has a two-year-old son and works part-time as a guide, she says in fluent English. She is 29, educated, clearly bright and throws out statistics with the virtuosity of an archer shooting arrows.
Do you know how much Beijing's population is? … 20 million. Do you know how many cars there are in Beijing? … 4.7 million. Car sales in China could hit 17 million this year, up 25 per cent from last year. China has overtaken the US as the world's largest car manufacturer and seller with an increase of about 40 per cent year-on-year.
Sharon rattles off these numbers as we sit parked in traffic on the second ring road, behind a long line of cars. To change the subject, I ask her if she knows of the Chinese dissident who won the Peace Prize. No, she shakes her head. Is he famous?
I Google Liu Xiaobo's name to make sure I have the spelling right and get an error message. I Google "Nobel Peace Prize" and draw a blank. It is one thing to hear about Chinese censorship in the news. It is quite another to live in a world in which Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are inaccessible. This, then, is the Chinese paradox. The country that is on its way to becoming the next big superpower is treating its citizens as children. And many of them who are young and have never left China, such as my tour guide Sharon, do not even know what they are missing. Sharon is happy here, she says. And proud to be Chinese.
"Perhaps history will repeat itself," she says as we stand outside the Emperor's bedroom in the Forbidden City. "Imperial China's time has come."
Thanks to double-digit GDP growth and its hard-working people, China is heaving and morphing right before our very eyes. Buildings tower above hutongs (narrow old-city lanes lined with houses), and entire new cities are being created to make room for the people. Most of the Chinese who service tourists ride the subway for two hours (one-way) to work at offices and hotels in the central business district. Skyrocketing property prices are making the Chinese question fundamental assumptions - such as the preference for a son. In China, the boy's side pays for the marriage and the housing.
A simple wedding at, say, the Crowne Plaza, costs 70,000 yuan (Dh38,695), says an administrative assistant I meet. Parents of sons have to put away 500,000 yuan for what is called a "marriage fund", or a housing downpayment. As home prices go through the roof, a daughter suddenly seems more desirable than a son to the pragmatic Chinese mindset that enjoys money with less angst than say, more Buddhist cultures.
In Shanghai and across China about 25,000 new people sign up with small trading companies such as Guotai Junan Securities to trade on the local stock market. Unlike the US or the UK, where individuals tend to invest through employee pension schemes or through mutual fund companies, here in China, a growing number of investors prefer to trade every day. For a small commission, companies such as Guotai Junan will open an account and provide the client access to the latest market numbers.
Students, retirees and middle managers come in and sit at a computer terminal, trading money, talking stocks, smoking cigarettes and comparing notes. One man named Hu worked at a car company, making 2,000 yuan per month before quitting to trade full-time. Now, he says, he makes 10,000 yuan per month from his investments alone, and has more than three million yuan in assets.
The world may talk about currency pressures but here on the ground all those complex macroeconomic issues take on a human tone.
This week's issue of That's Shanghai, a local magazine, talks about "Shanghai's wealth gap", in which a trainee chef at Malone's restaurant makes 1,200 yuan a month; a 24-year-old marketing assistant makes 4,500 yuan; a product manager, 23,000 yuan; an advertising executive 66,000 yuan; and an ex-investment banker named Jane, who now simply trades her capital of 340 million yuan and plays video games for fun. All these people are participants in the gyrations of the dollar, euro and the yuan, but they see it through a different prism.
Consider: China's trade surplus last month fell 15.7 per cent to settle on a five-month low of US$16.88 billion, (Dh62bn), down nearly 40 per cent from the July surplus of $28.7bn. Exports last month rose 25.1 per cent compared with September last year. But here is how the Chinese view these numbers. A Xinhua news agency survey conducted last month found that the profit margin for export-oriented labour-intensive industries such as the manufacturing of garments, toys, footwear and car parts has dropped below 5 per cent this year "leaving little room for those companies to afford a stronger yuan", as the Shanghai Daily says. In that same newspaper, Liang Yaowen, the director of the foreign trade department of Guangdong Province, where most of these export businesses are located, was quoted as saying: "If we bow to United States government pressure and let the yuan rise further and faster, the outlook for Chinese exporters will become very dire."
The hard-working exporters and the sweat shops they run are only one small piece of the pie. The affluent in China are much more visible.
In Beijing, for instance, travel companies say that wealthy Chinese now spend more than $8,000 for game-hunting vacations in South Africa shooting ostrich, impala, zebras and blesbok and then curing and stuffing the animals to adorn their living rooms or offices.
The question then becomes: if the people are so prosperous, why can't the government become more open? Regimes that control citizens' activities may make sense in bleak times when resources are scarce and hard to distribute. But China is pulling millions of its people out of poverty every year and putting them on the road to affluence; and the rich, history demonstrates, are not often the revolutionaries. Then why control them so much?
No one that I met in China had an answer for that. Not the hundreds of visitors walking about in Tiananmen Square.
Not even the European expatriates who were thronging the posh bars of Sanlitun in droves.
Shoba Narayan is a journalist based in Bangalore and the author of Monsoon Diary
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'The%20Alchemist's%20Euphoria'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EArtist%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kasabian%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELabel%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EColumbia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The years Ramadan fell in May
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’