From the standpoint of how market conditions could evolve, purely economic consideration of the US points to sluggish demand for energy there.
It may be worth revisiting the last comparable period of US economic difficulty that ran from 1980 to 1986.
While the onset of a strong economic recovery during this six-year period may be traced back to 1983, energy demand kept falling on the back of conservation and average oil prices tumbled sharply in 1986.
In other words, any onset of robust growth in the US will in all probability muscle oil demand into expansion. But, if history is anything to go by, oil prices may take longer to revive than economic growth.
Amid a retrenchment in net imports and domestic demand, the US oil market is oversupplied. The price of crude plunged on Friday as the US energy department reported that US stockpiles rose more than expected last week, which points to weak fuel demand.
The US is the world's largest consumer of oil with a 23 per cent share of the global total last year. It is also its biggest importer, bringing in 60 per cent of its total consumption. Since December of last year, its net imports - imports less exports - of crude oil and petroleum products have been falling steadily; last August, they were at their January 2000 trough when Brent crude was at US$27 a barrel.
Along with this sluggish demand, the US supply of crude oil, the world's third-largest after Saudi and Russia, continues to rise with little prospect of it soon shifting into deficit. In fact, net domestic supply - total supply less net imports - is about the same level of its December 2003 peak when oil was at just $30 a barrel. If these figures are indicative of how oil prices will pan out in the near term, then one may suppose that the oil market may be susceptible to a harsh correction this winter.
Bringing this into sharper focus, the supply-demand imbalance in the world's largest buyer of crude oil and its experience in the period from 1980 to 1986 could easily suggest that oil's next move is on a downwards leg. It would be easy - but wrong this time - to reach that conclusion. The rogue aspect in the current situation is rising demand from Asia.
This explains why trying to meet in part this surge in demand, Saudi Arabia has embarked on a US$100 billion (Dh367bn) upgrade of oil and gas production and refining.
Last week, the International Energy Agency revised upwards its estimates of global oil demand which is now likely to feature growth in the current quarter compared with the fourth quarter last year, after five quarters of decline.
News on rising Chinese imports in particular helped oil prices. Chinese net oil imports hit 4.47 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, slightly below the record of 4.62 million bpd last July. That counters earlier calculations which, seizing on the vast 1 million bpd Chinese inventory build-up for July, noted that Chinese imports were likely to underperform the normal response to GDP growth.
Investment buying, too, may reinforce a stronger Asian demand. After all, expectations are not divorced from global fundamentals and do feed back into one another.
What all this means for the spot market for oil is that, while it is subject to a whole lot of volatility on the back of speculative trading, it may well diverge from US economic fundamentals this winter.
Dr Salwa Hammami Labib is a senior economist at Arqaam Capital
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
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Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Shooting Ghosts: A U.S. Marine, a Combat Photographer, and Their Journey Back from War by Thomas J. Brennan and Finbarr O’Reilly
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million