The "undercover economist" Tim Harford recently wrote: "The wonderful thing about a forecast is that both the forecaster and his audience feel that something profound has been expressed."
He was discussing the eruption of New Year forecasts coming in every direction, but especially in economics and finance. Everybody, it seems, is taking a stab at the level of the S&P 500, or the price of gold, or the dollar/euro rate at the end of December.
Now, I'm no economist, but I cannot resist the urge to peer into the crystal ball at least once a year.
So here, from my training in the "informed hunch, journalist gut-instinct" school of forecasting, are four predictions for 2013.
1. There will be a settlement in the long-running battle between the Al Gosaibi family of Saudi Arabia and Maan Al Sanea. Since May 2009 the two sides have been flinging everything at each other in a global war of words.
But both are exhausted, not least by the drain on their finances, and I hear over recent weeks that there is a mood to finally close the chapter and get on with life.
What kind of settlement is still being discussed. The Al Gosaibis are said to be close to a deal with their Saudi creditors, and the Saudi authorities are encouraging Mr Al Sanea to get involved in a general entente.
The Al Gosaibis may have to make a substantial sacrifice, like the sale of their lucrative drinks bottling business, to clinch a deal.
Foreign banks, out of pocket to the tune of billions of dollars, are unlikely to figure in the deal. Still, a partial peace is better than all-out war.
2. The legal action brought last year by Royal Bank of Scotland and two other international banks against a unit of Dubai Holding will be quietly dropped.
The action, brought in the autumn in a London arbitration court, caused a stir at the time, threatening to upset delicate restructuring negotiations. It was seen as a "line in the sand" by stressed creditors to Dubai Inc.
But as time has passed and no further information surfaced, it seems the action, set in train by legal rather than banking executives, brings no advantage to either side.
RBS has a big commercial banking and trade finance operation in Dubai, which it continues to see as a regional hub; Dubai Holding is on the cusp of some delicate negotiations over billions of dollars worth of debt maturing soon. Courtroom hostilities, even in the privacy of an arbitration chamber, are counter productive. The case will simply fade away.
3. More UAE companies will follow the example of NMC Health and list on the London Stock Market this year.
NMC resisted local pressure and chose London as the market to raise about £120 million (Dh711m) last spring. The UAE market authorities took the move badly, seeing either the Abu Dhabi market or the two in Dubai as NMC's natural home.
But the move has been a qualified success. The cash was raised, the share price performance has been solid if not stellar (though there has been an interesting uptick in recent weeks).
I hear at least two other UAE corporations are in final preparations for a London move that could be announced during the first quarter.
4. There will be further progress towards consolidation of UAE stock exchanges.
This, of course, talks directly to prediction number 3, above. Most market experts, national and foreign, believe UAE equities have too little liquidity and trading volume to justify the existence of three stock markets.
Master plans for consolidation have been on the drawing board for some time; there has been some progress in establishing a common trading platform between the two Dubai markets; less so with any commonality of interest between the capital and Dubai.
The impetus for a new round of consolidation will come eventually through the regulators in the two cities, which are increasingly open to the idea.
There you go. If my four predictions come true, you read it here first. If not, as Mr Harford says, "nobody remembers forecasts anyway".
fkane@thenational.ae
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Read more about the coronavirus
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
Inside%20Out%202
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2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
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'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
Dunki
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This is an info box
- info goes here
- and here
- and here
RoboCop%3A%20Rogue%20City
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Los Angeles, from Dh4,975 return, including taxes. The flight time is 16 hours. Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico and Southwest all fly direct from Los Angeles to San Jose del Cabo from Dh1,243 return, including taxes. The flight time is two-and-a-half hours.
The trip
Lindblad Expeditions National Geographic’s eight-day Whales Wilderness itinerary costs from US$6,190 (Dh22,736) per person, twin share, including meals, accommodation and excursions, with departures in March and April 2018.
Points about the fast fashion industry Celine Hajjar wants everyone to know
- Fast fashion is responsible for up to 10 per cent of global carbon emissions
- Fast fashion is responsible for 24 per cent of the world's insecticides
- Synthetic fibres that make up the average garment can take hundreds of years to biodegrade
- Fast fashion labour workers make 80 per cent less than the required salary to live
- 27 million fast fashion workers worldwide suffer from work-related illnesses and diseases
- Hundreds of thousands of fast fashion labourers work without rights or protection and 80 per cent of them are women
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
India squad for fourth and fifth Tests
Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rahul, Shaw, Pujara, Rahane (vc), Karun, Karthik (wk), Pant (wk), Ashwin, Jadeja, Pandya, Ishant, Shami, Umesh, Bumrah, Thakur, Vihari
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
