The economic contraction wrought by efforts to contain the coronavirus is shredding inflation. Now deflation, a prolonged period of falling prices, is stalking the globe. The collapsing oil market is both a symptom of weaker demand and cause for a deepening slump.
Huge levels of stimulus are likely to be required long after the pandemic subsides. Yet concerns about prices moving up – or even down, for that matter – are starting to feel like an afterthought.
Even allowing for decent bounces in growth later this year and in 2021, it's likely to be a long time before anything resembling normal price increases reappear.
That's a mistake. For decades, inflation was the most-preferred way to assess economic health; whatever its flaws, targets in the vicinity of 2 per cent gave global central banks a quantifiable guidepost. If there are alternatives, they haven't been proposed.
Few, if any, central banks have a measurable employment target; the same goes for gross domestic product. They have estimates and projections, but not fixed goals. Repairing labour markets and supporting the overall economy could very well become the new rationale, but let's say so and add some numbers to anchor policy going forward.
It's understandable that the human tragedy of climbing unemployment and the nosedive in the broader economy is taking precedence for policymakers. Inflation targets seem arcane, even churlish, in times of existential crisis. Certainly, there’s little prospect of a meaningful spike, if history is anything to go by. A decade ago, conservative economists wrote an open letter to then-Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warning that the Fed's quantitative easing would provoke runaway inflation and dollar debasement. This didn't happen.
Even allowing for decent bounces in growth later this year and in 2021, it's likely to be a long time before anything resembling normal price increases reappear. Remember that policymakers were fretting about anaemic inflation even before the pandemic struck. In its wake, global inflation may slip below zero, according to the consulting firm Oxford Economics. Consumer prices in advanced economies will rise just 0.5 per cent, down from 1.5 per cent in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund. In Japan and South Korea, inflation will be much closer to zero; in Singapore and Thailand it will likely be negative. Even Australia and New Zealand, where levels were relatively close to target before the pandemic, are reviewing their forecasts.
If central bankers are worried about these figures, it’s not the first thing that flows from their lips. In Japan, inflation has curiously faded from prominence in recent communication from the central bank. Elsewhere, policymakers are pursuing inflationary programmes without devoting much attention to the consequences. New Zealand, which used to trumpet its role as a pioneer of such targets, may start buying bonds directly from the government. Aimed at adding to fiscal firepower, the concept was sacrilege not long ago. Such measures are already under way in Indonesia and the Philippines.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank recently reviewed the first month of zero rates and efforts to cap bond yields. Governor Philip Lowe emphasised a rout in employment and the severity of the decline in GDP. Prospects of deflation and prolonged low inflation took a back seat in a question-and-answer session after his April 21 speech.
As the coronavirus spreads, unemployment will surge and special monetary operations will continue. But when the shock of the lockdown wears off and the extent of the slump becomes apparent, it will be easy to forget how these expansive policies started in the first place. They will need to be justified, especially if – or more likely, when – central bank excursions into fiscal policy become contentious. At that point, monetary authorities need to be armed for the inevitable backlash.
If the direction of prices remains the sun around which policy evolves, better hope that inflation (or deflation) re-enters the vocabulary soon. The emerging risk is that we occupy a halfway house of elevating jobs and growth, without a formal metric that defines success. In that case, policy could easily spin out of orbit.
Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies
• Bloomberg
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
BIG SPENDERS
Premier League clubs spent £230 million (Dh1.15 billion) on January transfers, the second-highest total for the mid-season window, the Sports Business Group at Deloitte said in a report.
Match info:
Real Betis v Sevilla, 10.45pm (UAE)
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
'Midnights'
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Scoreline
Ireland 16 (Tries: Stockdale Cons: Sexton Pens: Sexton 3)
New Zealand 9 (Pens: Barrett 2 Drop Goal: Barrett)
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
Second Test
In Dubai
Pakistan 418-5 (declared)
New Zealand 90 and 131-2 (follow on)
Day 3: New Zealand trail by 197 runs with 8 wickets remaining
Racecard
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Al%20Bateen%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Al%20Khaleej%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Al%20Nahyan%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Al%20Karamah%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Al%20Salam%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Premier League results
Saturday
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Arsenal 1
Bournemouth 0 Manchester City 1
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 Huddersfield Town 0
Burnley 1 Crystal Palace 3
Manchester United 3 Southampton 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Cardiff City 0
West Ham United 2 Newcastle United 0
Sunday
Watford 2 Leicester City 1
Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
Everton 0 Liverpool 0
TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, semi-final result:
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
Liverpool win 4-3 on aggregate
Champions Legaue final: June 1, Madrid
How to donate
Text the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
6025 - Dh 20
2252 - Dh 50
2208 - Dh 100
6020 - Dh 200
*numbers work for both Etisalat and du
The five pillars of Islam
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
Indoor Cricket World Cup
Venue Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE squad Saqib Nazir (captain), Aaqib Malik, Fahad Al Hashmi, Isuru Umesh, Nadir Hussain, Sachin Talwar, Nashwan Nasir, Prashath Kumara, Ramveer Rai, Sameer Nayyak, Umar Shah, Vikrant Shetty
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%2060kW%20lithium-ion%20phosphate%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20Up%20to%20201bhp%3Cbr%3E0%20to%20100kph%3A%207.3%20seconds%3Cbr%3ERange%3A%20418km%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh149%2C900%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
Grand slam winners since July 2003
Who has won major titles since Wimbledon 2003 when Roger Federer won his first grand slam
Roger Federer 19 (8 Wimbledon, 5 Australian Open, 5 US Open, 1 French Open)
Rafael Nadal 16 (10 French Open, 3 US Open, 2 Wimbledon, 1 Australian Open)
Novak Djokovic 12 (6 Australian Open, 3 Wimbledon, 2 US Open, 1 French Open)
Andy Murray 3 (2 Wimbledon, 1 US Open)
Stan Wawrinka 3 (1 Australian Open, 1 French Open, 1 US Open)
Andy Roddick 1 (1 US Open)
Gaston Gaudio 1 (1 French Open)
Marat Safin 1 (1 Australian Open)
Juan Martin del Potro 1 (1 US Open)
Marin Cilic 1 (1 US Open)
