The end of a long and difficult pandemic year for oil marked a changeover of the government in the United States, which is now led by President Joe Biden.
What lies ahead could mean a major change for the oil markets.
Ex-president Donald Trump reshaped the country's shale oil policy with an eye to dominate global energy markets and in just four years, the country’s exports became a force to be reckoned with.
Between 2016 and 2020, US shale grew aggressively and established a balance of market power with Opec. The group of oil-producing countries constrained production several times amid negative sentiment, supply chain disruptions during the US-China trade dispute and their subsequent impact on oil demand.
Both Opec and US shale tumbled into the pandemic precipice last year.
Low point for Opec export revenues in 2020
In 2020, Opec’s oil export revenues fell to their lowest point in 18 years, according to an estimate by the US Energy Information Administration. The coronavirus pandemic and low demand for oil pushed export revenues down to $323 billion for the year, compared with $595bn in 2019, the EIA said.
Opec’s export revenues for 2021 may rise to $397bn provided production cuts ease and global oil demand recovers, according to the EIA. In its January short-term outlook, the EIA forecast Brent crude price to average $53 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, up from $42 a barrel in 2020.
The US domestic oil industry also suffered considerably during the first and second waves of Covid-19. Energy giant Halliburton lost $2.9bn in 2020 and the country’s largest energy company – Exxon Mobil – said all four quarters of 2020 were loss-making.
EIA expectations for 2021
After a devastating 2020 for the international oil markets, what does 2021 hold for the rivals?
Global liquid fuel consumption is expected to rise by 5.6 million barrels per day in 2021 and 3.3 million bpd in 2022, according to the EIA.
Opec expects crude oil to remain a vital part of the energy mix, while acknowledging that climate change and the move to cleaner energy is a top priority
In 2020, US domestic crude oil production is expected to have fallen to 11.3 million bpd from a record high of 12.2 million bpd in 2019. Another slide to 11.1 million bpd from 11.3 million bpd is expected in 2021 before production rises to 11.5 million bpd in 2022.
Opec is forecast to produce more than double US crude oil production at 27.2 million bpd in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million bpd in 2020, the EIA said.
This analysis puts Opec firmly ahead of the US shale industry, at least in terms of output.
US energy policy under Biden
Much of the industry’s assumptions are based on US shale continuing the path to export growth, but what if the new administration is less supportive?
Public policy already shows signs of shifting as energy companies may face increased climate risk disclosure rules and an end to new drilling permits for federal land, along with the elimination of tax subsidies for the oil and gas industry.
Nonetheless, now that oil export revenues contribute to GDP, it is unlikely that there will be a full reversal to the US’s previous position of being a net crude oil importer, especially now that the US economy has to recover as quickly as possible from the pandemic. Vaccination programmes are in motion, but will take many months to reach the goal of immunising at least 70 per cent of the population.
Green energy
In the coming years, Opec and US shale face rising competition from green energy companies. Indeed, many of the major fossil fuel companies are shifting their production to green energy sources as climate change policies affect funding and demand. Opec expects crude oil to remain a vital part of the energy mix, while acknowledging that climate change and the move to cleaner energy is a top priority.
To conclude, Opec and US shale still have the brakes on because of anaemic demand for crude oil. Barring an unforeseen development in the US policy on exports, the rivalry is set to continue as oil-producing countries strive to recover from the pandemic. The next two years could see major changes in the balance of market power.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Europe wide
Some of French groups are threatening Friday to continue their journey to Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the European Union, and to meet up with drivers from other countries on Monday.
Belgian authorities joined French police in banning the threatened blockade. A similar lorry cavalcade was planned for Friday in Vienna but cancelled after authorities prohibited it.
Company profile
Name: One Good Thing
Founders: Bridgett Lau and Micheal Cooke
Based in: Dubai
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 5 employees
Stage: Looking for seed funding
Investors: Self-funded and seeking external investors
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Tuesday (UAE kick-off times)
Leicester City v Brighton (9pm)
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United (11.15pm)
Wednesday
Manchester United v Sheffield United (9pm)
Newcastle United v Aston Villa (9pm)
Norwich City v Everton (9pm)
Wolves v Bournemouth (9pm)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (11.15pm)
Thursday
Burnley v Watford (9pm)
Southampton v Arsenal (9pm)
Chelsea v Manchester City (11.15pm)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWafeq%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%202019%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadim%20Alameddine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Esoftware%20as%20a%20service%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%243%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERaed%20Ventures%20and%20Wamda%2C%20among%20others%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Juvenile arthritis
Along with doctors, families and teachers can help pick up cases of arthritis in children.
Most types of childhood arthritis are known as juvenile idiopathic arthritis. JIA causes pain and inflammation in one or more joints for at least six weeks.
Dr Betina Rogalski said "The younger the child the more difficult it into pick up the symptoms. If the child is small, it may just be a bit grumpy or pull its leg a way or not feel like walking,” she said.
According to The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases in US, the most common symptoms of juvenile arthritis are joint swelling, pain, and stiffness that doesn’t go away. Usually it affects the knees, hands, and feet, and it’s worse in the morning or after a nap.
Limping in the morning because of a stiff knee, excessive clumsiness, having a high fever and skin rash are other symptoms. Children may also have swelling in lymph nodes in the neck and other parts of the body.
Arthritis in children can cause eye inflammation and growth problems and can cause bones and joints to grow unevenly.
In the UK, about 15,000 children and young people are affected by arthritis.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
