There is a sense of deja vu as we enter the New Year in the precious metals market.
Last year proved to be gold’s best year since 2010 with a 12.5 per cent gain in price, while its nemesis the US dollar had its worst year since 2003 and lost 9.8 per cent against a basket of global currencies.
So if 2017 was like 2010, will there be a follow through with a really epic year for precious metals in 2018 like 2011? That was the year gold hit an all-time high of $1,923 and silver fell a dollar short of its $50 all-time high of 1980.
Yet amazingly the strong performance of gold in 2017 occurred during a period when many investors became bored with the metal.
Even in the unexpected rally between Christmas and New Year the popular trader’s website Wall Street Window told me it received just three emails after publishing its gold stock tips, and only mine had anything positive to say.
A former Dubai journalist colleague now working in Toronto, one of the biggest markets for gold equities, dismissed my last positive article in The National saying that nobody he talked to there could get the least bit excited about gold for 2018.
Of course this is what you would expect. Gold prices have been chip-chopping sideways since 2011, albeit the charts show a clear turn upwards from early 2016 onwards and a clear breakout in 2017.
But when everybody is a bear and loaded onto the opposite side of a trade that is usually the best moment to go long, especially if you can see a catalyst or two to keep the upward momentum going, and preferably accelerating.
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Read more from Peter Cooper:
12 festive tips on how to invest in 2018
Could gold do a bitcoin and hit $10,000 an ounce in 2018?
What to buy when the stock market crashes
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I’ve taken this contrarian approach in many different asset classes over the years, and while being patient can at times be almost as painful as a bad back, it pays dividends more often than it ends in disappointment.
So, why be optimistic about the outlook for precious metals?
First up I suppose the crash in bitcoin and the other 1,200 so-called cryptocurrencies is one reason to buy precious metals, if only because the buying mania of the past few months definitely depressed the gold price, which got as high as $1,350 last summer in comparison to its 2017 closing price of $1,305.
Conversely, as bitcoin bit the dust between Christmas and the New Year gold prices suddenly sprinted up $50 at a time of year when not much usually happens to prices.
Last month, I opined that gold could 'do a bitcoin' in 2018 and also suddenly take off into a massive price spike.
In the past, such investment mania sell-offs of speculative ‘assets’ always led to a switch into precious metals.
If you look at the multi-year price chart for gold, then it is nicely positioned for a bitcoin-style final price spike to finish this super bull market than the early 2000s when gold was around $300 an ounce.
But under what sort of conditions would the general public and investment community flock to buy gold?
The last time this happened was in 1979 to1980, after a decade of steadily rising gold prices, apart from the nasty 50 per cent correction in 1975 to 1976, not unlike the 2011 to 2015 pull back.
Then it was a combination of runaway US retail price inflation at 18 per cent, and the American hostage crisis in Tehran after the Iranian Revolution, that catapulted gold prices up 400 per cent in a year. The US dollar was also in a complete mess.
Remember that last year was the dollar’s worst year since 2003. It came off a 14-year high and so could well have a lot of downside to come as Donald Trump’s tax plans pile up US debts. Gold and the US dollar generally move in opposite directions.
Inflation is low, though we do have asset price hyperinflation with the Dow Jones Index up 25 per cent last year. Is this an achilles heel?
However, if history is any guide then gold won’t really power ahead in 2018 absent a major geopolitical event. That said there is no shortage of potential catastrophes out there.
President Donald Trump is far more aggressive in his rhetoric than his predecessor and North Korea is a potential flash point. You also do not have to be very creative to think of unexpected crises that could emerge in the Middle East.
There are even serious commentators who think moves to back the dollar or yuan with gold this year could send gold to $10,000 an ounce, as this column discussed last month.
But most probably the thing to watch for is the obvious oversized gorilla sat in your living room: stock, bond and real estate market valuations are very stretched by ultra-low interest rates that are now on the verge of moving up.
I say ‘on the verge of moving up’ because the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hikes have not been reflected in 10-year US Treasury yields. When, and not if, that happens watch out for serious corrections in all three major asset classes.
Now where does the smart money go as a safe haven in such crises? Precious metals can get sold off with everything else as they were in 2008, but they always rebound fastest and show the quickest growth thereafter.
Indeed, precious metals are often sold as an insurance policy against a rainy day in other major asset markets.
Perhaps that is the real reason to be optimistic about higher gold and silver prices this year; after such a strong performance in 2017, safe haven insurance will be in demand.
Peter Cooper has been writing about finance in the Gulf for more than 20 years
Rebel%20Moon%20-%20Part%20One%3A%20A%20Child%20of%20Fire
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs: 2018 Alfa Romeo Stelvio
Price, base: Dh198,300
Engine: 2.0L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 280hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7L / 100km
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
more from Janine di Giovanni
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The biog
Place of birth: Kalba
Family: Mother of eight children and has 10 grandchildren
Favourite traditional dish: Al Harees, a slow cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled cracked or coarsely ground wheat mixed with meat or chicken
Favourite book: My early life by Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
Favourite quote: By Sheikh Zayed, the UAE's Founding Father, “Those who have no past will have no present or future.”
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bedu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khaled%20Al%20Huraimel%2C%20Matti%20Zinder%2C%20Amin%20Al%20Zarouni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%2C%20metaverse%2C%20Web3%20and%20blockchain%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Currently%20in%20pre-seed%20round%20to%20raise%20%245%20million%20to%20%247%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Privately%20funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
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