Expectations of a V-shaped global economic recovery flattened last week, giving way to more realistic U-shaped or even saucer-shaped scenarios of post-coronavirus growth.
Markets were lifted 10 days ago by the bounce back in US jobs growth in May, showing a rise of 2.5 million non-farm payroll jobs. It suggested the US economy, and by extension the world, was on course for a V-shaped economic recovery. Since then, however, the barrage of gloomier economic prognoses has been relentless, returning the emphasis to more protracted recovery scenarios and, in turn, bringing stock market rallies to an abrupt halt.
The idea that jobs will simply recover as quickly as they were lost always appeared quite fanciful.
Markets should have already been cautious about reading too much into the May US employment figures. Coming after 20 million jobs were lost in two months, the rebound was encouraging but still a long way from signalling the all-clear. Payrolls are notoriously volatile statistics at the best of times, and so can be expected to be equally if not even more erratic at the worst of times, with the unemployment rate at 13.3 per cent still higher than at any other time since the 1940s. The idea that jobs will simply recover as quickly as they were lost always appeared quite fanciful; it will probably take many months – if not years – to get the economy back to where it was before the virus, a point usefully highlighted by the US Federal Reserve’s gloomy forecast a few days later.
Even before the Fed said anything, the World Bank had chimed in with its updated economic outlook forecasting the world to shrink by 5.2 per cent this year. This represents the deepest recession since the Second World War, with advanced economies set to slump by 7 per cent and emerging ones by 2.5 per cent.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s analysis a day later was worse as it looked at two scenarios. In the first, global gross domestic product would drop 6 per cent this year if a second virus wave is avoided, while in the second scenario, global GDP fell 7.6 per cent in a second wave followed by 2.8 per cent growth in 2021, with output not returning to pre-recession levels for at least two years.
The OECD said: “Most people see a V-shaped recovery but we think it is going to stop halfway. By the end of 2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession over the past 100 years outside wartime with dire and long-lasting consequences for people, firms and governments.”
The OECD also singled out the UK as likely to be the worst-performing, with growth falling by 11.5 per cent in its first scenario while dropping by 14 per cent under its second. As bad luck would have it, UK GDP reported for April last week already showed the UK contracting at an unprecedented 20.4 per cent month-on-month.
While the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 0.0 per cent to 0.25 per cent at its meeting last week as expected, the central bank said the economy faces considerable risks over the medium term and strongly reiterated its commitment to using the spectrum of its tools for as long as necessary to provide support to the economy. In his comments following the meeting, the Fed chairman Jerome Powell was forceful, indicating that interest rates are expected to remain at current levels over the forecast period as he said “we are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”. The dot plot released with the statement showed that all but two members expect interest rates to remain at the current level through to 2022.
The economic growth projections released along with the statement explained why the Fed took such a dovish view, showing that its members expect unemployment to fall to only 9.3 per cent at the end of 2020 and to 6.5 per cent in 2021, with no indication of a return to pre-Covid levels of below 4 per cent.
US GDP is expected to contract by 6.5 per cent in 2020 before rebounding only partially in 2021 by 5 per cent, while inflation was forecast to remain below the central bank’s target until 2022. While the Fed did not say so explicitly, its outlook lent credence to other forecasts that recovery, when it comes, will be U-shaped at best.
Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
Key developments in maritime dispute
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre, 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: CVT
Power: 170bhp
Torque: 220Nm
Price: Dh98,900
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
Match info
Newcastle United 1
Joselu (11')
Tottenham Hotspur 2
Vertonghen (8'), Alli (18')
Company%20profile
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Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Coming soon
Torno Subito by Massimo Bottura
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
Virtuzone GCC Sixes
Date and venue Friday and Saturday, ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City
Time Matches start at 9am
Groups
A Blighty Ducks, Darjeeling Colts, Darjeeling Social, Dubai Wombats; B Darjeeling Veterans, Kuwait Casuals, Loose Cannons, Savannah Lions; C Awali Taverners, Darjeeling, Dromedary, Darjeeling Good Eggs
2019 ASIA CUP POTS
Pot 1
UAE, Iran, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia
Pot 2
China, Syria, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Qatar, Thailand
Pot 3
Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Palestine, Oman, India, Vietnam
Pot 4
North Korea, Philippines, Bahrain, Jordan, Yemen, Turkmenistan
Ukraine%20exports
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AUSTRALIA SQUAD v SOUTH AFRICA
Aaron Finch (capt), Shaun Marsh, Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, D'Arcy Short, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Adam Zampa
SQUADS
South Africa:
JP Duminy (capt), Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wkt), AB de Villiers, Robbie Frylinck, Beuran Hendricks, David Miller, Mangaliso Mosehle (wkt), Dane Paterson, Aaron Phangiso, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Tabraiz Shamsi
Bangladesh
Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Imrul Kayes, Liton Das (wkt), Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim (wkt), Nasir Hossain, Rubel Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Shafiul Islam, Soumya Sarkar, Taskin Ahmed
Fixtures
Oct 26: Bloemfontein
Oct 29: Potchefstroom
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
if you go
Red Joan
Director: Trevor Nunn
Starring: Judi Dench, Sophie Cookson, Tereza Srbova
Rating: 3/5 stars
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Tenet
Director: Christopher Nolan
Stars: John David Washington, Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debicki, Dimple Kapadia, Michael Caine, Kenneth Branagh
Rating: 5/5
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
Fight card
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) v Rey Nacionales (PHI)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROM) v Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR)
Catch 74kg
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) v Omar Hussein (JOR)
Strawweight (Female)
Weronika Zygmunt (POL) v Seo Ye-dam (KOR)
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) v Walid Laidi (ALG)
Lightweight
Leandro Martins (BRA) v Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW)
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) v Sofiane Benchohra (ALG)
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR)
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Glen Ranillo (PHI)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Aidan Aguilera (AUS)
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) Sasha Palatnikov (HKG)
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR)
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
SWEET%20TOOTH
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The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Asia Cup Qualifier
Venue: Kuala Lumpur
Result: Winners play at Asia Cup in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in September
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29: Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30: UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6: Final
Asia Cup
Venue: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Schedule: Sep 15-28
Teams: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, plus the winner of the Qualifier
