Fund managers are a smart bunch. Often very well remunerated to buy and sell financial securities, they are responsible for implementing a fund’s strategy and managing its trading activities. Ultimately, they oversee our mutual and pension funds and make important investment decisions that may affect our future life choices.
So, when one of the biggest US investment banks surveys more than 200 global fund managers every month, it pays to listen.
The latest report of these investors, who manage close to $600 billion in assets, finds that for the first time in more than a year, the Covid-19 pandemic is no longer the biggest risk for global financial markets. Every month since last February, those answering one of the longest-running polls of Wall Street investors highlighted the pandemic as their number one concern.
Instead, higher-than-expected inflation is weighing more heavily on their minds now, according to Bank of America's February Global Fud Manager Survey. Investors are primarily concerned that the economic recovery may unleash a surge of price growth that could be hard to contain.
And it is easy to see why they might think so. The return to normality has been boosted by unprecedented levels of stimulus from both central banks and governments.
Nowhere is this more pronounced than in the US, where President Joe Biden has just signed into law a new $1.9 trillion rescue package, which has prompted many economists to raise their growth forecasts for the world’s biggest economy.
Let us not forget this comes on top of the $900 billion raft of spending that the previous Trump administration unveiled in its dying days.
There might also be another bump to growth in the form of a potential $2bn infrastructure spending plan touted by the president in his election campaign.
It is notable that in previous surveys, fund managers had been more optimistic about a “goldilocks” scenario, where the world economy is not expanding or contracting by too much. In other words, above-trend growth paired with below-trend inflation.
But with more stimulus cheques landing on the doorsteps of US households earning less than $75,000 a year, a record number of investors now anticipate more rapid price increases in the coming year. This has sent shockwaves through the bond markets because inflation is the enemy of fixed-income securities.
This jump in inflation may not be a bad thing as it is certainly a way out of the massive debts that governments and central banks have run up
Yields, which rise as the price falls, have popped higher this year with those on the US 10-year Treasury bond, one of the world’s most closely watched interest rates, rising past 1.6 per cent from 0.9 per cent at the start of 2021. This highlights the extent to which investors have sold debt and are demanding a premium for lending to Uncle Sam.
In many ways, this jump in inflation, as long as it doesn’t go too far, may not be a bad thing as it is certainly a way out of the massive debts that governments and central banks have run up during both the post-financial crisis period and the pandemic.
Perhaps the more pertinent question for money managers if the inflation genie has been let out of the bottle is whether the market reaction is a short-term response to extraordinary stimulus and the re-opening of the economy? Or, is it more deep-rooted and long-term, which means central banks may need to think about how they control it?
The investor survey also underlined the enduring belief in a positive outlook and bullish stock markets, with nearly 90 per cent of respondents expecting company profits to grow. That is more than in the dot-com boom in the early 2000s and late 2009, when the global economy emerged from the global financial crisis.
With major global stock market indices currently trading well above long-term averages, the concern is that there is plenty of room for setbacks if company earnings start to disappoint.
Investors have put their money where their mouths are, taking their cash levels down to the lowest since March 2013. This was just before the US Federal Reserve sparked the infamous market “tantrum” by signalling its intent to wind down some of its 2008 crisis measures.
As we said at the start, fund managers are a shrewd bunch, but sometimes even the crowd can get it wrong. The authors of the survey admit the value of its use as a contrarian signal, that is to say, it can often pay to do the opposite of the consensus.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Primera Liga fixtures (all times UAE: 4 GMT)
Friday
Real Sociedad v Villarreal (10.15pm)
Real Betis v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Saturday
Alaves v Barcelona (8.15pm)
Levante v Deportivo La Coruna (10.15pm)
Girona v Malaga (10.15pm)
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid (12.15am)
Sunday
Espanyol v Leganes (8.15pm)
Eibar v Athletic Bilbao (8.15pm)
Getafe v Sevilla (10.15pm)
Real Madrid v Valencia (10.15pm)
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The struggle is on for active managers
David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.
The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 per cent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.
Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 per cent in 2015.
Other value-investing managers have also struggled, as a decade of historically low interest rates and the rise of passive investing and quant trading pushed growth stocks past their inexpensive brethren. Three Bays Capital and SPO Partners & Co., which sought to make wagers on undervalued stocks, closed in 2018. Mr Einhorn has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the poor performance this year, while remaining steadfast in his commitment to value investing.
Greenlight, which posted gains only in May and October, underperformed both the broader market and its peers in 2018. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4.4 per cent, including dividends, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, an early indicator of industry performance, fell 7 per cent through December. 28.
At the start of the year, Greenlight managed $6.3 billion in assets, according to a regulatory filing. By May, the firm was down to $5.5bn.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 4 (Mount 18',Werner 44', Hudson-Odoi 49', Havertz 85')
Morecambe 0
Company%C2%A0profile
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
World ranking (at month’s end)
Jan - 257
Feb - 198
Mar - 159
Apr - 161
May - 159
Jun – 162
Currently: 88
Year-end rank since turning pro
2016 - 279
2015 - 185
2014 - 143
2013 - 63
2012 - 384
2011 - 883
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Florida: The critical Sunshine State
Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
Results
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Rio Angie, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Trenchard, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Mulfit, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Waady, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 2,000m. Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
9.25pm:Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Friday's schedule at the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
GP3 qualifying, 10:15am
Formula 2, practice 11:30am
Formula 1, first practice, 1pm
GP3 qualifying session, 3.10pm
Formula 1 second practice, 5pm
Formula 2 qualifying, 7pm
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
