Albert Einstein, the theoretical physicist, is best known for discovering the law of relativity, but he clearly knew a thing or two about investing as well.
He famously called compound interest "the most powerful force in the universe" and he certainly had a point.
Compound interest is what makes saving money in the bank worthwhile. It can also be the cosmic engine driving your investment portfolio, especially if you buy dividend-paying stocks. So how do you harness Einstein's powerful force to deliver stellar returns?
The good news is that you can feel the power of compound interest simply by paying money into a savings account and patiently letting it grow in value, year after year.
In your first year, you will earn interest on your capital. The following year, you will earn interest both on the capital and the interest you have already earned.
This compounding process repeats itself year after year, which means you earn interest upon interest upon interest. It is like a snowball rolling down a hill, getting bigger and bigger, year after year after year. Provided, that is, you don't spend the interest. You have to leave it in your account to allow the compounding effect to gather momentum.
If you invested US$10,000 (Dh36,731) at 3 per cent a year, but withdrew all the interest every year, you would have $16,000 after 20 years. But if you allowed the interest to compound, your savings would grow to more than $18,000. That's pretty powerful. And when savings rates finally revive from today's miserable lows, the effect will be even more powerful.
The power of compounding isn't so strong when your savings generate just 1 per cent or 2 per cent a year. But there is a faster way to make your snowball: investing in the stocks of global blue-chip companies, many of which offer dividend yields of up to 5 per cent or 6 per cent a year.
Dividends are particularly important in today's turbulent economy when growth is much harder to come by, says Dan Dowding, the chief executive of IFAs Killik & Co in Dubai. "From day to day, investors focus mostly on share price movements. But dividends and, more importantly, dividend reinvestment, can have a much greater impact on your long-term returns."
In the long run, it is the compounding effect of reinvesting dividends that really makes you rich. Say you invested £100 (Dh590.82) in the UK stock market way back in 1899. If you spent all your dividends, it would be worth £22,239 in today's money, according to the long-term Barclays Equity Gilt study. But if you had reinvested them, it would be worth a massive £1.63 million.
It is the same story in the United States, Mr Dowding says. "One-hundred dollars invested at the end of 1925 would be worth $9,229 today if you had spent the dividends, but $299,395 if you had ploughed them back into your portfolio."
The longer you invest, the more important dividends become. "For the seriously long-term investor, dividends are where the action is," he says.
Over 12 months, 62 per cent of your investment returns are driven by market movements, according to a study by Societe Generale, with the remaining 38 per cent coming from dividends. Over five years, just 18 per cent of your total return comes from share price growth, with dividends making up the rest.
There are two elements to dividend return. First, the yield, which is calculated as the dividend payout divided by the market valuation of the company. If the dividend is $5 and the company is valued at $100, the yield is 5 per cent.
The second part is dividend growth. When company profits are growing, they raise their dividends to reward investors. Some companies strive to do this year after year because they see it as a mark of a well-run enterprise.
In the US, Procter & Gamble has increased its dividend every year for the past 56 years. Other familiar US names with a consistent track record of annual dividend rises include Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson (both 49 years), Colgate-Palmolive (48 years), Chubb Corp (46 years) and PepsiCo (39 years).
A stock that yields 6 per cent and raises its dividend by 5 per cent a year will double your money in just 12 years from income alone, according to the investment website, Motley Fool. Any capital growth will be on top of that.
Over the long term, the compounding effect of yield and dividend growth will account for more than 90 per cent of your total investment return, says Stuart Reeve, the head of BlackRock's global equity income team. "An investor who started with a $100,000 portfolio in 1970, would now be receiving total annual dividend income of $35,000. That's more than one third of their original investment, every year."
That compounding effect is even stronger than you realise.
There is another advantage to investing in companies with a strong dividend policy, Mr Reeve says. "They tend to be high-quality businesses, whose stocks exhibit relatively low volatility. When the market drops, they will typically fall by a smaller amount and return to profit faster. Over time, avoiding this 'volatility drag' can generate significantly greater returns."
Western companies, particularly in Britain and the US, have traditionally paid the most generous dividends, says Tim Harvey, the director of Offshore Online, an international broker. "That is slowly changing. Japanese companies are starting to pay income. So are many in China and the Far East."
You can cash in on the compounding effect of dividends by investing in mutual funds in the equity-income sector, Mr Harvey says. He tips UK equity income funds such as BlackRock UK Income and Invesco-Perpetual Income and Newton Global Higher Income, an international fund.
The Newton fund's top holdings include Roche Holdings, the Swiss pharmaceutical firm, Bayer, the German health care company, and SSE, a UK utility. All are good, solid dividend payers that more active investors might prefer to buy directly.
BlackRock Global Equity income is another attractive fund. Its top holdings include big name blue chips such as Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis and Glaxo.
Albert Einstein isn't the only famous person to appreciate the power of compounding. For John D Rockefeller, the late American industrialist, it made life worth living. "Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's to see my dividends coming in," he once said.
You may not have as much money as Rockefeller, but you can share in his pleasure (hopefully, you will also find other ways of having fun).
There is one more thing you can do. Manage your portfolio carefully to ensure the taxman isn't taking a cut of your annual dividend income. This is less of a problem if you hold your money offshore, but you may need to seek tax advice.
Einstein didn't get it completely right. There is one force in the universe more powerful than compound interest. The taxman.
pf@thenational.ae
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Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
The White Lotus: Season three
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
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Umm Al Emarat Park
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Al Bateen beach
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The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
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Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
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Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
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Price: from Dh850,000
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The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
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Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
