The US Congress is expected to approve a modest fiscal stimulus package, focusing on small business loans and extended unemployment benefits, when it meets for its "lame-duck session" after the November election, Pictet Wealth Management said on Wednesday.
A lame-duck session of Congress is a transitional period that occurs after the November elections, when it meets before a new presidential term begins in January.
“The upcoming income cliff will likely bring Congress together during the lame-duck session,” said Thomas Costerg, a senior US economist at the Swiss-based financial services company.
If Mr Biden wins, there will be stricter regulation, increase in corporate tax, income tax and capital gains tax ... and a weaker US dollar
“The US government has reacted forcefully to manage the budget deficit, but there is need for more aid. There will be a moderate fiscal stimulus package on the table be it under Joe Biden or Donald Trump. No fiscal stimulus will be a threat to US gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter.”
Mr Trump has raised hopes for a breakthrough in stimulus talks, saying he is willing to accept a large aid bill despite opposition from his own Republican party.
However, Mr Costerg said a second fiscal stimulus package will range between $750 billion and $1 trillion, well below the Covid-19 $2tn bill passed in March to boost the US economy. If Mr Biden wins Congress and the Senate, there will be a larger, green-focused stimulus package in the first half of next year, he added.
Mr Costerg said Mr Trumps looks set to lose the November election because of the economic shock of the pandemic and the sharp rise in unemployment. Citing earlier instances in which former US presidents Jimmy Carter and George Bush Senior lost their second terms because of shocks in the labour market, Mr Costerg said the US unemployment rate has increased from less than 4 per cent to 7.9 per cent this year.
Outlining different scenarios if either candidates win, César Pérez Ruiz, chief investment officer and head of investments at Pictet Wealth Management, said if Mr Trump wins, the US can expect more deregulation, loose fiscal policy, more tax cuts and a stronger US dollar. There will also be more confrontations with Iran on the nuclear deal as well as with China over the economy, technology and “to make them pay for the coronavirus”.
Meanwhile, if Mr Biden wins, there will be “stricter regulations, an increase in corporate tax, income tax and capital gains tax to fund the fiscal stimulus package, a weaker US dollar, multi-lateral policy style and reconsideration of the nuclear deal with Iran”, Mr Pérez Ruiz said.
He added that Mr Biden would take the US back to the Paris Agreement on climate change, while emerging markets will be a big beneficiary of a weaker US dollar.
However, both Mr Costerg and Mr Pérez Ruiz said US inflation is unlikely to pick up regardless of who wins the election. The US Federal Reserve is also likely to keep rates at zero during the entire mandate and continue with its quantitative easing strategy.
President Trump and his team believe the pandemic is temporary and things will go back to normal
Mr Pérez Ruiz warned that the biggest risk facing markets is a contested election, saying all asset classes adopted a risk-off approach in 2000, when it took more than five weeks to declare former president George W. Bush the winner in a tightly contested race with former vice president Al Gore.
“A contested election is something that markets today have not priced in significantly,” he said.
The financial advisory firm recommended investing in the forex market to protect portfolios from future volatility. The euro and Japanese yen could be used to protect against a potential non-defined US election outcome, Mr Pérez Ruiz said.
Highlighting market risks, he added that the number of US companies with $50 million or more in liabilities filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy is higher today than in the previous downturns.
“In 2002, companies linked to computers, software and telecom were filing for bankruptcy, in 2008, finance and auto companies were going bust, while in 2020, it is the service industry that is suffering the most," he said.
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
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The biog
Favourite film: The Notebook
Favourite book: What I know for sure by Oprah Winfrey
Favourite quote: “Social equality is the only basis of human happiness” Nelson Madela. Hometown: Emmen, The Netherlands
Favourite activities: Walking on the beach, eating at restaurants and spending time with friends
Job: Founder and Managing Director of Mawaheb from Beautiful Peopl
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Oppenheimer
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Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Key developments in maritime dispute
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
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'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
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White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SHAITTAN
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EA Sports FC 24
The specs: 2018 Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross
Price, base / as tested: Dh101,140 / Dh113,800
Engine: Turbocharged 1.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 148hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm @ 2,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed CVT
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
The biog
Favourite hobby: I love to sing but I don’t get to sing as much nowadays sadly.
Favourite book: Anything by Sidney Sheldon.
Favourite movie: The Exorcist 2. It is a big thing in our family to sit around together and watch horror movies, I love watching them.
Favourite holiday destination: The favourite place I have been to is Florence, it is a beautiful city. My dream though has always been to visit Cyprus, I really want to go there.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
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Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
