The US Congress is expected to approve a modest fiscal stimulus package, focusing on small business loans and extended unemployment benefits, when it meets for its "lame-duck session" after the November election, Pictet Wealth Management said on Wednesday.
A lame-duck session of Congress is a transitional period that occurs after the November elections, when it meets before a new presidential term begins in January.
“The upcoming income cliff will likely bring Congress together during the lame-duck session,” said Thomas Costerg, a senior US economist at the Swiss-based financial services company.
If Mr Biden wins, there will be stricter regulation, increase in corporate tax, income tax and capital gains tax ... and a weaker US dollar
“The US government has reacted forcefully to manage the budget deficit, but there is need for more aid. There will be a moderate fiscal stimulus package on the table be it under Joe Biden or Donald Trump. No fiscal stimulus will be a threat to US gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter.”
Mr Trump has raised hopes for a breakthrough in stimulus talks, saying he is willing to accept a large aid bill despite opposition from his own Republican party.
However, Mr Costerg said a second fiscal stimulus package will range between $750 billion and $1 trillion, well below the Covid-19 $2tn bill passed in March to boost the US economy. If Mr Biden wins Congress and the Senate, there will be a larger, green-focused stimulus package in the first half of next year, he added.
Mr Costerg said Mr Trumps looks set to lose the November election because of the economic shock of the pandemic and the sharp rise in unemployment. Citing earlier instances in which former US presidents Jimmy Carter and George Bush Senior lost their second terms because of shocks in the labour market, Mr Costerg said the US unemployment rate has increased from less than 4 per cent to 7.9 per cent this year.
Outlining different scenarios if either candidates win, César Pérez Ruiz, chief investment officer and head of investments at Pictet Wealth Management, said if Mr Trump wins, the US can expect more deregulation, loose fiscal policy, more tax cuts and a stronger US dollar. There will also be more confrontations with Iran on the nuclear deal as well as with China over the economy, technology and “to make them pay for the coronavirus”.
Meanwhile, if Mr Biden wins, there will be “stricter regulations, an increase in corporate tax, income tax and capital gains tax to fund the fiscal stimulus package, a weaker US dollar, multi-lateral policy style and reconsideration of the nuclear deal with Iran”, Mr Pérez Ruiz said.
He added that Mr Biden would take the US back to the Paris Agreement on climate change, while emerging markets will be a big beneficiary of a weaker US dollar.
However, both Mr Costerg and Mr Pérez Ruiz said US inflation is unlikely to pick up regardless of who wins the election. The US Federal Reserve is also likely to keep rates at zero during the entire mandate and continue with its quantitative easing strategy.
President Trump and his team believe the pandemic is temporary and things will go back to normal
Mr Pérez Ruiz warned that the biggest risk facing markets is a contested election, saying all asset classes adopted a risk-off approach in 2000, when it took more than five weeks to declare former president George W. Bush the winner in a tightly contested race with former vice president Al Gore.
“A contested election is something that markets today have not priced in significantly,” he said.
The financial advisory firm recommended investing in the forex market to protect portfolios from future volatility. The euro and Japanese yen could be used to protect against a potential non-defined US election outcome, Mr Pérez Ruiz said.
Highlighting market risks, he added that the number of US companies with $50 million or more in liabilities filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy is higher today than in the previous downturns.
“In 2002, companies linked to computers, software and telecom were filing for bankruptcy, in 2008, finance and auto companies were going bust, while in 2020, it is the service industry that is suffering the most," he said.
A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
MATCH INFO
Everton v Tottenham, Sunday, 8.30pm (UAE)
Match is live on BeIN Sports
THE SCORES
Ireland 125 all out
(20 overs; Stirling 72, Mustafa 4-18)
UAE 125 for 5
(17 overs, Mustafa 39, D’Silva 29, Usman 29)
UAE won by five wickets
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
match info
Maratha Arabians 138-2
C Lynn 91*, A Lyth 20, B Laughlin 1-15
Team Abu Dhabi 114-3
L Wright 40*, L Malinga 0-13, M McClenaghan 1-17
Maratha Arabians won by 24 runs
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
More from Aya Iskandarani
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Pakistan squad
Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
match details
Wales v Hungary
Cardiff City Stadium, kick-off 11.45pm
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
WISH
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Read more about the coronavirus
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
HOW TO WATCH
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Twitter: @thenationalnews
Instagram: @thenationalnews.com
TikTok: @thenationalnews
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
