This has been another disastrous year for the pound, and another great opportunity for dollar-earning British expatriates in the UAE to take advantage by sending money home at hugely attractive rates.
They have another opportunity right now, after Prime Minister Theresa May controversially pushed back the vote this week on her unpopular Brexit deal to as late as January 21 next year.
However, British residents living in the UAE now face a tough decision: should they send money home at today’s attractive exchange rates or wait a little longer in hope of getting an even better deal if the crisis worsens?
Dubai-based Brit Bradley Simpson, 51, who works as an insurance broker, has decided to wait longer. “We are sending UAE dirhams into an offshore account but aren't converting them into sterling yet," he says. "Instead, we are waiting for the optimal time, because we think all this has further to run, and the pound could have further to fall.”
Conservative MPs will hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Theresa May later today that will see her removed as party and government leader if she loses.
The pound plunged on the news then recovered as May pledged to fight the challenge “with everything I have got”. Markets are betting she will win, which would protect her from a leadership challenge for 12 months, increasing hopes of a softer Brexit and driving up the value of the pound. However, if she loses, sterling could plummet as the Conservatives may replace her with a more hardline leader who could push the country into a "no-deal" Brexit.
Earlier this week, Mrs May pledged to return to Brussels to secure assurances the UK will not be locked into the controversial backstop that could keep the UK in an indefinite customs union, even as European Council leader Donald Tusk warned that European leaders will not renegotiate the deal.
This will only prolong the agony for the British and their beleaguered currency, while extending the currency transfer opportunity for expats.
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Britons Calum McKie, 53, and his wife Angela, who are moving back the UK in March to enjoy semi-retirement after 15 years in the UAE, are also keeping a close eye on developments. “We are holding out to see how low the pound is going because there could be some bargain prices in the coming weeks and we want to take advantage if the pound drops lower," says Mr McKie.
It isn't hard to see why expats are watching and waiting, because the pound looks set to continue its slide and if it does, they will reap the rewards.
At time of writing, £1 bought $1.26, and Gaurav Kashyap, head of futures at Equity Global Markets in Dubai, says sterling could fly in either direction from here. "If Brexit negotiations go badly the pound will come under immense selling pressure and could move to around $1.23, or even $1.20."
At $1.26, somebody sending $100,000 to the UK would get £79,365. If it slipped to $1.20 they would get £83,333, an extra £3,968.
Mr Kashyap says that in the event there is a deal, the pound could fly to $1.33 and beyond, but this looks highly unlikely at the moment.
He says it is far more likely that the pound will continue its decline as the uncertainty stretches into 2019, although Brexit is not the only issue here.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates three or four times next year and this will strengthen the dollar. “I would suggest waiting and watching as opportunities to buy GBP at even more favourable exchange rates should prevail through the first three months of 2019," says Mr Kashyap.
However, he also acknowledges there is a risk in hanging on as the pound would rise rapidly if some kind of deal was struck.
Steve Cronin, founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com, a non-profit site helping people invest their money sensibly by themselves, warns that watching currency movements too closely can be bad for your mental health, especially in volatile times like these. "The fate of the pound hinges on Brexit and never has the outcome been so uncertain. If we crash out of the EU with no deal, sterling will tank. If we stay in the EU, it is likely to recover rapidly."
Nobody can say with any certainty which option it is going to be. “If you are converting money into GBP, then you better have a good reason, for example, you are purchasing something there or moving back within the next five years," says Mr Cronin. "If you are buying the pound purely because it seems low against the dollar, then you are speculating on currencies and should be careful.”
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Many expats who plan to retire in their home country build a retirement pot in the local currency and Mr Cronin advises them to send regular monthly sums rather than trying to time transfers. “Mentally, it’s hard enough dealing with stock market movements, let alone worrying about currency fluctuations as well.”
You can further reduce the uncertainty by using a currency transfer service to lock into a fixed exchange rate for a year or two, he adds. Now would certainly be a favourable time to do that.
Matthew Harries, an expat living in Dubai for 10 years who works in the financial services industry, sends regular sums back to the UK and is happy to accept the prevailing spot rate as he believes the ups and downs of currency fluctuations even out in the end. “There are times when rates are more favourable but instead of trying to be opportunistic your priority should be to create a regular savings habit to build your retirement pot.”
Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community of UAE investment enthusiasts, agrees that British expats should transfer money home on a regular basis whenever they have a bit of cash to spare. "No one truly knows what the currency will do next week, let alone next month or year so speculating whether the pound will drop further is not a good idea."
Whether you are sending money home to pay off debt or invest for retirement, delaying can work against you, Mr Phan warns. “The sooner you pay down debt the better, as this will reduce your interest payments. Similarly, if you delay investing your money you will miss out on compound growth. The losses from waiting for the pound to possibly slide further could be much greater than the possible currency gains if it does.”
Guy Bradshaw, head of residential sales at UK Sotheby’s International Realty, says the biggest winners at the moment are those buyers eyeing up London property from overseas. “Cancelling the vote has seen the pound take a huge tumble, sitting at its lowest point in the last 18 months.”
While some expatriates will see this as a buying opportunity, others have given up on the UK altogether.
Swedish national Edward Hartung, 30, had been exploiting sterling weakness to build funds in the UK and invest in a buy-to-let property, but now he is having a rethink. "The UK is simply too high risk at the moment, and I am playing safe by investing in Sweden instead. Being a landlord in Sweden is not as attractive but at least I don't have to worry about Brexit.”
Millions of Britons, both in the UAE and the UK, are wishing they could say the same thing.
360Vuz PROFILE
Date started: January 2017
Founder: Khaled Zaatarah
Based: Dubai and Los Angeles
Sector: Technology
Size: 21 employees
Funding: $7 million
Investors: Shorooq Partners, KBW Ventures, Vision Ventures, Hala Ventures, 500Startups, Plug and Play, Magnus Olsson, Samih Toukan, Jonathan Labin
A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
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Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
The permutations for UAE going to the 2018 World Cup finals
To qualify automatically
UAE must beat Iraq.
Australia must lose in Japan and at home to Thailand, with their losing margins and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
To finish third and go into a play-off with the other third-placed AFC side for a chance to reach the inter-confederation play-off match
UAE must beat Iraq.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Cashew%0D%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202020%0D%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Ibtissam%20Ouassif%20and%20Ammar%20Afif%0D%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%0D%3Cbr%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%2410m%0D%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Mashreq%2C%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: AMG-enhanced 3.0L inline-6 turbo with EQ Boost and electric auxiliary compressor
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 429hp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh360,200 (starting)
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
