With the United States Congress in recess, major markets were steady last week as they awaited US fiscal stimulus plans. This saw the attention switch to emerging markets, with the Turkish lira in particular in the spotlight amid recent sharp declines.
Despite the lira recording a 3.3 per cent fall since the beginning of August, a 5.4 per cent fall over the whole of July, and an 18 per cent fall since the start of the year, the Turkish central bank left interest rates unchanged at 8.25 per cent at its monthly policy meeting on August 20, defying analysts who had recommended a hike of between 150 to 300 basis points.
Although this was not a huge surprise given the central bank’s record of holding out against monetary policy tightening in the face of rising inflation, such an approach carries the risk of Turkey repeating the errors of two years ago, when currency weakness eventually forced much bigger rate hikes than would have otherwise been necessary.
Inflation may be a lot lower than it was in 2018, when it reached just above 25 per cent, but at 11.8 per cent year-on-year, today it is again on an upward trajectory without any offsetting brake coming from monetary policy, with Turkey’s real policy rates among the lowest in the emerging world.
But it is not only inflation that investors are worried about. Concerns are also mounting about depleted currency reserves, costly foreign currency interventions, a looming balance-of-payment crisis, and rising coronavirus cases that are hurting economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting a 5 per cent contraction this year.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s desire to counter the Covid-driven growth threat is entirely reasonable, but his track record of backing unorthodox economic policies does not help Turkey gain the confidence of investors, especially as these policies often deliver additional “self-inflicted” economic wounds over time.
In the past year, Erdogan has attempted to stabilise the economy in the face of the Covid-19 downturn by cutting interest rates and easing credit while also supporting the lira. This started before Covid-19 hit the world, but accelerated after it with interest rates falling from 12 per cent at the end of last year to 8.25 per cent in May.
The explosion in credit led to inflation turning higher and demand for imports, putting additional pressure on the Turkish lira, itself also inflationary. This in turn forced the central bank to intervene aggressively to support the currency, but to no avail with the institution spending $65 billion (Dh238.7bn) this year on defending the lira, according to Goldman Sachs, only to see it reach new lows.
President Erdogan's track record of backing unorthodox economic policies does not help Turkey gain the confidence of investors
Such intervention might have some credibility if it were backed up by the threat of monetary policy tightening, but the markets also know that President Erdogan opposes this, controversially seeing high interest rates as actually fuelling inflation. That the President is involved in monetary policy at all is worrying enough, and that he is a proponent of unorthodox policy views on interest rates only deepens such concerns.
This approach in 2018 meant that interest rates were raised too late, after inflation had already surged. In the end, this caused policy rates to peak at 24 per cent, much higher than otherwise would have been needed.
This time around, the central bank has again enacted unorthodox “liquidity measures” to attempt to tighten monetary policy so policy rates can remain at 8.25 per cent – a process that has been described as “backdoor” tightening by some analysts.
The central bank said it is increasing mandatory reserve ratios for lenders that meet certain requirements for credit growth, but this failed to reverse the lira’s losses. On Friday, it had to take another step towards tightening officially by raising the weekly lira-dollar swap rate to 9.75 per cent from 8.25 per cent.
Notwithstanding the discovery of a big natural gas find in the Black Sea, these announcements will have a limited impact in terms of improving sentiment, unless the government also gets to grips with the inflation threat, something the markets know Erdogan is loath to do.
The signs are increasingly ominous that Turkey is starting to go down the same road it travelled in 2018 and while there is understanding of the problems caused by the coronavirus, it is the “self-inflicted” wounds that the markets are worried about.
Tim Fox is a prominent regional economist and financial market analyst
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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The%20specs
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MATCH INFO
Manchester City 6 Huddersfield Town 1
Man City: Agüero (25', 35', 75'), Jesus (31'), Silva (48'), Kongolo (84' og)
Huddersfield: Stankovic (43')
Meghan%20podcast
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ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
If you go…
Emirates launched a new daily service to Mexico City this week, flying via Barcelona from Dh3,995.
Emirati citizens are among 67 nationalities who do not require a visa to Mexico. Entry is granted on arrival for stays of up to 180 days.
The%20specs
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Mubalada World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The distance learning plan
Spring break will be from March 8 - 19
Public school pupils will undergo distance learning from March 22 - April 2. School hours will be 8.30am to 1.30pm
Staff will be trained in distance learning programmes from March 15 - 19
Teaching hours will be 8am to 2pm during distance learning
Pupils will return to school for normal lessons from April 5
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 6 (McTominay 2', 3'; Fernandes 20', 70' pen; Lindelof 37'; James 65')
Leeds United 2 (Cooper 41'; Dallas 73')
Man of the match: Scott McTominay (Manchester United)
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
