Pump Jacks extract crude oil from oil wells in Texas, United States. Historically, the correlation between stocks and oil has been a relatively weak one. Photo: Bloomberg
Pump Jacks extract crude oil from oil wells in Texas, United States. Historically, the correlation between stocks and oil has been a relatively weak one. Photo: Bloomberg

The relationship between oil prices and equities is growing closer



December was a rout month for global oil prices, which were dragged down by stock market losses as investors shed equities on recession fears.

The damage extends from earlier in the fourth quarter of 2018 when energy prices plunged 15.4 per cent in November, erasing gains made in the third quarter, according to the World Bank. WTI Crude reached new yearly lows of $42.36 per barrel as of December 24, and Brent Crude was down at around $50 per barrel. Provoking the sell-offs is a clear fundamental imbalance: global supplies of oil appear to outstrip global demand.

So far, January still offers a softer market for oil, with the exception the trade truce between China and the US has heartened investors. OPEC’s December supply cuts are also a support for the commodity.

Nonetheless, bearish factors prevail. Breaking it down, demand from Asia is expected to be lower in 2019 because China’s economy slowed down on the back of a trade war with the US. In America, recession fears were stoked by several red flags, including ongoing stock market losses on fears of a global slowdown; uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and inverted bond yields.

In response to falling Oil prices, Opec promptly reined in production by 1.2 million barrels per day, intervening relatively quickly to stem the commodity’s losses. Nonetheless, Opec’s action was quickly priced in by the market and any support for Brent Crude was offset by the US Shale industry - which is still pumping at record levels.

All these developments have led the EIA to forecast average US production levels of 12.9 million bpd in 2019, meaning Opec just can’t get a break. The World Bank expects US oil production to remain robust in 2019, counterbalancing production losses expected from Opec members Venezuela and Iran. It appears that - as manufacturing slows down in China and doubts rise over the US and EU’s economic performance – the relationship between the oil price and stock exchange benchmarks is drawing closer.

__________

Read more:

What’s the best speculative asset for 2019: silver or Bitcoin?

Which currencies will be the winners of 2019?

Eight investment trends to look out for in 2019

Markets must brace for more volatility in 2019 across the globe

Investors must adjust their stance in 2019 as interest rates rise

___________

Historically, the correlation between stocks and oil has been a relatively weak one – except when investors perceive there is softening global aggregate demand based on gross domestic product weaknesses in the larger mature and emerging markets.

It’s not just about perceptions; investors are taking concrete actions to limit their exposures to volatility. Not least on the list of fallouts, Chinese oil traders refuse to buy US crude. In the first seven months of 2018, China imported more US crude than Canada, but the activity tailed off rapidly during the rounds of trade tariffs between the economic behemoths.

More recently, the trade truce between Xi and Trump encouraged Chinese oil trader Unipec to consider restarting its US imports, at least for March delivery while the 90-day truce holds, proving that investor confidence could be restored if the political actors cooperate.

Economic productivity and corporate profits go hand-in-hand. It’s highly likely that as GDP slows and impacts profits, investor confidence towards purchasing raw materials like oil will track the slowdown.

Trade wars between the world’s two largest economies – the US and China – damaged corporate profits, prompting gloomier stock growth forecasts for 2019, feeding into GDP weakness and global demand expectations for oil. The knock-on effects may continue if corporations continue suffering profit losses due to trade tensions and uncertainty over the stability of import-export tax regimes. The bright spot is a softening of tensions between China and the US and the prospect of a trade deal in March 2019, in which case, things could improve for both oil and stocks.

Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners

Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta​​​​​​​
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)

Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

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Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history

4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon

- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.

50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater

1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.  

1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.

1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.

-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.

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Specs

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Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

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The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

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The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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7pm: Flood Zone
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8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

Company%20Profile
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The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

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Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

THREE
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The team

Videographer: Jear Velasquez 

Photography: Romeo Perez 

Fashion director: Sarah Maisey 

Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory 

Models: Meti and Clinton at MMG 

Video assistant: Zanong Maget 

Social media: Fatima Al Mahmoud  

Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Overall head-to-head

Federer 6-1 Cilic

Head-to-head at Wimbledon

Federer 1-0 Cilic

Grand Slams titles

Federer 18-1 Cilic

Best Wimbledon performance

Federer: Winner (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012)
Cilic: Final (2017*)

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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”

The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet

Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465

Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder

Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm

Transmission: Nine-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km

How green is the expo nursery?

Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery

An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo

Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery

Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape

The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides

All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality

Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country

Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow

Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site

Green waste is recycled as compost

Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs

Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers

About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer

Main themes of expo is  ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.

Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months

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