The next front in China’s crackdown on debt is the one closest to home.
On the back of a boom in property prices, household borrowing has been climbing for 10 years straight, at a pace that rivals any such run-up in major economies. At $6.7 trillion, and a record 50 per cent of gross domestic product, private debt is now approaching developed-world levels and crimping consumer spending power.
Take Huang Panpan, a 33-year-old public-relations executive from Beijing. Last year, he took the plunge on a 2.9-million-yuan ($460,000) mortgage on a 385-square-foot home and now faces monthly loan payments of about half of his take-home salary.
Since then, he’s been in austerity mode: cutting travel, selling stocks, putting off a car purchase as well as a plan to start his own business. "I was someone who never paid much attention to the price tags when buying things or booking trips," Mr Huang said. "I feel more pressured financially with all that debt."
Until now, the purge driven by President Xi Jinping that’s focused on excesses in the shadow-banking sector and the credit-fuelled acquisitions of corporate giants has had minimal impact on unerringly stable economic expansion. The challenge for officials now is to tame rapid domestic credit growth at a time when trade tensions are already causing worries for the economic outlook.
Much of households’ surging debt level is linked to the housing bubble, which has seen new home prices in Beijing and Shanghai jump more than 25 per cent over the last two years. Mortgages stood at 22.9 trillion yuan at the end of 2017, making up more than half of all household loans held by lenders, People’s Bank of China data show.
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The second-largest component of the debt pile is so-called operating loans, which accounted for 22 per cent of the entire hoard and are used to finance small businesses and sole traders, according to a calculation based on official data by Fitch Ratings analysts Jack Yuan and Andrew Fennell.
Consumption lending, such as credit card and auto loans, takes roughly 19 per cent of the total household debt, they wrote in a note in March. Other forms of household credit provided outside the banking system include margin lending, peer-to-peer loans and micro-lending, which have also been rising rapidly, they said.
Growing mortgage repayments could therefore reduce households’ incentives to buy other goods, pressuring the nation’s consumption growth, according to George Wu, chief economist at Huarong Securities. That’s a headwind for an increasingly important part of the growth outlook.
"This could undermine the authorities’ efforts to re-balance the economy towards consumption," Mr Yuan and Mr Fennell wrote. The nation’s household debt-to-disposable income ratio could near 100 per cent by 2020, versus the current 82 per cent and closing the gap with the US’s 105 per cent and Japan’s 99 per cent, they said. "Household balance sheets now appear more stretched than those of most emerging markets."
To be sure, the traditionally high average rate of household saving - which far outstrips most developed markets - ought to provide a buffer against debt distress. But habits change, and younger consumers may be more likely to use surplus income to service debt than put aside.
That’s especially risky in China, as social welfare and medical care aren’t as sound as those in developed nations, where residents may take on more debt more because their governments offer better social benefits, Jiang Chao, an analyst at Haitong Securities said earlier this year. The rise in the household leverage is "very irrational," he said.
"Policy makers can’t let household leverage rise this fast, as this doesn’t fit the goal of controlling overall debt growth and offsets the efforts of the deleveraging campaign," said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "That’s why we think the central bank will boost broad interest rates - it needs to contain financial risks" being created by surging individual and corporate leverage.
The economy has proven unexpectedly resilient in face of Xi’s war against debt, with GDP expanding 6.8 per cent in the first quarter. That said, top government officials led by Xi himself sounded an unexpected warning note this week, signaling the difficulty of hitting growth targets if trade tensions escalate.
For MK Tang, Hong Kong-based senior China economist at Goldman Sachs Group, getting the balance right in approaching the issue will be tricky. The government neither wants the debt pile to destabilise the financial system, nor wants tighter rules to create too big a shock to the markets or hurt the economy, he said.
Also, at least until now, the accumulation of household debt helped boost growth through its support of the housing market, according to Haitong’s Jiang. And some consumers may have increased purchases of consumer products thanks to their mortgage debt, as they don’t need to save all their income to buy a house with cash, Mr Tang says. All these complicate decision-making on the debt crackdown.
So far, authorities have done little to directly address consumer indebtedness, aside from warnings from officials like former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan. In one of the few actions to directly address the issue, the banking regulator said late last year that it halted issuing licenses to micro-lenders that offer unsecured loans over the internet.
The situation leaves borrowers exposed to a broader increase in interest rates if faster inflation materializes. That will only make Beijing resident Mr Huang’s life harder.
"I need to reduce consumption more, if an interest-rate hike leads to a significant increase in the mortgage that I have to repay," said Mr Huang. "Goodbye to membership cards at restaurants and my investments in small businesses. I won’t buy things that aren’t absolutely necessary."
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Switching%20sides
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
FIGHT%20CARD
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Company%20Profile
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Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWafeq%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%202019%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadim%20Alameddine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Esoftware%20as%20a%20service%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%243%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERaed%20Ventures%20and%20Wamda%2C%20among%20others%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
J%20Street%20Polling%20Results
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THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Racecard
%3Cp%3E%0D5pm%3A%20Al%20Maha%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Al%20Anoud%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Arabian%20Triple%20Crown%20Round%202%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh%20300%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Liwa%20Oasis%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(PA)%20Dh300%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Dames%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh125,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh170,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 (D)1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Indika
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2011%20Bit%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Odd%20Meter%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%205%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
The%20specs
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
