I have been looking after investment portfolios in Dubai for the past 13 years, and in that period, have nursed clients through two of the world's most damaging financial crises.
Firstly, there was the dotcom crash in 2000, when the paper value of newly formed IT companies with little or no underlying substance, rose dramatically because of investor greed and unrealistic expectations. This was followed by an equally dramatic collapse over the following three years.
The second credit crisis was in 2007 and 2008, when US banks brought the financial sector to its knees by lending money to borrowers who had little or no chance of paying it back.
These were the so-called sub-prime mortgages that were converted into complicated derivatives and sold around the world to other bankers who failed to recognise their inherent risk.
The effect of these two events on equity markets was devastating, with declines of about 40 per cent in the first case and 30 per cent in the other.
Such was the negative effect on world equity markets that most of them have still not returned to the dizzy heights achieved in March 2000. What this means to the lump investor is that money invested in equity markets 11 years ago is almost certainly still sitting on a loss.
There have, in fact, been many opportunities to make money in equity markets over the past 11 years, primarily by buying stocks when markets bottomed out in March 2003 (after the dotcom crisis) and in February 2009, when they bottomed out again after the credit crisis.
If you had been investing on a monthly basis over the past 11 years, some of your contributions would have gained from these opportunities to buy at low prices. This is fine for the regular saver, but what about the poor rich man who has a large sum of money to invest? How should he cope?
One strategy is to avoid investing cash in one lump sum, but, instead, to invest it over a period of one or two years. If the markets rise, he will gain from the first tranche. If they fall, he will lose (in the short term) on the first tranche, but will gain on the second. This strategy, in statistical terms, will not produce the highest expected gain over a defined period, but it will help to reduce volatility in that period.
This strategy - called dollar-cost averaging - is a bit dull for the average lump-sum investor. If you want a more thrilling and sophisticated solution, then you need to look at hedge funds or other alternatives where performance is "independent of" (or uncorrelated with) that of equities. So, if you are losing money on your equity portfolio, there is a good chance that you could be making it on your hedge funds.
Bonds and property perform moderately independent of equities, but neither of them come close to the low correlation that can be achieved with hedge funds.
One of the most successful hedge strategies over the past 11 years (and before that) has been that of "managed futures". In this strategy, the fund manager bets on an asset value going up or down in the short term. He can make money in rising or falling markets as long as he guesses the trend correctly.
Man Investments has developed this approach very impressively with its AHL Diversified Programme, in which a computer continuously monitors price movements in nearly 200 different markets, looking for upward or downward trends that it can exploit.
The decision to buy or sell, or to go long or short, is made by the computer with no human input. The algorithm uses historical data only to predict future movement and makes no attempt to analyse fundamentals arising from economic or political change.
Because of this, and the fact that its average deal lasts for only 18 days, it is not surprising that the strategy produces performance that is uncorrelated with that of equity markets that are sensitive to such external factors.
The AHL Programme has returned an average of 15.1 per cent a year since February 1997, with only one negative year in that period. Its performance is slightly more volatile than that of equities but, on average, has been significantly higher.
In the same period, world stocks returned an average of 2.6 per cent a year and bonds 6 per cent per annum. But absolute performance is not the whole story. Because AHL offers performance that is "uncorrelated" with that of equities, adding it to a conventional portfolio will reduce overall volatility. In the three years after the dotcom crisis, for example, when equity markets fell by 40 per cent, AHL continued to rise at about 16 per cent a year.
Man Investments is currently offering a capital guaranteed product that combines its AHL Programme with a range of hedge funds available from GLG Partners. The GLG funds are managed by human beings, not by a computer algorithm, who do respond to world economic and political influences.
Bill Davey is a financial adviser at Mondial-Dubai. If you have any questions about his column or other financial matters, e-mail him at pf@thenational.ae
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwin-turbo%2C%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E503%20bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E513Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh646%2C800%20(%24176%2C095)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
RESULTS
6.30pm: Longines Conquest Classic Dh150,000 Maiden 1,200m.
Winner: Halima Hatun, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer).
7.05pm: Longines Gents La Grande Classique Dh155,000 Handicap 1,200m.
Winner: Moosir, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Longines Equestrian Collection Dh150,000 Maiden 1,600m.
Winner: Mazeed, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm: Longines Gents Master Collection Dh175,000 Handicap.
Winner: Thegreatcollection, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Longines Ladies Master Collection Dh225,000 Conditions 1,600m.
Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Longines Ladies La Grande Classique Dh155,000 Handicap 1,600m.
Winner: Secret Trade, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
10pm: Longines Moon Phase Master Collection Dh170,000 Handicap 2,000m.
Winner:
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7%22%20Super%20Retina%20XDR%20OLED%2C%202796%20x%201290%2C%20460ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%202000%20nits%20max%2C%20HDR%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%2C%20always-on%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A17%20Pro%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%206-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iOS%2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Triple%3A%2048MP%20main%20(f%2F1.78)%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%205x%20telephoto%20(f%2F2.8)%3B%205x%20optical%20zoom%20in%2C%202x%20optical%20zoom%20out%3B%2010x%20optical%20zoom%20range%2C%20digital%20zoom%20up%20to%2025x%3B%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20HD%20%40%2030fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2060fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20TrueDepth%20(f%2F1.9)%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3B%20Animoji%2C%20Memoji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2030fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204441mAh%2C%20up%20to%2029h%20video%2C%2025h%20streaming%20video%2C%2095h%20audio%3B%20fast%20charge%20to%2050%25%20in%2030min%20(with%20at%20least%2020W%20adaptor)%3B%20MagSafe%2C%20Qi%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%2C%20second-generation%20Ultra%20Wideband%20chip%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Face%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP68%2C%20water-resistant%20up%20to%206m%20up%20to%2030min%3B%20dust%2Fsplash-resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20eSIM%20%2F%20eSIM%20%2B%20eSIM%20(US%20models%20use%20eSIMs%20only)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%20titanium%2C%20blue%20titanium%2C%20natural%20titanium%2C%20white%20titanium%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EiPhone%2015%20Pro%20Max%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20woven%20cable%2C%20one%20Apple%20sticker%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh5%2C099%20%2F%20Dh5%2C949%20%2F%20Dh6%2C799%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
Afcon 2019
SEMI-FINALS
Senegal v Tunisia, 8pm
Algeria v Nigeria, 11pm
Matches are live on BeIN Sports
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5