The latest earnings season showed retailers of all stripes, not just e-commerce companies, have been winners in the pandemic.
Amazon is reaping a windfall, as are emerging e-commerce stars such as Wayfair and Etsy. But physical giants such as US retailers Home Depot and Target and athleisure apparel company Lululemon Athletica have also reported stellar earnings.
This is partly because fiscal relief passed by US Congress has supported household incomes despite the rise in unemployment. But it’s also because, as Target's chief executive noted, consumer spending that would have gone to in-person activities such as travel or dining has gone into buying physical products instead.
The risk to these companies – and to investors who have sought refuge from the pandemic in their shares – is what happens once there's a vaccine and consumer spending shifts back to in-person activities. That normalisation process will be good news for the economy overall but bad news for retailers that have benefited from this year's disruption.
So many retailers have thrived in the pandemic that we can think of them holistically in a behavioral sense, rather than just dividing them into traditional themes such as e-commerce or home improvement. Recreation vehicle sales are up as would-be travellers see them as safer than planes and hotels. Swimming pool makers have benefitted as people try to relax at home. Yoga clothes and athleisure are in, while business suits are out, as work-from-home employees prioritise comfort over office attire.
For the most part, if you sell goods that still have utility while in-person gatherings are curtailed, if consumers believe it's safe to shop with you, and if you've had inventory to sell, then you're doing well.
This won’t last forever. There may be some permanent shifts here; in the case of e-commerce, perhaps customers who previously wouldn't have shopped online in a certain category may continue to shop that way going forward. But a lot of this shopping will prove temporary once life gets back to normal.
This could be a rude awakening for investors in retail stocks that have provided a measure of security in 2020.
Consumers have fixed budgets, and a dollar spent on travel or dining is a dollar that can't be spent buying stuff online. And once you buy one RV or swimming pool, you usually don't need another one.
Another factor beyond wallet share is time share. When it comes to social media or streaming services, it’s understood that a minute spent on Facebook is a minute not spent watching television or Netflix. There are only so many minutes in the day, and people have to sleep, work, eat and live their lives. The same applies to shopping.
The pandemic has changed how we use our time. We can’t spend weekends with friends or family, or at restaurants or weddings, as much as usual. So it’s somewhat more appealing to go to a big-box store to get out of the house, or to spend more time shopping online, if only as a diversion. A Saturday morning not spent at brunch is a Saturday morning that can be spent shopping for outdoor furniture. That process will reverse after a vaccine.
There’s a limit to how much things can move in the opposite direction; most people won't eat twice as many steak dinners in 2021 to make up for lost time in 2020. But it's possible that, once it's safe to do so, people will spend much more time on in-person activities than usual for a while.
People may revel in doing things they previously took for granted. With two young kids, I'm already dreading the possibility of visiting a Disney theme park next year, knowing how many other families who didn't get their Disney pilgrimage this year will be fighting for the same reservations I will. Difficulties finding in-stock items or reserving a home contractor right now might be replaced by struggles to book restaurants and hotels a year from now.
This could be a rude awakening for investors in retail stocks that have provided a measure of security in 2020. It's possible, perhaps even likely, that the two-year performance of these companies in 2020 and 2021 will exceed what anyone could have reasonably expected at the end of 2019.
But from the standpoint of trends internalised by investors this year, performance next year could disappoint – particularly relative to companies involved in activities that have been suppressed in 2020 but could come back strong in 2021.
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
MATCH INFO
Everton 0
Manchester City 2 (Laporte 45 2', Jesus 90 7')
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Reputation
Taylor Swift
(Big Machine Records)
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQureos%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E33%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESoftware%20and%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%243%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
The biog
Favourite book: Men are from Mars Women are from Venus
Favourite travel destination: Ooty, a hill station in South India
Hobbies: Cooking. Biryani, pepper crab are her signature dishes
Favourite place in UAE: Marjan Island
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
((Disclaimer))
The Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG (“Bank”) assumes no liability or guarantee for the accuracy, balance, or completeness of the information in this publication. The content may change at any time due to given circumstances, and the Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG is under no obligation to update information once it has been published. This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, a recommendation or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch), Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG, or any of its group affiliates to make any investments or obtain services. This publication has not been reviewed, disapproved or approved by the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) Central Bank, Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) or any other relevant licensing authorities in the UAE. It may not be relied upon by or distributed to retail clients. Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch) is regulated by the DFSA and this advertorial is intended for Professional Clients (as defined by the DFSA) who have sufficient financial experience and understanding of financial markets, products or transactions and any associated risks.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results:
5pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1.400m | Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Saab, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Majd Al Gharbia, Saif Al Balushi, Ridha ben Attia
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (PA) Listed Dh 180,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Money To Burn, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh 70,000 2,200m | Winner: AF Kafu, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 2,400m | Winner: Brass Ring, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
MATCH RESULT
Al Jazira 3 Persepolis 2
Jazira: Mabkhout (52'), Romarinho (77'), Al Hammadi (90' 6)
Persepolis: Alipour (42'), Mensha (84')
Stage 2 results
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 04:18:18
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:02
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:04
4 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates
5 Rick Zabel (GER) Israel Start-Up Nation
General Classification
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 07:47:19
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:12
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:16
4 Nikolai Cherkasov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:17
5 Alexey Lutsensko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 00:00:19
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Company Profile
Company name: Big Farm Brothers
Started: September 2020
Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur
Based: Dubai Investment Park 1
Industry: food and agriculture
Initial investment: $205,000
Current staff: eight to 10
Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets
