The rhetoric repeated frequently and loudly in the marketplace lately is that stocks "just want to go higher". This highlights the leading role played by market technicals, or what I think of as determining the path of least resistance for risk appetites.
Fuelled most recently by the robust involvement of retail investors, these technicals first turbocharged a rally triggered both by corporate and economic fundamentals that were better than expected and consistently supportive monetary policies. Then they were instrumental in brushing off one new troubling question after another about these same fundamentals. Finally, they helped tip a stalemate between fundamentals and policies in favour of already-elevated stock valuations. But this is becoming a heavier burden, especially as more of a spotlight is placed on their dynamics.
The three main US stock indexes have rallied 39 per cent to 45 per cent from their lows on March 23. In the process, the S&P 500 is almost back to flat for the year (down 4 per cent), outperforming the all-world index in the process. The Nasdaq has done a lot better, returning 11 per cent year-to-date, while the Dow is down more than 9 per cent.
There have been several phases to the impressive stock market rebound from the March low.
Slightly less negative health indicators – that is, a rate of worsening in Covid-19 illness that started to defy worst-case scenarios – and, initially more important, huge fiscal and monetary policy interventions, helped sharply reverse the typical liquidity-exaggerated slump that tends to take place when asset prices hit a sudden big air pocket. The upward move in prices was strengthened by additional US Federal Reserve support that, in a surprising move, went as far as the once-unthinkable purchasing of junk bonds.
The resulting spike attracted the attention and, more important, greater involvement of retail investors. They emphasised individual stocks that had notably lagged in the initial phases of the rally, a decision that was quickly validated by the boost given to "reopening" stocks powered by initial indications that the relaxation of the economic lockdowns in China and then Europe and the US were proceeding in a healthy manner.
Having endured economically devastating lockdowns to save lives, people were seeing it was possible to improve economic livelihoods while continuing to save lives. In this new "living with Covid" phase, stores were reopening and households were re-engaging in the economy while, simultaneously, rates of infection, hospitalisation and death were all continuing to improve.
Supported by a deep faith in the constant backing of central bank liquidity, the self-reinforcing upward price momentum that followed allowed stocks to overcome the next phase of less encouraging news. This included indications that the initial sharp recovery in economic activity was moderating, as was the improvement in health metrics.
Meanwhile, a rise in corporate bankruptcies was making the ugly reality of permanent capital impairment more apparent for a subset of investors. In all this, the impact of retail investor flows also proved strong enough to offset what has become greater scepticism on the part of institutional and hedge fund investors.
The underlying and evolving tug-of-war between more muted fundamentals and extremely supportive policies was in evidence last week. On the one side, the more uncertain outlook for corporate and economic fundamentals was illustrated by Apple's decision to re-close stores in two states hit by rising Covid-19 hospitalisations and record daily infection numbers. On the other side, all four systemically important central banks – namely, the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan – continued to make statements and take actions that show a seemingly infinite willingness and ability to pump exceptional liquidity into the system despite growing concerns about excessive risk-taking by both debtors and investors, moral hazard, excessive decoupling of Wall Street from Main Street and other unintended adverse consequences.
In the first part of last week, retail-led technicals were sufficient to resolve this tug-of-war in favour of even higher stock prices. Afterwards, markets essentially stagnated, with rising intraday volatility posing more urgent questions as to whether the headwinds were starting to become more problematic.
Such headwinds go beyond indications that China and the US, first- and second-phase Covid countries, are slipping in their ability to decisively contain the initial virus shock – China has decided to re-close schools and impose targeted lockdowns in Beijing, and some US states are reporting elevated infection and hospitalisation numbers. They also involve US economic data, such as last Thursday's new and continuing jobless claims, which have switched from constituting upside surprises for markets to downside ones.
With a lot more interest in how retail investors are allocating their money, including through increasingly analysed Robinhood data, there is greater awareness not just of what has gone well, including articles about how retail has outperformed both institutional and hedge fund investing, but also what has gone badly, such as the experience with Hertz, the US car-rental company.
The influence of retail investors' money is now experiencing what is familiar to long-distance runners who start with a sprint. The initial gains seem relatively easy and enormously satisfying, serving to build self-confidence. But as the realities of the longer distance gradually impose themselves, there is need for a second bout of energy to maintain the outperformance.
The second bout of energy for retail investors can either come internally, from more money being redirected to stocks, or externally, from an improvement in fundamentals while policies remain supportive, or both. Absent that, this notable technical momentum will fade back into the pack, requiring ever more distortional policy support over time until fundamentals improve in a durable and inclusive fashion.
Mohamed El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as chief executive and co-chief information officer.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Zayed Sustainability Prize
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
MATCH INFO
Day 2 at Mount Maunganui
England 353
Stokes 91, Denly 74, Southee 4-88
New Zealand 144-4
Williamson 51, S Curran 2-28
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
if you go
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Britain's travel restrictions
- A negative test 2 days before flying
- Complete passenger locator form
- Book a post-arrival PCR test
- Double-vaccinated must self-isolate
- 11 countries on red list quarantine
Results
5pm: Warsan Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Dhaw Al Reef, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Al Quadra Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mrouwah Al Gharbia, Sando Paiva, Abubakar Daud
6pm: Hatta Lake – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Yatroq, George Buckell, Ernst Oertel
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adries de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Zakher Lake – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Alfareeq, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Scotland 59 (Tries: Hastings (2), G Horne (3), Turner, Seymour, Barclay, Kinghorn, McInally; Cons: Hastings 8)
Russia 0
RACE CARD
6.30pm Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $36,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.40pm Meydan Trophy – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (T) 1,900m
8.15pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 - Group 2 (TB) $293,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) $65,000 (T) 1,000m
Result
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,950m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m; Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Adam McLean, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,950m; Winner: Conclusion, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh100,000 1,400m; Winner: Pilgrim’s Treasure, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m; Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,000m; Winner: Midlander, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
'The%20Alchemist's%20Euphoria'
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Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
match info
Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')
Liverpool 0
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES
Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)
Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)
Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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MATCH INFO
Norwich City 0 Southampton 3 (Ings 49', Armstrong 54', Redmond 79')
