One of the most remarkable recent financial developments, a potential harbinger for global markets this year, has been scarcely remarked upon. It's the sudden, sharp recovery in the dollar.
The surge, which began in early December, has taken the dollar - and the dirham, whose value is pegged to it - up about 5 per cent, leaving it with a what's-all-the-fuss-about loss of 3 per cent for 2009 against the euro, its main rival for the role of the world's reserve currency. Reports of the dollar's death - uttered continually as the currency was falling - have been greatly exaggerated.
The latest recovery appears more forceful than others made during the last year, and it may prove less fleeting. If a rising trend becomes firmly established, it could have significant consequences, especially in the Middle East, because of the dollar's relationships with several key assets that are important to investors there.
That said, any portfolio tinkering at this point is premature. The rebound may turn out to be a colossal fake-out that evaporates as swiftly as it materialised. Even if the rally gets legs, any impact would depend on the underlying causes and would have to be considered in the context of other factors driving markets and economies.
Relationships between the dollar and various investments are simple - in simple times. A rising dollar tends to reduce the prices of hard assets denominated in the currency.
The two most notable examples are oil and gold. Sure enough, when the dollar was making modest recoveries in the first half of 2009, those commodities showed weakness.
This time around, gold spent December correcting a large portion of its advance of the previous few months, although it ended the year with a substantial gain. Oil did better, ending the month flat and near its highest level in more than a year.
The resilience suggests that commodities will withstand the headwind from a robust dollar. That ought to be good news for the economies and stock markets of oil exporting countries in the Middle East as long as the currency does not move up at so fast a pace that it curbs energy demand in Europe and Asia.
How much the dollar rises may be less important than why. A flare-up of the risk aversion that was endemic a year ago and lured investors into what they saw as the comparative safety of the US economy would be the most ominous source of strength for the dollar.
A shunning of risk likely would reflect doubt about the staying power of the global recovery and might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. A new spirit of caution would not bode well for emerging stock markets, including those in the Middle East, and a second dip into recession would almost certainly knock the starch out of the rally in oil.
The dollar might also move higher due to a surge in inflation expectations and interest rates on Treasury bonds. That outcome would amount to the bill coming due for the enormous spending undertaken by the Bush and Obama administrations to try to keep the US economy afloat.
If that scenario were to play out, the higher returns on Treasuries would attract global investors and prop up the dollar.
The uncomfortable inflation backdrop would put a floor under commodities and support stock markets in oil-reliant economies.
Such a backdrop might have the opposite effect on the stock market in Dubai, an economy with a massive debt overhang and little oil or other commodities to sell. The cost of servicing the emirate's debt probably would be higher, and the rising dollar would make Dubai property more expensive for foreign buyers, although higher inflation expectations might give a lift to real estate markets there and elsewhere.
What are the chances that events will unfold this way, that the dollar's strength will persist? The consensus among economists is that the dollar's gains will be erased. Then again, they were nearly unanimous in expecting further weakness before the recent surge.
As for rising Treasury rates and inflation expectations, the massive and expanding US deficit is certainly well known and shouldn't take anyone by surprise. What investors may be underestimating is the impact on rates from a withdrawal of Federal Reserve aid to credit markets, which seems bound to happen sooner rather than later. The persistent strength in commodities is a sign of lurking inflation concerns that may become more conspicuous after credit markets are functioning on their own.
As 2010 gets under way and you make your usual resolutions about losing weight or giving up smoking, consider adding one to the list about watching what the dollar does and why. It could help you enjoy a more prosperous new year, or at least avoid a costly one.
Conrad de Aenlle writes from Los Angeles about investment and personal finance issues. His blog on contrarian investing for MoneyWatch.com, "Against the Grain," can be found at http://bit.ly/NjaBa
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
About Seez
Company name/date started: Seez, set up in September 2015 and the app was released in August 2017
Founder/CEO name(s): Tarek Kabrit, co-founder and chief executive, and Andrew Kabrit, co-founder and chief operating officer
Based in: Dubai, with operations also in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon
Sector: Search engine for car buying, selling and leasing
Size: (employees/revenue): 11; undisclosed
Stage of funding: $1.8 million in seed funding; followed by another $1.5m bridge round - in the process of closing Series A
Investors: Wamda Capital, B&Y and Phoenician Funds
UAE-based players
Goodlands Riders: Jamshaid Butt, Ali Abid, JD Mahesh, Vibhor Shahi, Faizan Asif, Nadeem Rahim
Rose Hill Warriors: Faraz Sheikh, Ashok Kumar, Thabreez Ali, Janaka Chathuranga, Muzammil Afridi, Ameer Hamza
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Company%20profile
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How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Last-16
France 4
Griezmann (13' pen), Pavard (57'), Mbappe (64', 68')
Argentina 3
Di Maria (41'), Mercado (48'), Aguero (90 3')
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Results
STAGE
1 . Filippo Ganna (Ineos) - 0:13:56
2. Stefan Bissegger (Education-Nippo) - 0:00:14
3. Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:21
4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:24
5. Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) - 0:00:30
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 4:00:05
2. Joao Almeida (QuickStep) - 0:00:05
3. Mattia Cattaneo (QuickStep) - 0:00:18
4. Chris Harper (Jumbo-Visma) - 0:00:33
5. Adam Yates (Ineos) - 0:00:39
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The biog
Born November 11, 1948
Education: BA, English Language and Literature, Cairo University
Family: Four brothers, seven sisters, two daughters, 42 and 39, two sons, 43 and 35, and 15 grandchildren
Hobbies: Reading and traveling
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
More on animal trafficking
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2 (Heaton (og) 42', Lindelof 64')
Aston Villa 2 (Grealish 11', Mings 66')
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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