Crude may rebound above US$100 per barrel, according to analysts and industry officials. But it is a question of timing.
Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of the French energy group Total, said low levels of investment in oil exploration and development meant oil prices could rise "well above" the $100 mark as resurgent demand outstripped supply.
"The problem is when. The problem is to anticipate this, not to send a message to scare people but to send a message [that] it's important to invest now," he said in an interview with the BBC.
"We might be faced with insufficient oil to cover demand and I think it's our role to say it in advance, to force people in charge of our countries to think about this concern we have and we need to share and prepare because in two, three years it will be too late."
Mr de Margerie warned of an oil shortage by 2015 if no immediate action was taken to stimulate investment in new supplies.
Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank, last week raised its 2012 price forecast for crude to $105 from $95 because of tightening spare production capacity.
"Assuming demand returns to growth, we see global spare capacity back to 2007, to 2008 levels by 2012 and getting even tighter thereafter," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report.
"We believe prices will need to move higher to ration demand as the world struggles to find enough supply. Once demand growth is re-established we expect the market's attention to shift back to the long-term structural supply issues facing the oil market."
The report forecasts the worldwide glut of idled oil output capacity, estimated at 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd), shrinking to 3.3 million bpd within three years, or less than 4 per cent of global oil demand.
Adding to the bank's supply concerns, oil exporters' plans to add more production capacity in 2013 and beyond look vulnerable.
Among potential problems, major political uncertainties are threatening to cause serious delays to plans by Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Brazil to add millions of barrels per day of new oil production.
"The post-2013 surge in capacity is very much in the 'if everything goes exactly according to plan' category," the Morgan Stanley report said.
"The bulk of these projects are expensive (Canadian oil sands), technically extraordinarily challenging (Brazil) or face geopolitical challenges (Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait).
"If a significant portion of these supplies fails to materialise, global spare production capacity would be drastically reduced," it added.
However, crude was unlikely to move much above the current level of about $70 per barrel until it was clear the world economy was recovering from its sharpest downturn in decades, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said in its latest monthly report on Monday.
The London-based energy consultancy said it expected little sustained upward pressure on oil prices this year. "Even next year, prices are unlikely to rise much unless clear signals emerge that the world is pulling out of recession in a sustainable fashion," it added.
Christof Ruhl, the chief economist of the largest British oil producer, BP, forecast two years of stable oil prices due to ample near-term spare capacity which would suppress price spikes.
With slow recovery in global oil demand and countries such as Russia already increasing their exports it could take three years to burn through excess supplies, he said.
Mr Ruhl said OPEC's grip on the oil market had weakened significantly amid the supply glut, making it more likely that the group's discipline over output quotas would break down.
But Khalid al Falih, the president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco, told Bloomberg the world's biggest oil exporter would leave some fields idle next year because recovery in world demand had failed to materialise.
"I don't expect a major shift in demand unless we see an acceleration of the economic recovery, which is not yet apparent," he said.
"We have the excess capacity in case it's needed but we also have the ability to sustain ourselves with production levels similar to what we see today at prices similar to what we have seen so far."
Aramco, the Saudi state-run oil monopoly, is pumping crude at about two thirds of its capacity as a result of weak global demand and Saudi Arabia's commitment to contribute to the record output cuts OPEC pledged last year.
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Origin
Dan Brown
Doubleday
Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2017 Porsche 718 Cayman
Price, base / as tested Dh222,500 / Dh296,870
Engine 2.0L, flat four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed PDK
Power 300hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque 380hp @ 1,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.9L / 100km
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20CarbonSifr%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202022%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Onur%20Elgun%2C%20Mustafa%20Bosca%20and%20Muhammed%20Yildirim%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Climate%20tech%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%241%20million%20raised%20in%20seed%20funding%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Twin-turbocharged%204-litre%20V8%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20625%20bhp%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20630Nm%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh974%2C011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ENGLAND TEAM
England (15-1)
George Furbank; Jonny May, Manu Tuilagi, Owen Farrell (capt), Elliot Daly; George Ford, Ben Youngs; Tom Curry, Sam Underhill, Courtney Lawes; Charlie Ewels, Maro Itoje; Kyle Sinckler, Jamie George, Joe Marler
Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Ellis Genge, Will Stuart, George Kruis, Lewis Ludlam, Willi Heinz, Ollie Devoto, Jonathan Joseph
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SCE%20Studio%20Cambridge%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%2C%20PlayStation%204%20and%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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