Oil brings wealth, and burden of responsibility



"Responsibility walks hand in hand with capacity and power," wrote Josiah Gilbert Holland, the 19th-century American poet and novelist. The New Englander might have been writing presciently about the oilfields of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Of course, he was not. Nor would most contemporary Americans think to describe Arab oil policy in such terms. One person who does is Dr Walid Khadduri, an Iraqi-born oil expert who is the co-author of the UN's 2009 Arab Human Development Report.

"Arab oil policy is based on the recognition that oil is a vital and strategic commodity for the world economy, and that producer countries have a responsibility to provide it reliably, without interruptions, and at reasonable prices," he writes in the report. "This responsibility requires the investment of tens of billions of dollars annually to expand capacity in order to meet incremental demand. It also extends to substituting for any major shortage in global markets, whether caused by industrial or political developments, or natural disasters."

Dr Khadduri, a former editor-in-chief of the Middle East Economic Survey, has spent most of his career studying such issues. Arab oil producers have paid a high price for standing ready to ramp up oil output in the event of unexpected shortages, he contends. Three times in the past five years they have pumped emergency supplies to the world: during a Venezuelan oil workers' strike from 2002 to 2003; during the 2003 invasion of Iraq; and after hurricanes knocked out Gulf of Mexico oil production in 2005.

"Major Arab oil producers all chipped in to help make up for supply shortfalls at these times, pre-empting major disruptions in the world economy," Dr Khadduri says. "The speed and flexibility of producers on these occasions is due to their policy of retaining spare production capacity for emergency use. It is highly costly because it entails leaving readily available oil in the ground, to be used only in emergencies, instead of for financing social projects."

Large Arab oil producers do not maintain spare production capacity purely out of altruism. It brings geopolitical advantages, enhancing state security. Would the US, France and Britain be so eager to extend a "defence umbrella" over the Gulf if Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the UAE could not increase oil output on demand? Increasingly, Dr Khadduri notes, election campaigns in industrialised countries feature speeches about "oil security" that are "used to build the case for sustainable sources of energy, instead of Arab oil".

Developed countries also blame OPEC, particularly the Gulf states, for high oil prices. When crude was heading towards a record peak last summer, the Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd urged the Group of Eight (G8) industrialised nations to "apply the blowtorch" to OPEC to boost production. Saudi Arabia obliged a month later, in July, raising output by 500,000 barrels per day just as New York and London traders clued in to a five-month-old slide in global oil demand and triggered a price slump.

When the furore over high oil prices was loudest, OPEC analysed consuming countries' fuel taxes, and showed that oil-tax revenues in the seven leading industrialised countries had exceeded total OPEC oil revenue in the period from 2004 to 2008. In Britain, with the highest taxes, government receipts last year from sales of transportation fuels were nearly twice the cost of the crude oil used in their production.

But this did not stop Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, from saying last October: "It is absolutely scandalous that OPEC is thinking of meeting in the next few days to cut oil production so they can push up the price of oil again, and we will certainly try and prevent this." Such opprobrium is not reserved for Arab exporters. Many Canadians are stung when the American consumers of about half their country's crude output label it "dirty oil". Recent studies have shown the carbon emissions associated with oil extracted from Canada's oil sands may be only 10 to 15 per cent higher than for Texan or Saudi crude, and Canadian producers are investing heavily to eliminate the difference.

Renewed World Energies (RWE), a South Carolina biofuel developer, belongs to a legion of small US companies hoping to benefit from the American energy independence movement. "Six years ago, Richard Armstrong and Tim Tompkins, determined and passionate to thwart American dependency on foreign oil, embarked on a new venture," states a recent press release. Mr Armstrong, the firm's president, says: "We are seeing our goals come to fruition with a viable alternative that unites green and market standards, and a day when dependence on foreign oil is a distant memory."

The US President Barack Obama pushed a more pointed line in his election campaign. "For the sake of our economy, our security and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as president: in 10 years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East." It might not take that long, as the US now imports only 10 per cent of its oil supply from the region. Meanwhile, the UN warns that poor Arab nations face advancing deserts and more acute water shortages due to climate change.

Most do not produce or use much oil, yet they are still hurt when crude prices fall, as employment opportunities, remittances and economic assistance from their oil exporting neighbours dry up. tcarlisle@thenational.ae

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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