Oil markets may reach a turning point in January after nine months of plummeting demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
At least, that is what Opec and Russia forecast at their meeting on December 3. The group of oil-producing countries foresees a gradual reintroduction of two million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil next year. At no more than 500,000 bpd per month, the pace of the pivot is expected to be glacial.
The question is whether Opec is on track or thinking wishfully, given the continuing uncertainty and logistical mountain of vaccinating hundreds of millions of people around the world.
Pessimists might say that January is too early to expect a significant uptick in demand for oil. Let’s take the case at hand – the early adopters of the first vaccines.
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approved in the UK and the rollout has already begun. Problems arose after recipients with a history of allergies and asthma reported serious negative reactions to the vaccine and authorities warned this group not to have the vaccine until more is known.
The first priority is to vaccinate vulnerable groups, such as those in nursing homes and their staff. The UK expects to vaccinate up to 20 million people in vulnerable groups by the end of 2021.
At the time of writing, the US began its first shipments of Covid-19 vaccine on Sunday following the final approval from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has also arrived in Canada and several other countries continue to authorise the emergency use of the vaccine, including Bahrain and Kuwait.
However, social distancing measures, partial lockdowns, travel restrictions and other factors weighing on oil demand are still expected to prevail through at least the first quarter of next year. The global transportation fuel industry – worth $609 billion in 2020 – was heavily impacted by the economic slowdown this year and is expected to grow by just 2.3 per cent by 2027.
The upside is that the first steps have been taken on the long road to mass Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide, and this should be instrumental in boosting confidence. The restoration of confidence is a key factor to sustain oil prices after almost a year of uncertainty and unpredictable demand.
The upside is that the first steps have been taken on the long road to mass Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide, and this should be instrumental in boosting confidence
China’s continued economic recovery from the pandemic is another positive story as conditions improve. The country imported 11.08m bpd of crude in November, not far from the 11.18m bpd in the same month last year. Aramco signalled its increased confidence by hiking January deliveries to Asia by 80 cents.
The same cannot be said for the US, where petrol sales slumped to a five-year low in November and Covid-related job losses in the US oilfield and services sector rose to 91,680. However, the US began to vaccinate people on Monday..
The upside presents more to look forward to for Gulf states. Their economic recoveries were intensely pressured by the drop in global oil prices and the resulting reduction in government revenues.
In related developments, the US Energy Information Administration estimates that vaccine breakthroughs are expected to boost demand for oil by the middle of next year, meaning that the medium-term outlook is improving. In accordance with its expectations, the EIA hiked its price forecasts for WTI and Brent to $41.43 per barrel and $48.53 per barrel, respectively.
On balance, there are more short-term headwinds to face in oil markets, but the outlook is brighter, especially for the middle of 2021. January contracts may be too soon for Opec’s expected increase in production to be taken up, although contracts later in the year may see more appetite due to better sentiment.
The global economic recovery is likely to be incremental and follow the progress made by international vaccination programmes. I expect short-term conditions to stay volatile in the sense that any negative developments in vaccines could disproportionately affect sentiment. However, once reports of large-scale immunity to Covid-19 come through, there could be a massive leap forward in the global economy.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM.
SPEC%20SHEET
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M2%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206%2C%20Bluetooth%205.0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%2C%20midnight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%20or%2035W%20dual-port%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C999%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Most%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The five pillars of Islam
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
How%20champions%20are%20made
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KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Company%20profile
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
TEAMS
US Team
Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger
Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler
Kevin Kisner, Patrick Reed
Matt Kuchar, Kevin Chappell
Charley Hoffman*, Phil Mickelson*
International Team
Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day
Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen
Marc Leishman, Charl Schwartzel
Branden Grace, Si Woo Kim
Jhonattan Vegas, Adam Hadwin
Emiliano Grillo*, Anirban Lahiri*
* denotes captain's picks
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