Markets have attempted to rally over the past two weeks, buoyed by limitless quantitative easing and huge fiscal policy packages announced by governments and central banks around the world.
These rallies were already faltering at the end of last week, however, under the weight of the enormity of the economic destruction unfolding because of the measures being taken to combat the coronavirus. The International Monetary Fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva described it as "a crisis like no other" which goes to the heart of why measures taken to deal with past crises are having less effect this time around.
Of course markets would cheer if a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 was suddenly available, but at the moment this 'perfect' scenario looks some way off.
Equity markets attempted to rally as policymakers rolled out the textbook responses seen during past global crises, but on an altogether bigger scale. They also seized on periodic glimpses of optimism that showed a slowdown in the rate of new Covid-19 infections in Italy, for example, which might offer hope that global lockdowns are beginning to work.
They even saw oil prices rally on the possibility of a global output deal between major oil producers. However, even this could not sustain the broader market recoveries, as the economic cost of coronavirus became ominously clear at the end of last week with jobless rates soaring to unprecedented levels around the world.
What markets are struggling to come to terms with is that this crisis has its own unique characteristics, dynamics and timelines that no attempt to shoehorn a recovery by traditional means can probably change. Foremost is that this is a healthcare crisis first, an economic crisis second and a financial crisis third. This helps to explain why prioritising measures to deal with the financial aspect of it are having less effect than in the past.
This is not to say that policymakers are wrong to support the financial system, far from it, as preventing the financial system from collapsing is essential if governments are to have any chance of solving the bigger healthcare challenge as well as the economic one. However, market recoveries will not be sustainable until the source of the crisis is fixed, with a medical solution to coronavirus coming online, and until they can see a way forward for a sustainable economic recovery from the carnage currently being inflicted by the strategy of containment and lockdown measures.
There don't appear to be any easy remedies to these problems. Of course markets would cheer if a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 was suddenly available, but at the moment this 'perfect' scenario looks some way off. Instead investors are likely to have to make do with 'imperfect’ outcomes for some time to come.
In the absence of a vaccine, investors are hoping for signs the pandemic will run its course in the next month and that the trajectory of the Covid-19 infection and mortality rate will slow by their own volition or on account of the travel bans and lockdowns imposed. However, such hopes are not a reliable enough basis for a sustainable market recovery just yet. Furthermore, what if these polices have to be extended into May? The imposition of much tougher restrictions on travel and social activity have probably not been discounted and would keep most of the global economy shutdown for much longer than currently assumed.
Alternatively, at some point, governments will face difficult choices about the costs versus the benefits in terms of the economy and weigh the consequences of an early return to work against the risk of a further wave of infections and deaths.
Populations may even force such outcomes by their behaviours depending on how they challenge the restrictions. This could produce an upturn in the economy which would be welcomed to a certain extent, but it may be short-lived if the underlying health care issue has not been properly dealt with, and for this reason such an outcome would again be imperfect.
Until the markets can see clearly that the coronavirus pandemic is being contained at a global level, which will inevitably take time to play out in the absence of a vaccine, investors will probably have to make do with such imperfect options, outcomes or solutions, helping to explain why attempted market rallies based on massive liquidity injections alone are making so little headway.
Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
Oppenheimer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Nolan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Blunt%2C%20Robert%20Downey%20Jr%2C%20Florence%20Pugh%2C%20Matt%20Damon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Arabian Gulf League fixtures:
Friday:
- Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
- Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
- Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm
Saturday:
- Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
- Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
- Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MADAME%20WEB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20S.J.%20Clarkson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dakota%20Johnson%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%2C%20Sydney%20Sweeney%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20flat-six%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E525hp%20(GT3)%2C%20500hp%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E465Nm%20(GT3)%2C%20450Nm%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh944%2C000%20(GT3)%2C%20Dh581%2C700%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
RESULTS
5pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner AF Nashrah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Mutaqadim, Riccardo Iacopini, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
6pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Hameem, Jose Santiago, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
6.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner AF Almomayaz, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Dalil Al Carrere, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash.
7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Lahmoom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Jayide Al Boraq, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs: 2018 Jaguar E-Pace First Edition
Price, base / as tested: Dh186,480 / Dh252,735
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 246hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 365Nm @ 1,200rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Superliminal%20
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Pillow%20Castle%20Games%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Pillow%20Castle%20Games%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20Xbox%20Series%20One%20%26amp%3B%20X%2FS%2C%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PC%20and%20Mac%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
