Markets have attempted to rally over the past two weeks, buoyed by limitless quantitative easing and huge fiscal policy packages announced by governments and central banks around the world.
These rallies were already faltering at the end of last week, however, under the weight of the enormity of the economic destruction unfolding because of the measures being taken to combat the coronavirus. The International Monetary Fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva described it as "a crisis like no other" which goes to the heart of why measures taken to deal with past crises are having less effect this time around.
Of course markets would cheer if a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 was suddenly available, but at the moment this 'perfect' scenario looks some way off.
Equity markets attempted to rally as policymakers rolled out the textbook responses seen during past global crises, but on an altogether bigger scale. They also seized on periodic glimpses of optimism that showed a slowdown in the rate of new Covid-19 infections in Italy, for example, which might offer hope that global lockdowns are beginning to work.
They even saw oil prices rally on the possibility of a global output deal between major oil producers. However, even this could not sustain the broader market recoveries, as the economic cost of coronavirus became ominously clear at the end of last week with jobless rates soaring to unprecedented levels around the world.
What markets are struggling to come to terms with is that this crisis has its own unique characteristics, dynamics and timelines that no attempt to shoehorn a recovery by traditional means can probably change. Foremost is that this is a healthcare crisis first, an economic crisis second and a financial crisis third. This helps to explain why prioritising measures to deal with the financial aspect of it are having less effect than in the past.
This is not to say that policymakers are wrong to support the financial system, far from it, as preventing the financial system from collapsing is essential if governments are to have any chance of solving the bigger healthcare challenge as well as the economic one. However, market recoveries will not be sustainable until the source of the crisis is fixed, with a medical solution to coronavirus coming online, and until they can see a way forward for a sustainable economic recovery from the carnage currently being inflicted by the strategy of containment and lockdown measures.
There don't appear to be any easy remedies to these problems. Of course markets would cheer if a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 was suddenly available, but at the moment this 'perfect' scenario looks some way off. Instead investors are likely to have to make do with 'imperfect’ outcomes for some time to come.
In the absence of a vaccine, investors are hoping for signs the pandemic will run its course in the next month and that the trajectory of the Covid-19 infection and mortality rate will slow by their own volition or on account of the travel bans and lockdowns imposed. However, such hopes are not a reliable enough basis for a sustainable market recovery just yet. Furthermore, what if these polices have to be extended into May? The imposition of much tougher restrictions on travel and social activity have probably not been discounted and would keep most of the global economy shutdown for much longer than currently assumed.
Alternatively, at some point, governments will face difficult choices about the costs versus the benefits in terms of the economy and weigh the consequences of an early return to work against the risk of a further wave of infections and deaths.
Populations may even force such outcomes by their behaviours depending on how they challenge the restrictions. This could produce an upturn in the economy which would be welcomed to a certain extent, but it may be short-lived if the underlying health care issue has not been properly dealt with, and for this reason such an outcome would again be imperfect.
Until the markets can see clearly that the coronavirus pandemic is being contained at a global level, which will inevitably take time to play out in the absence of a vaccine, investors will probably have to make do with such imperfect options, outcomes or solutions, helping to explain why attempted market rallies based on massive liquidity injections alone are making so little headway.
Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Multitasking pays off for money goals
Tackling money goals one at a time cost financial literacy expert Barbara O'Neill at least $1 million.
That's how much Ms O'Neill, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University in the US, figures she lost by starting saving for retirement only after she had created an emergency fund, bought a car with cash and purchased a home.
"I tell students that eventually, 30 years later, I hit the million-dollar mark, but I could've had $2 million," Ms O'Neill says.
Too often, financial experts say, people want to attack their money goals one at a time: "As soon as I pay off my credit card debt, then I'll start saving for a home," or, "As soon as I pay off my student loan debt, then I'll start saving for retirement"."
People do not realise how costly the words "as soon as" can be. Paying off debt is a worthy goal, but it should not come at the expense of other goals, particularly saving for retirement. The sooner money is contributed, the longer it can benefit from compounded returns. Compounded returns are when your investment gains earn their own gains, which can dramatically increase your balances over time.
"By putting off saving for the future, you are really inhibiting yourself from benefiting from that wonderful magic," says Kimberly Zimmerman Rand , an accredited financial counsellor and principal at Dragonfly Financial Solutions in Boston. "If you can start saving today ... you are going to have a lot more five years from now than if you decide to pay off debt for three years and start saving in year four."
Roger Federer's 2018 record
Australian Open Champion
Rotterdam Champion
Indian Wells Runner-up
Miami Second round
Stuttgart Champion
Halle Runner-up
Wimbledon Quarter-finals
Cincinnati Runner-up
US Open Fourth round
Shanghai Semi-finals
Basel Champion
Paris Masters Semi-finals
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company%20profile
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Persuasion
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The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
65
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EScott%20Beck%2C%20Bryan%20Woods%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdam%20Driver%2C%20Ariana%20Greenblatt%2C%20Chloe%20Coleman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THURSDAY FIXTURES
4.15pm: Italy v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: Egypt v Mexico (Group B)
6.45pm: UAE v Japan (Group A)
8pm: Iran v Russia (Group B)
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.9" Liquid Retina IPS, 2360 x 1640, 264ppi, wide colour, True Tone, Apple Pencil support
Chip: Apple M1, 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Memory: 64/256GB storage; 8GB RAM
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, Smart HDR
Video: 4K @ 25/25/30/60fps, full HD @ 25/30/60fps, slo-mo @ 120/240fps
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR, Centre Stage; full HD @ 25/30/60fps
Audio: Stereo speakers
Biometrics: Touch ID
I/O: USB-C, smart connector (for folio/keyboard)
Battery: Up to 10 hours on Wi-Fi; up to 9 hours on cellular
Finish: Space grey, starlight, pink, purple, blue
Price: Wi-Fi – Dh2,499 (64GB) / Dh3,099 (256GB); cellular – Dh3,099 (64GB) / Dh3,699 (256GB)
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
PSG's line up
GK: Alphonse Areola (youth academy)
Defence - RB: Dani Alves (free transfer); CB: Marquinhos (€31.4 million); CB: Thiago Silva (€42m); LB: Layvin Kurzawa (€23m)
Midfield - Angel di Maria (€47m); Adrien Rabiot (youth academy); Marco Verratti (€12m)
Forwards - Neymar (€222m); Edinson Cavani (€63m); Kylian Mbappe (initial: loan; to buy: €180m)
Total cost: €440.4m (€620.4m if Mbappe makes permanent move)
Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Wydad 2 Urawa 3
Wydad Nahiri 21’, Hajhouj 90'
Urawa Antonio 18’, 60’, Kashiwagi 26’
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
