Events around US President Donald Trump’s positive coronavirus test unfolded suddenly at the end of last week and developed quite rapidly, with markets caught off guard by the news.
Understandably, equity markets around the world lost ground on Friday, but only modestly as the impression was initially given that President Trump’s symptoms were mild. Bond and gold markets were underpinned but oil prices fell sharply and the dollar was relatively stable.
Only after markets closed on Friday was it announced that President Trump had been hospitalised, raising questions about the transparency of the White House and increasing the likelihood that market pressures will persist, especially now that the election is less than one month away.
Following weak equity market performances in September, October was already shaping up to be another turbulent month with markets balancing mixed economic data, the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough, no news on a pending US fiscal stimulus and ongoing US-China tensions. On top of all this, the election on November 3 was coming into sharper focus following the chaotic first presidential debate last week, which deepened concerns about the possible outcome.
Obviously, the positive test for President Trump introduces a new element of uncertainty into the mix, especially now that markets know that he is in hospital.
The usual focus on the monthly jobs report was understandably overlooked, with the data showing a smaller-than-expected gain of 661,000 in non-farm payrolls in September, but with revisions making up for the shortfall and with the unemployment rate declining to 7.9 per cent from 8.4 per cent.
Even comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicating that she was working with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a fiscal deal failed to get as much reaction as would normally be the case given the uncertainty about President Trump.
Investors were already looking at the likelihood of a very turbulent month ahead before the President succumbed to Covid-19
The opinion polls before the latest news already strongly favoured the Democrats, with financial markets concerned about possible changes in tax policy and regulatory policy that could follow a Joe Biden victory, which might be viewed as market-unfriendly. The initial reaction of the markets to President Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis indeed reflected a sense that a Democrat victory could now be more likely, with the drop in the oil price in particular a function of the growing awareness of Mr Biden’s more negative position on the oil sector.
Traditionally, electorates might be expected to rally around a hospitalised President, but while there is undoubtedly sympathy for President Trump, the electorate is more polarised than ever before and this news may be more prone to reinforce divisions, rather than unify the country.
But, there are still a number of other possible outcomes that could yet come into play in the election. One of them is that President Trump simply makes a swift recovery, which could support his position that he is physically stronger than Mr Biden and actually help his election campaign recover.
At the other extreme is the possibility that the President becomes incapacitated. In such a scenario, Vice-President Mike Pence would likely be sworn in and then there could be pressure to postpone the election, something that has never happened before.
Congress would be the arbiter of such matters, but clearly the possibility of a delay could yet work in President Trump’s favour, especially as such a possibility has been something he has previously mooted. Furthermore, if any sudden national security issue were to arise during this period, forcing Congress to come together, this could also be seen as strengthening the position of the incumbent.
Other scenarios that might have to be considered include the possibility of President Trump standing down should his health deteriorate so much and the Republican Party having to choose another candidate, and someone who might have a better chance of beating Mr Biden.
Financial markets will likely have to weigh up the possibility of all these potential outcomes in the coming days, all of which are likely to keep them very much on edge, especially as they await every health bulletin. Investors were already looking at the likelihood of a very turbulent month ahead before the President succumbed to Covid-19, but the outlook has just become a lot more unclear and first reactions may yet turn out to be wrong.
Tim Fox is a prominent regional economist and financial market analyst
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Upcoming games
SUNDAY
Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton (5.30pm)
Leicester City v Everton (8pm)
MONDAY
Burnley v Newcastle United (midnight)
Uefa Nations League
League A:
Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, France, England, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Iceland, Croatia, Netherlands
League B:
Austria, Wales, Russia, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, Republic of Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey
League C:
Hungary, Romania, Scotland, Slovenia, Greece, Serbia, Albania, Norway, Montenegro, Israel, Bulgaria, Finland, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania
League D:
Azerbaijan, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
