Markets ended April in good shape, with major indices rallying and optimism growing that movement restrictions will be eased this month as countries enter the next phase of the coronavirus crisis.
Despite economic data demonstrating the devastating effect of lockdowns over the past two months, many investors think their relaxation will give way to recoveries in the second half of the year with the hope the negative fallout will be short-lived, especially if a treatment or vaccine for Covid-19 is found.
Casting a further shadow over the future is the resurrection of the issue that dogged markets throughout last year – the US-China trade dispute
Markets, however, are still overlooking warnings from policymakers that returns to normality could actually take much longer. The European Central Bank’s chief economist Philip Lane says it could take at least three years for the eurozone’s economy to recover to where it was before the crisis. Markets are also overlooking warnings from scientists that a vaccine will take much longer to be found, while companies are becoming more circumspect about the outlook issuing cautionary guidance or even no guidance at all due to the immense challenges they are facing. As such, there are still plenty of reasons to remain wary of the pace and extent of recent equity market recoveries.
Casting a further shadow over the future is the resurrection of the issue that dogged markets throughout last year – the US-China trade dispute – as US President Donald Trump calls for China to be held accountable for the coronavirus pandemic. Somewhat ominously, markets started the first day of this month by dropping sharply following tweets from Mr Trump demanding an investigation into Covid-19’s origins and hinting at retaliation against Beijing. Mr Trump is clearly weighing the political benefits that might accrue from threatening China as the US approaches the presidential election in November, which might outweigh any perceived costs to the economy and even to markets.
It is not certain yet what path Mr Trump will choose to go down, but the mere mention of a return to tariffs and the possible consideration of cancelling debt obligations to China are clearly things that make financial markets very nervous, especially so soon after the trade war ended and in the midst of the worst global recession in decades.
Having signed the first phase of a trade deal in January, which wound down trade tensions between the US and China and brought an end to the introduction of new tariffs, markets were hopeful that phase two talks could begin later this year. This now looks very unlikely, especially with political pressures in Washington starting to build.
Mr Trump’s opinion poll ratings are consistently trailing those of his likely Democrat rival Joe Biden, and in the past 70 years no president with ratings as low as Mr Trump’s (in the mid-40 per cent) at this stage of a campaign have then gone on to win. With time running out in the run up to November, and with the economy unlikely to give him the clear validation he assumed it would prior to coronavirus, populist moves against China seem to be a likelihood in the coming months.
However, with jobs and the economy at risk, playing the China card will not be as straightforward as it was last year. The White House will have to tread very carefully in articulating its case, and more importantly in implementing it. Last week’s volley of accusations blaming China for the pandemic might simply be a case of testing the water, to assess the market reaction and also the effect on Mr Trump’s ratings. Depending on what they show, the Trump Presidency will have to decide how far it can go in terms of reigniting a trade war.
The other dynamic that needs to be taken into account is the progress countering the coronavirus itself. Should the easing of movement restrictions proceed without giving rise to a resumption of Covid-19 cases, then it may be calculated that risks can be taken in the area of trade and tariffs. But if the markets start to become vexed again by prolonged restrictions and easing delays, which is a clear possibility, then the danger of adding another source of tension may become a risk too far.
Tim Fox is chief economist & head of research at Emirates NBD
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Red Joan
Director: Trevor Nunn
Starring: Judi Dench, Sophie Cookson, Tereza Srbova
Rating: 3/5 stars
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MATCH INFO
Mainz 0
RB Leipzig 5 (Werner 11', 48', 75', Poulsen 23', Sabitzer 36')
Man of the Match: Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
if you go
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Tom Fletcher on 'soft power'
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
MANDOOB
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
