Markets ended April in good shape, with major indices rallying and optimism growing that movement restrictions will be eased this month as countries enter the next phase of the coronavirus crisis.
Despite economic data demonstrating the devastating effect of lockdowns over the past two months, many investors think their relaxation will give way to recoveries in the second half of the year with the hope the negative fallout will be short-lived, especially if a treatment or vaccine for Covid-19 is found.
Casting a further shadow over the future is the resurrection of the issue that dogged markets throughout last year – the US-China trade dispute
Markets, however, are still overlooking warnings from policymakers that returns to normality could actually take much longer. The European Central Bank’s chief economist Philip Lane says it could take at least three years for the eurozone’s economy to recover to where it was before the crisis. Markets are also overlooking warnings from scientists that a vaccine will take much longer to be found, while companies are becoming more circumspect about the outlook issuing cautionary guidance or even no guidance at all due to the immense challenges they are facing. As such, there are still plenty of reasons to remain wary of the pace and extent of recent equity market recoveries.
Casting a further shadow over the future is the resurrection of the issue that dogged markets throughout last year – the US-China trade dispute – as US President Donald Trump calls for China to be held accountable for the coronavirus pandemic. Somewhat ominously, markets started the first day of this month by dropping sharply following tweets from Mr Trump demanding an investigation into Covid-19’s origins and hinting at retaliation against Beijing. Mr Trump is clearly weighing the political benefits that might accrue from threatening China as the US approaches the presidential election in November, which might outweigh any perceived costs to the economy and even to markets.
It is not certain yet what path Mr Trump will choose to go down, but the mere mention of a return to tariffs and the possible consideration of cancelling debt obligations to China are clearly things that make financial markets very nervous, especially so soon after the trade war ended and in the midst of the worst global recession in decades.
Having signed the first phase of a trade deal in January, which wound down trade tensions between the US and China and brought an end to the introduction of new tariffs, markets were hopeful that phase two talks could begin later this year. This now looks very unlikely, especially with political pressures in Washington starting to build.
Mr Trump’s opinion poll ratings are consistently trailing those of his likely Democrat rival Joe Biden, and in the past 70 years no president with ratings as low as Mr Trump’s (in the mid-40 per cent) at this stage of a campaign have then gone on to win. With time running out in the run up to November, and with the economy unlikely to give him the clear validation he assumed it would prior to coronavirus, populist moves against China seem to be a likelihood in the coming months.
However, with jobs and the economy at risk, playing the China card will not be as straightforward as it was last year. The White House will have to tread very carefully in articulating its case, and more importantly in implementing it. Last week’s volley of accusations blaming China for the pandemic might simply be a case of testing the water, to assess the market reaction and also the effect on Mr Trump’s ratings. Depending on what they show, the Trump Presidency will have to decide how far it can go in terms of reigniting a trade war.
The other dynamic that needs to be taken into account is the progress countering the coronavirus itself. Should the easing of movement restrictions proceed without giving rise to a resumption of Covid-19 cases, then it may be calculated that risks can be taken in the area of trade and tariffs. But if the markets start to become vexed again by prolonged restrictions and easing delays, which is a clear possibility, then the danger of adding another source of tension may become a risk too far.
Tim Fox is chief economist & head of research at Emirates NBD
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
Read more about the coronavirus
More coverage from the Future Forum
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
SQUADS
Bangladesh (from): Shadman Islam, Mominul Haque, Soumya Sarkar, Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Mahmudullah Riyad, Mohammad Mithun, Mushfiqur Rahim, Liton Das, Taijul Islam, Mosaddek Hossain, Nayeem Hasan, Mehedi Hasan, Taskin Ahmed, Ebadat Hossain, Abu Jayed
Afghanistan (from): Rashid Khan (capt), Ihsanullah Janat, Javid Ahmadi, Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi, Asghar Afghan, Ikram Alikhil, Mohammad Nabi, Qais Ahmad, Sayed Ahmad Shirzad, Yamin Ahmadzai, Zahir Khan Pakteen, Afsar Zazai, Shapoor Zadran
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
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Company%20profile
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Women%E2%80%99s%20Asia%20Cup
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%202%2C%20v%20Sri%20Lanka%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%204%2C%20v%20India%3Cbr%3EWed%20Oct%205%2C%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EFri%20Oct%207%2C%20v%20Thailand%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%209%2C%20v%20Pakistan%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%2011%2C%20v%20Bangladesh%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EChaya%20Mughal%20(captain)%2C%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Priyanjali%20Jain%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Natasha%20Cherriath%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Rishitha%20Rajith%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Mahika%20Gaur%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The nine articles of the 50-Year Charter
1. Dubai silk road
2. A geo-economic map for Dubai
3. First virtual commercial city
4. A central education file for every citizen
5. A doctor to every citizen
6. Free economic and creative zones in universities
7. Self-sufficiency in Dubai homes
8. Co-operative companies in various sectors
9: Annual growth in philanthropy
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.4-inch IPS LCD, 400 nits, toughened glass
CPU: Unisoc T610; Mali G52 GPU
Memory: 4GB
Storage: 64GB, up to 512GB microSD
Camera: 8MP rear, 5MP front
Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.0, USB-C, 3.5mm audio
Battery: 8200mAh, up to 10 hours video
Platform: Android 11
Audio: Stereo speakers, 2 mics
Durability: IP52
Biometrics: Face unlock
Price: Dh849
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
WISH
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'Hocus%20Pocus%202'
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More from Armen Sarkissian
The Prison Letters of Nelson Mandela
Edited by Sahm Venter
Published by Liveright
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
