When I first considered building a share portfolio, I was very intrigued to learn how investors reached their decisions. I quizzed every trader I met in an attempt to understand their methods, because I knew that their actions could affect my money.
Some told me it was all linked to charts. Like ancient pirates with a map of an island marked "treasure here" and a cross, they claimed to pore over charts, picking when a share had breached its trend line. That way it might set a new trend.
"The trend is your friend," they would trumpet. It sounded like nonsense to me.
Another trader told me that his secret was that he read The Guardian newspaper, while just about everybody else read The Daily Telegraph or The Sun. The Guardian's city man was ahead of the competition, he explained, and he was the lucky beneficiary. This sounded implausible.
"Counter intuition is the key," he said. That seemed unlikely. After all, didn't Warren Buffett say that you should invest in a company that an idiot could run, because after a while, an idiot will end up running it?
Another told me that it was all down to his lucky red socks. If he started having a successful run, he would not change his socks until he started losing money. This could last for a week, maybe even a month. Good for the bank's shareholders and his annual bonus, but probably not great for his colleagues.
After the events of the last six months, I am now more sceptical than ever that none of these homespun investment tips is worthwhile. I prefer the competition that a newspaper used to run every year, when it compared how analyst's stock tips compared to throwing darts into a board. Few were the lucky analysts who beat the board. But new research is on hand to show just what is required to make a success in the city.
Scientists at Cambridge University have analysed the hands of 44 city traders - yes, really that many - and discovered that those traders who succeed tend to have ring fingers that are longer than their index fingers. The link could be down to testosterone exposure in the womb, according to the National Academy of Sciences. This exposure may improve rapid decision-making skills and has been linked with aggression.
Imagine the scene: you finish your education - a first-class degree from Oxford or Harvard, including spells of work experience with all the best firms - then you go in for a final interview. They ask you about the Black-Scholes Options Pricing formula; they want to know your view on the Colombian economy and what to do about the Palestinian problem. They are impressed, you can tell the interview is going well. Then they ask you to show them your hands.
They measure the size of your ring finger compared to your index finger, shake their heads, and say thank you for coming. Then give the job to someone else. This is as fatuous a piece of scientific mumbo-jumbo as I have ever come across. It strikes me as the sort of thing that was a good idea to look into all the while the markets were going up. Now, who cares? And how, I wonder, did those long-fingered traders make out when the markets turned against them? Did their testosterone-charged fingers save them or get them into more trouble?
The researchers said that traders with longer ring fingers made 11 times more money than those with the shortest ring fingers relative to their index fingers. Did they lose money by a similar ratio?
The scientists also pointed out that it also helped to be experienced in the job. In fact, that was as relevant as how long your ring finger was compared to your index finger. Which kind of makes the whole research redundant. A bit like all the brokers in Dubai who are being laid off because nobody is buying equities anymore. In order to stem the flood of bad news, the Dubai Financial Services Authority has issued a statement saying that it will no longer issue public announcements on whether people have been granted licences, or had them withdrawn.
I don't think this will fool anyone. Firms that win a licence will issue their own press releases. Those that leave will go quietly. But just because we don't hear about their exit, that doesn't mean they are still there. It is not like the conundrum of whether a tree falling in a forest makes a sound if there is nobody there to hear it.
My suggestion to the DFSA is to issue everybody with "lucky" red socks. That should restore confidence, boost trading volumes and bring the exchange back into positive territory. Just as long as the socks get a wash every so often.
rwright@thenational.ae
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
UK%20record%20temperature
%3Cp%3E38.7C%20(101.7F)%20set%20in%20Cambridge%20in%202019%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
