In April 1912, an English newspaper called the Evening Telegram noted with relief that the death of John Astor in the Titanic disaster would not, after all, affect Wall Street.
Astor, the famed property investor, chose to go down with the ship, giving up a chance to use his position to grab one of the all-too-few seats in a lifeboat. He died as he had lived, a man of honour.
"The stock exchange is not at all likely to suffer serious disturbance in consequence of the White Star disaster," the paper noted. It added, perhaps a touch insensitively: "Had a large number of very prominent and active financiers been on board, the market might have manifested a panicky feeling."
It is a truism that money has no conscience, something that is now starkly illustrated by the terrible events in Japan.
As we watched in horror as nature overwhelmed the northern parts of the country, with its televised scenes of people caught in a struggle to survive, investors scrambled with a whole different set of priorities: how to protect their wealth.
This is nothing new, as the market report on the Titanic sinking illustrates. Markets have always responded wildly to such events. With the onset of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, US petrol prices spiked 18 per cent in four days. Then, just as suddenly, they fell again, after massive government support of the release of strategic reserves.
The undeniable fact is that although humans can show great compassion and empathy with those who suffer calamity, money is indisputably indifferent. As distasteful as this is, it's worth keeping this in mind because the "interconnectedness" of the modern world means disaster far away can still affect your personal investments.
A personal example: a friend of mine, a geophysicist, is a consultant to the mining industry. He'd just returned from a conference in Canada, where he had successfully drummed up business for his prospecting consultancy, when the Fukushima reactor began to overheat. His field of expertise? Uranium developments in Namibia and Kazakhstan. To date, nobody is returning his calls.
This is because markets respond to two basic emotions: greed and fear.
In the week after the earthquake and tsunami, Japan's Nikkei lost 12 per cent; the Dow Jones and S&P surrendered almost all their gains for the year. This is bound to have an immediate affect on anyone with a pension fund or 401k investment.
The MSCI EAFE (or "Eeefa" as most call it) has about 20 per cent of its portfolio invested in Japanese stocks. This fund is the benchmark index used by most fund managers who portion some of their investments in stocks outside their home markets.
There is, however, an upside to this cynicism. Countries do recover from disasters and Japan is better equipped than most to do so. Its people are well educated and resilient. Many will be betting the Japanese are even now picking themselves up to rebuild their shattered cities.
Barton Biggs, the former chief strategist at Morgan Stanley who now runs the US$1.4 billion (Dh5.1bn) hedge fund Traxis Partners, said last week in The Wall Street Journal he had begun to buy Japanese shares.
"They'll sell Treasurys and rebuild, they can finance it because it's a country of savers," he said. "They'll have to rebuild Japan and the rebuilding will give a boost to the economy."
Warren Buffett, the world's greatest investor, has also said he sees a "buying opportunity" in Japan. When Mr Buffet speaks, it's worth leaning a little closer.
Others are sure to follow. Selling off now in the midst of this crisis will only lock in losses - and make it more expensive when you eventually get the nerve to go back in.
Still, just as bad as panicking now is trying to catch the falling knife. Because Japanese stocks seem cheap, it does not mean they won't get cheaper. It's one thing for billion-dollar investors such as Mr Biggs or Mr Buffet to try timing the market. Quite another for the small private investor. Contrarians will be taking the plunge now - and, generally, they anticipate some losses by doing so. As a small investor, you should not be joining them.
Ultimately, the best strategy for unexpected events is to do nothing. Reacting to circumstances that have a murky outcome is little more than gambling with your savings. Even if you get lucky this time, the chances are you won't when the next one arrives.
Gavin du Venage is a business writer and entrepreneur based in South Africa.
pf@thenational.ae
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Racecard:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy | Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Balanchine | Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster
Price, base: Dh708,750
Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 374hp (total)
Torque: 570Nm (total)
Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Freedom Artist
By Ben Okri (Head of Zeus)
As it stands in Pool A
1. Japan - Played 3, Won 3, Points 14
2. Ireland - Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1, Points 11
3. Scotland - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Points 5
Remaining fixtures
Scotland v Russia – Wednesday, 11.15am
Ireland v Samoa – Saturday, 2.45pm
Japan v Scotland – Sunday, 2.45pm
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now