2020 will go down as the year when global house prices should have crashed as Covid-19 sent the world hurtling into recession, but somehow didn't.
A combination of monetary stimulus, near-zero interest rates and steady demand helped underpin the market, sustaining prices and activity.
Incredibly, the worldwide house price boom even accelerated in many countries across Europe, Asia-Pacific, the US and Canada, according to Globalpropertyguide.com. It found that prices rose in 45 out of 55 housing markets for the 12 months to September 30, and fell in just 10.
Transaction volumes are also healthy, as the lockdown persuaded growing numbers to exchange cramped urban life for outdoor space and gardens, with homeowners moving to the suburbs or further out.
Property price growth in Turkey, Vietnam, New Zealand and Germany all topped 12 per cent, while Austria, the Netherlands, Taiwan and Canada grew between 6 and 7 per cent.
Prices in the Gulf region fell, though, with Saudi Arabia falling 3.51 per cent and Dubai edging down 4.88 per cent. Egypt fared worst of all major markets, posting a 22.31 per cent drop, the Globalpropertyguide study shows.
The US was hit hard by the pandemic but prices still rose 5.51 per cent, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, up from just 1.46 per cent the year before. The UK took a major hit from the pandemic, and also had to contend with Brexit uncertainty, but its market is enjoying yet another boom.
Prices rose 6.5 per cent in the year to November 30, according to local lender Nationwide. That was due to pent-up demand after the lockdown and the temporary stamp duty “holiday”, which triggered a surge in activity as buyers looked to bag a saving of up to £15,000 ($20,148).
Global house prices have defied gravity, just as they did after the 2008 financial crisis, and once again that is mostly down to low borrowing costs, as well as people's voracious demand for property.
With interest rates expected to stay low for some time, a crash may be averted next year, too.
This may disappoint some UAE-based expats and residents, who were hoping to bag a cut-price property in a correction.
Next year could still be bumpy, despite recent vaccine breakthroughs, as government support programmes and jobs disappear.
The International Monetary Fund projects that after falling 4.4 per cent this year, global gross domestic product will rebound by 5.2 per cent in 2021, but it also warned that “the ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven and highly uncertain”.
Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, rules out a crash in the major global cities.
She expects most cities to post growth in the low single digits in 2021, with Shanghai and Cape Town leading the way by rising 5 per cent.
London, Sydney, Paris, Berlin and Madrid will see prime prices rebound due to “low interest rates, pent-up demand, tax holidays or firm market fundamentals”, Ms Everett-Allen says.
London, Lisbon and Miami should each grow around 4 per cent in 2021, with Auckland, Paris, Berlin, Singapore, Monaco, Madrid, Sydney, Vancouver, Los Angeles and Geneva rising 3 per cent.
New York should recover as excess inventory is absorbed and buyers recognise its relative value, Ms Everett-Allen says. “Auckland, Vancouver, Geneva, Los Angeles and Miami have seen activity surge as residents looked to upgrade to larger properties with more outside space.”
Vienna, Melbourne, Hong Kong, Mumbai and New York should be more or less flat, with Buenos Aires the worst performer with a projected fall of 8 per cent, Knight Frank research shows.
The global property market will face some tough challenges next year, with Europe still in lockdown and fiscal stimulus measures set to taper off in early 2021, Ms Everett-Allen says. “Investors may suffer as rents decline due to the lack of international students and a surge in supply, as landlords switch from holiday lets to long-term rentals.”
"It is important not to buy at overpriced market values, while some European markets are expected to recover quicker than others
Mortgages could be harder to come by, making cash buyers king, Ms Everett Allen adds. "Finance looks set to remain cheap but lenders will be more cautious, raising loan-to-value ratios and making finance costlier for highly-leveraged clients.”
So what about Dubai? Knight Frank forecasts another price fall next year, of a modest 2 per cent.
However, Arran Summerhill, company director at Holo Mortgage Consultants, is more optimistic. He says the Dubai property market was bottoming out before the pandemic, as buyers took advantage of low prices and cheap finance.
The Central Bank of the UAE’s decision in March to let banks increase LTVs by 5 per cent for first-time buyers has further boosted activity, he adds.
There is now an influx of first-time buyers, the majority of whom are targeting villa or townhouse properties rather than apartments, Mr Summerhill says.
He has seen signs of price growth in recent weeks, too. “Reports of bidding wars in prime areas suggest a lack of availability and high demand.”
Any buyer who can cover a 20 per cent down payment and transaction fees should find this a good moment to buy, he adds. "Property prices are their lowest for 10 years, interest rates are the lowest ever, and there are still deals to be done.”
International buyers should beware of changes as governments look to raise money to fund their pandemic spending splurge. Spain and Canada are considering wealth taxes, and the US and UK are looking at higher capital gains taxes, which are likely to hit second homeowners when they sell up.
Buying a property in London will get notably more expensive for international investors from April.
The current stamp duty holiday, which applies to both local and overseas buyers, expires on March 31, 2021.
On April 1, 2021, the stamp duty surcharge on overseas buyers is expected to jump from 3 to 5 per cent. These changes mean the total stamp duty bill for an oversea buyer purchasing a £500,000 property will jump from £15,000 to £40,000 overnight.
UAE-based buyers must factor in these costs and keep an eye on government announcements as the main stamp duty holiday could be extended due to a massive backlog in activity, says Islay Robinson, chief executive officer at Enness Global. “We are also waiting to see whether the surcharge on overseas investors will actually be introduced. All this makes market timing vital.”
Despite the UK's troubles, its property market is holding firm, particularly in prime areas, says Aaron Strutt, product and communications director at international mortgage broker Trinity Financial. "People have been predicting a crash ever since the last financial crisis, but demand continues to outstrip supply.”
Many international investors consider residential property to be crisis-resistant and remain keen to buy affordable apartments and single family houses, Dr Nicole Lux, senior research fellow at City, University of London’s Business School (formerly Cass), says.
“It is important not to buy at overpriced market values, while some European markets are expected to recover quicker than others. While today might be a good time to invest in Germany or the UK, it might not be the right time to invest in, say, Greece or Poland.”
As always, where you buy property is a personal decision, and may depend on factors such as where you come from, and where you plan to retire.
Analysts have been predicting a global property market crash for the past 15 years, but so far it hasn't happened.
The days of “flipping” properties for a fast profit might be over, though, as the global economy takes a massive hit from the pandemic. Interest rates cannot go any lower, and one day they may even rise. Make sure you can still afford to service your mortgage if they do.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Dunki
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In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The years Ramadan fell in May
Recipe: Spirulina Coconut Brothie
Ingredients
1 tbsp Spirulina powder
1 banana
1 cup unsweetened coconut milk (full fat preferable)
1 tbsp fresh turmeric or turmeric powder
½ cup fresh spinach leaves
½ cup vegan broth
2 crushed ice cubes (optional)
Method
Blend all the ingredients together on high in a high-speed blender until smooth and creamy.
T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.6-litre turbo
Transmission: six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp
Torque: 240Nm
Price: From Dh89,000 (Enjoy), Dh99,900 (Innovation)
On sale: Now
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Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The years Ramadan fell in May
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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RESULTS
Bantamweight:
Zia Mashwani (PAK) bt Chris Corton (PHI)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) bt Mohammad Al Khatib (JOR)
Super lightweight:
Dwight Brooks (USA) bt Alex Nacfur (BRA)
Bantamweight:
Tariq Ismail (CAN) bt Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
Featherweight:
Abdullatip Magomedov (RUS) bt Sulaiman Al Modhyan (KUW)
Middleweight:
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) bt Christofer Silva (BRA)
Middleweight:
Rustam Chsiev (RUS) bt Tarek Suleiman (SYR)
Welterweight:
Khamzat Chimaev (SWE) bt Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA)
Lightweight:
Alex Martinez (CAN) bt Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Welterweight:
Jarrah Al Selawi (JOR) bt Abdoul Abdouraguimov (FRA)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
