The US Treasury Building in Washington DC. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell slightly from 2.4 per cent at the end of 2016 to close 2017 at 2.4 per cent. Michael Reynolds / EPA
The US Treasury Building in Washington DC. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell slightly from 2.4 per cent at the end of 2016 to close 2017 at 2.4 per cent. Michael Reynolds / EPA

Investors should note the warning from US Treasuries



US equities responded to the Trump presidency with euphoria. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25 per cent in 2017, becoming one of the best-performing global asset classes. It was a different story with US Treasuries: the yield on 10-year notes fell slightly from 2.4 per cent at the end of 2016 to close at 2.4 per cent in 2017 . And the spread in yield between two-year and 10-year notes, often a signal of slowing growth or forthcoming recession, plunged from 125 basis points to 51.8 basis points at year-end 2017.

As they receive different messages from equities and Treasuries, investors should pay particular heed to the bond market in making asset-allocation decisions for 2018. Treasuries have been a better predictor of the two recessions in the 21st century - the first lasted from March to November 2001, and the second from December 2007 to June 2009. In the case of the latter, yields plunged during the months before the recession whereas equities remained strong well into the first half of 2008 when the economy was already in a downturn.

There is good reason to believe Treasuries are sending a warning now.

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A guide to bond funds - what they are and who needs them

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The bond market's sense of caution in 2017 was not assuaged by the successful passage of the tax bill. While the yield on 10-year notes rose to almost 2.5 per cent on December 20 when it became clear the measure would pass and get president Trump's signature, it fell subsequently, closing the month little changed.

The surge in equities stemmed from corporate earnings that exceeded consensus estimates in recent quarters and, lately, the reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent. Nonetheless, the decline in bond yields signals the surge in equities may not be accompanied by faster economic growth or a significant pickup in inflation.

Narrower spreads between two- and 10-year Treasuries also reflect speculation that the Fed’s stated objective of raising the federal funds rate three times in 2018 may not be met. If the economy slows significantly after an initial burst of optimism over the tax cuts, the 10-year yield is likely to fall further even as the two-year yield rises with Fed tightening, eventually resulting in an inverted yield curve. Yield curve inversion was the harbinger of recessions in 2001 and 2007 to 2009.

While recessions have always been preceded by the two- to 10-year spread going negative, a negative spread has not always ended in a recession. For example, the inversion of the yield curve in May through June 1998 did not deter gross domestic product from rising in inflation-corrected terms by more than 3 per cent in 1999 and during the first half of 2000.

This has led some market watchers to suggest that a potential negative spread should not be a source of concern. There are several reasons I disagree with this sanguine view.

First, wage growth remains anaemic despite the quintupling of the Fed’s balance sheet since the financial crisis and the still-low interest rates almost 10 years later. This may not be offset by the recent tax package. Non-partisan institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office have calculated that the benefits of the tax cuts are tilted heavily in favour of upper-income earners who are not major consumers. Consumption accounts for about two-thirds of US GDP.

Second, the new regulations incorporate reduced government spending on health care. This will discourage consumption by low-income and elderly Americans even as lower tax rates are intended to increase spending.

Third, a pickup in economic growth is contingent on companies responding to the lower corporate tax rate by hiring more workers and increasing their wages. Global competition from low-cost producers will limit US companies’ ability to achieve these goals, and stock buybacks and increased dividends are the more likely outcome. That is why the recent surge in equity prices is a logical outcome even as inflationary expectations remain low, resulting in lower bond yields.

To summarise, as investors consider where markets are headed in 2018, they should be especially mindful of the message from the bond markets. From their current lofty valuations, equities cannot keep rising for long if bond yields and the economy do not co-operate.

Komal Sri Kumar is the president and founder of Sri Kumar Global Strategies, and the former chief global strategist of Trust Company of the West

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia

Schedule:

Friday, January 12: Six fourball matches
Saturday, January 13: Six foursome (alternate shot) matches
Sunday, January 14: 12 singles

The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands

50-man Royal Rumble

Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match

Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe

SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos

Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho

John Cena v Triple H

Matches to be announced

WWE World Heavyweight Championship, Raw Tag Team Championship, United States Championship and the Cruiserweight Championship are all due to be defended

Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush

Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”

A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.

“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”

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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

Company profile

Company name: Suraasa

Started: 2018

Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker

Based: India, UAE and the UK

Industry: EdTech

Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding

Brief scores:

Pakistan (1st innings) 181: Babar 71; Olivier 6-37

South Africa (1st innings) 223: Bavuma 53; Amir 4-62

Pakistan (2nd innings) 190: Masood 65, Imam 57; Olivier 5-59

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

RESULTS
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MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score):

Manchester City (0) v Tottenham Hotspur (1), Wednesday, 11pm UAE

Match is on BeIN Sports

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Vikram%20Vedha
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Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"