Risk-on moods returned to financial markets this week. Stocks have been weighed down since the beginning of May as market participants started to consider the threat of inflation in the US. However, with recent comments from the Federal Reserve about committing to lower interest rates, risky assets caught a bid.
With the Fed in the midst of a mammoth $120 billion monthly spending programme and US consumption on the uptick as the Covid-19 pandemic starts to wane amid increased vaccination rollout, inflationary threats were always on the cards for the US economy.
It is this threat that many in the Fed and mainstream media are referring to as “transitory inflation”, which has kept any gains in riskier assets and particularly growth stocks in check this month.
Inflation remains one of the key parameters of the Fed’s dual mandate, along with maximum employment. The recent consumer spending spree has seen US inflation tick above 4 per cent in the April reading and a recent survey of consumers showed inflation expectations were at their highest level since 2014.
Google trends show that inflation searches have quadrupled in the past two weeks. Consider this theme to dominate investor sentiment in the lead up to summer.
Gold has been a particular beneficiary of the inflation theme. The precious metal has broken out to near five-month highs at $1,869 at the time of writing. That’s a move of more than 5.6 per cent in May alone.
Historically, gold has been seen as a hedge against inflation and this sentiment will see the precious metal make a clear test of the $1,874 channel, which is a key resistance level. A break of this level will expose $1,955 to $2,000 levels in the weeks ahead.
While it is too late to initiate long positions, I would wait to see how the inflation theme plays out before triggering fresh long positions and still see $1,670 levels as an optimal entry for gold bulls.
The threat of inflation has kept any gains in riskier assets and particularly growth stocks in check through May
Looking ahead to June, we have a couple of key central bank meetings, which could shed more light on the direction of markets in the second half of this year. The US Fed will reconvene on June 15 and 16 and the European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on June 10.
If we start with the latter, the improving euro-area economic outlook could see the ECB announce a slowdown in the pace of its pandemic programme asset purchases, while I don’t expect the Fed to change its wait-and-watch accommodative approach.
EUR-USD on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange has continued its strong gains – the pair is currently trading shy of 1.22 levels. Technically, next up is the psychological level of 1.24, which we last saw at the end of 2020.
While it will not be a straightforward run towards 1.24, I expect EUR-USD to fulfil this level by the end of the third quarter of this year. GBP-USD on DGCX has moved towards 1.42 levels, with 1.4360 the next key resistance level.
Earnings continue in the US this week. At the time of publishing, Walmart and Baidu would have announced and Cisco is due later on Wednesday. Due to the inflationary theme mentioned earlier, I don’t have much confidence that beats on earnings will necessarily help stocks.
Instead, I would expect daily gyrations to be driven by investor sentiment on the back of this reflationary theme. I also expect value stocks to outperform growth stocks in the short term.
Finally, crypto markets traded lower as billionaire Elon Musk pulled the plug on Bitcoin-backed purchases by his company Tesla. In a sensational move, Mr Musk backtracked on his stance from earlier this year.
After hitting as high as $4,300, Ethereum finds itself trading below $3,500 and Bitcoin is trading near its February lows of $44,000.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures DMCC. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
Breast cancer in men: the facts
1) Breast cancer is men is rare but can develop rapidly. It usually occurs in those over the ages of 60, but can occasionally affect younger men.
2) Symptoms can include a lump, discharge, swollen glands or a rash.
3) People with a history of cancer in the family can be more susceptible.
4) Treatments include surgery and chemotherapy but early diagnosis is the key.
5) Anyone concerned is urged to contact their doctor
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Pakistanis%20at%20the%20ILT20%20
%3Cp%3EThe%20new%20UAE%20league%20has%20been%20boosted%20this%20season%20by%20the%20arrival%20of%20five%20Pakistanis%2C%20who%20were%20not%20released%20to%20play%20last%20year.%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EShaheen%20Afridi%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESet%20for%20at%20least%20four%20matches%2C%20having%20arrived%20from%20New%20Zealand%20where%20he%20captained%20Pakistan%20in%20a%20series%20loss.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShadab%20Khan%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%0DThe%20leg-spin%20bowling%20allrounder%20missed%20the%20tour%20of%20New%20Zealand%20after%20injuring%20an%20ankle%20when%20stepping%20on%20a%20ball.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAzam%20Khan%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EPowerhouse%20wicketkeeper%20played%20three%20games%20for%20Pakistan%20on%20tour%20in%20New%20Zealand.%20He%20was%20the%20first%20Pakistani%20recruited%20to%20the%20ILT20.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMohammed%20Amir%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHas%20made%20himself%20unavailable%20for%20national%20duty%2C%20meaning%20he%20will%20be%20available%20for%20the%20entire%20ILT20%20campaign.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EImad%20Wasim%20(Abu%20Dhabi%20Knight%20Riders)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20left-handed%20allrounder%2C%2035%2C%20retired%20from%20international%20cricket%20in%20November%20and%20was%20subsequently%20recruited%20by%20the%20Knight%20Riders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gully Boy
Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi
Rating: 4/5 stars
The Specs:
The Specs:
Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 444bhp
Torque: 600Nm
Price: AED 356,580 incl VAT
On sale: now.
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
The specs
Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 715bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh1,289,376
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Company profile
Name: The Concept
Founders: Yadhushan Mahendran, Maria Sobh and Muhammad Rijal
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 7
Sector: Aviation and space industry
Funding: $250,000
Future plans: Looking to raise $1 million investment to boost expansion and develop new products
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
Secret Pigeon Service: Operation Colomba, Resistance and the Struggle to Liberate Europe
Gordon Corera, Harper Collins
Tell-tale signs of burnout
- loss of confidence and appetite
- irritability and emotional outbursts
- sadness
- persistent physical ailments such as headaches, frequent infections and fatigue
- substance abuse, such as smoking or drinking more
- impaired judgement
- excessive and continuous worrying
- irregular sleep patterns
Tips to help overcome burnout
Acknowledge how you are feeling by listening to your warning signs. Set boundaries and learn to say ‘no’
Do activities that you want to do as well as things you have to do
Undertake at least 30 minutes of exercise per day. It releases an abundance of feel-good hormones
Find your form of relaxation and make time for it each day e.g. soothing music, reading or mindful meditation
Sleep and wake at the same time every day, even if your sleep pattern was disrupted. Without enough sleep condition such as stress, anxiety and depression can thrive.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
