Six years after the European Central Bank cut interest rates below 0 per cent, behavioural finance experts have a message for other central banks thinking about taking the plunge: don't.
Rates in the United States, Britain, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and Canada are at or below 0.25 per cent, so chances are one or more of their central banks will go sub-zero to try to counter the pandemic-fuelled economic downturn.
Money markets are pricing in the Bank of England making the move in 2021, while New Zealand's central bank has already asked banks to prepare for negative rates.
New studies, however, seem to reinforce what some policymakers have long feared – negative rates are ineffectual and perhaps even counterproductive.
"If your goal is to motivate people to take on more leverage [debt] and to increase investments in risky assets, then zero interest rates are actually more efficient than negative rates," said Lior David-Pur, head of Israel's state debt management unit.
Mr David-Pur co-authored a paper published last month in the Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Economics, which found the highest positive impact on risk-taking and borrowing behaviour was achieved when rates fell from 1 per cent to 0 per cent.
That is more or less in line with cuts made by central banks from the United States to Australia this year.
The study, a rare look into consumer reactions to negative rates, tracked the investment decisions of 205 university students studying economics who were divided into four groups, each with 10,000 Israeli shekels (Dh10,711/$2,921) to allocate between risk-free bank deposits and risky assets such as stocks.
Interest rates ranged from 2 per cent to minus 1 per cent but were then cut by 1 percentage point. Participants were then asked how much more money, if any, they wanted to borrow to invest.
It's not like you borrow and you buy a car or something that adds to GDP. When you borrow to buy housing, you don't get that stimulus effect.
Mr David-Pur said the group for which rates fell to minus 1 per cent, actually cut leverage by 1.75 per cent. But willingness to borrow rose by 20 per cent in the group that saw rates fall to 0 per cent.
"The number 0 per cent itself had special meaning for people," said Mr David-Pur, noting that once rates go negative, leverage – borrowing to invest – falls.
That's because negative rates can suggest "some kind of emergency situation", said Anatoli Annenkov, a former ECB economist who now works at Societe Generale.
"That per se suggests that you won't get the impact you want because people might just save more money instead of spending."
Indeed, savings rates across the eurozone dipped briefly after 2014, then continued to rise as official rates fell further below 0 per cent.
Detractors have long noted that neither inflation nor growth have rebounded in the euro area and Japan after years of negative rates.
Fredrik N G Andersson, associate professor at the Lund School of Economics and Management, said the cost of negative rates for Sweden's economy likely outweighed the benefits.
Sweden last year lifted its main rate back to 0 per cent.
Mr Andersson, who has researched the subject in detail, said borrowing did rise when rates were negative but money ended up invested mostly in housing, inflating property markets and household debt.
"It's not like you borrow and you buy a car or something that adds to GDP. When you borrow to buy housing, you don't get that stimulus effect," he said.
Business owners had held off investing, he added, echoing Mr Annenkov's view that the negative rates had been seen as a sign of crisis.
Another experiment at Germany's University of Münster found the risk-taking behaviour of more than 300 volunteer "investors" was likely to change if they saw risk-free rates turn negative, for example, on bank deposits.
While banks in negative-rate economies rarely charge depositors, Münster University associate professor, Hannes Mohrschladt, said that could happen if the ECB cuts rates further.
But he warned the ECB should beware of rate cuts that "might increase prices in stock and real estate markets even further".
Mr Andersson said evidence suggests central banks do not need negative rates to spur growth.
"I would say don't do it. It's not worth it."
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (rated 95-108) US$125,000 2000m (Dirt).
Winner: Don’t Give Up, Gerald Mosse (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (95 ) $160,000 2810m (Turf).
Winner: Los Barbados, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.40pm: Handicap (80-89) $60,000 1600m (D).
Winner: Claim The Roses, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (Div-1) Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D)
Winner: Gold Town, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Cape Verdi Group 2 $200,000 1600m (T).
Winner: Promising Run, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D).
Winner: El Chapo, Luke Morris, Fawzi Nass.
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (PA) Group 1 | US$75,000 (Dirt) | 2,200 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas (TB) Listed | $250,000 (D) | 1,600m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic Trial (TB) Conditions | $100,000 (Turf) | 1,400m
8.15pm: Al Shindagha Sprint (TB) Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,200m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (D) | 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
One-off T20 International: UAE v Australia
When: Monday, October 22, 2pm start
Where: Abu Dhabi Cricket, Oval 1
Tickets: Admission is free
Australia squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Darcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Peter Siddle
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
Company%20profile
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Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The six points:
1. Ministers should be in the field, instead of always at conferences
2. Foreign diplomacy must be left to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation
3. Emiratisation is a top priority that will have a renewed push behind it
4. The UAE's economy must continue to thrive and grow
5. Complaints from the public must be addressed, not avoided
6. Have hope for the future, what is yet to come is bigger and better than before
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
