In the end global equity markets finished last week positively, buoyed by a strong US employment report and by hopes that a hastily convened meeting between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might herald a rapprochement between the two countries, putting an end to fears of a nuclear confrontation. However, this was not the story of the whole week in which markets were rattled by the threat of a global trade war after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Taken together, the week’s events highlight the many faces of the Trump White House and the multiple risks and opportunities that may well arise from it over the rest of the year. Markets may well like the almost ‘goldilocks’ economic news, but the outcome of the North Korea summit is almost impossible to predict. The risk of a broader shift in trade policy towards protectionism is something that cannot be discounted and which could in turn threaten the continuation of steady economic growth, while also complicating the progress of any talks with North Korea.
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Read more from Tim Fox:
Why the Eibor is trading below the Libor
A healthy correction may not be the end result of the global market rout
Trump's politics is hurting the dollar
Markets can no longer ignore Fed's bullish rate rise rhetoric
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Although the impact of the measures announced - a 25 per cent global tariff on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminum imports - may not in themselves amount to much, especially after some notable exemptions are allowed, it will be the secondary, tertiary and mostly unintended consequences that will determine their true effect on the US economy and the rest of the world.
It might be tempting to dismiss the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs as a one-off that will not be repeated across other sectors, but the signs are already ominous that this will not be the case. The balance of personnel at the White House has tilted significantly towards protectionism in recent weeks, most notably with the departure of Gary Cohn as Mr Trump’s chief economic adviser, and with trade hawks such as commerce secretary Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro now in the ascendency. The US political calendar, with mid-term elections due in November, also makes trade an issue that is likely to be exploited for maximum political advantage in the coming months, with protectionist rhetoric having played a significant part in Mr Trump’s 2016 election win.
As the Financial Times pointed out on Friday, US steel tariffs are likely to be an 'opening shot in a bigger trade war with China', with investigations also underway in Washington over whether China is violating intellectual property rights. A final report about this will probably form the basis for the US placing tariffs on a wider array of Chinese goods, while the US Treasury is also preparing its annual report on foreign exchange manipulation that could also be used to target China. This could then turn trade tensions into an outright 'race to the bottom', with currency depreciation policies being added to an ever more disruptive cocktail of threats to the stability of the international financial system.
The reactions of other countries could also make an outright trade war a more protracted risk, and with it hasten the possibility of a return to a global recession. North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations, which are already progressing slowly, could easily break down.
The EU has already prepared counter measures on €2.8 billion (Dh3.44bn)of imports from the US, even as the EU is likely to make its case for special exemptions. Asian countries were already targeted with tariffs on washing machines and solar panels in January and are also likely to seek exemptions, but 11 have also signed a new Trans Pacific Partnership, after the US withdrew from the original one last year, a move that underlines a sense of growing alarm. Against this background, nuclear talks between the US and North Korea could also face serious complications if America's regional allies are not on board over trade issues. China for sure would be likely to retaliate, with its ultimate financial retaliation being the unloading of its holdings of US Treasuries, which could force US bond yields higher and risk undermining US economic growth. The GCC has specific exposure to the tariff's first-round effects through UAE aluminum exports, but increasing dependence on global trade maintains a vulnerability to wider second-round effects as well.
Far from being ‘easy to win’, a trade war is likely to prove very difficult to reverse in the context of an already challenging and complex global environment.
Tim Fox is group chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
Volunteers offer workers a lifeline
Community volunteers have swung into action delivering food packages and toiletries to the men.
When provisions are distributed, the men line up in long queues for packets of rice, flour, sugar, salt, pulses, milk, biscuits, shaving kits, soap and telecom cards.
Volunteers from St Mary’s Catholic Church said some workers came to the church to pray for their families and ask for assistance.
Boxes packed with essential food items were distributed to workers in the Dubai Investments Park and Ras Al Khaimah camps last week. Workers at the Sonapur camp asked for Dh1,600 towards their gas bill.
“Especially in this year of tolerance we consider ourselves privileged to be able to lend a helping hand to our needy brothers in the Actco camp," Father Lennie Connully, parish priest of St Mary’s.
Workers spoke of their helplessness, seeing children’s marriages cancelled because of lack of money going home. Others told of their misery of being unable to return home when a parent died.
“More than daily food, they are worried about not sending money home for their family,” said Kusum Dutta, a volunteer who works with the Indian consulate.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs: 2019 Mini Cooper
Price, base: Dh141,740 (three-door) / Dh165,900 (five-door)
Engine: 1.5-litre four-cylinder (Cooper) / 2.0-litre four-cylinder (Cooper S)
Power: 136hp @ 4,500rpm (Cooper) / 192hp @ 5,000rpm (Cooper S)
Torque: 220Nm @ 1,480rpm (Cooper) / 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (Cooper S)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 4.8L to 5.4L / 100km
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
