Risk sentiments have improved in the past few weeks with many markets, particularly equity markets, continuing to consolidate. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones index futures contract, set to expire on June 19, was trading at 24,000 levels, which is just off this month's highs of 24,323.
This represents a more than 32 per cent move higher from those 18,000 lows of a month ago. It was a similar picture for the S&P Index, which is now trading just below the 2900 handle, up more than 11 per cent on the month and 32 per cent higher than the March lows.
First quarter revenue is expected to be lower when compared to the fourth quarter of last year and keep an eye on the variance in the earnings per share, which are all expected to come in worse.
With a lot of the recent upward momentum derived from central bank easing measures, this week will be a key test of the equity markets. As we enter the first quarter earnings season, watch for a few key releases from tech heavyweights such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. Also set to announce are plane maker Boeing and oil and gas company Exxon.
First quarter revenue is expected to be lower when compared to the fourth quarter of last year and keep an eye on the variance in the earnings per share, which are all expected to come in worse. While the US went into lockdown towards the end of the first quarter, the results will no doubt paint a more accurate picture of the economic situation for corporations and should stall some of the recent rises seen in the major US stock indices.
This week also sees the release of the first quarter US gross domestic product data. Quarter-on-quarter growth during the first three months of the year is expected to contract by 4 per cent compared to a year ago. The decline should come as no surprise and there are expectations for a slower contraction in the US than China. The second largest economy showed a drop of 6.8 per cent in their first-quarter growth. Note, however, that the pandemic dominated more of China's first quarter than it did for the US, so expect this data to be another hindrance in the recent US stock market rally.
The other key release for US markets this week will be the US Federal Reserve's rate decision. Perhaps the most critical Federal Open Market Committee meeting in recent memory, markets will keenly wait for Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s comments. The Fed have remained rather tight-lipped since the outbreak, and while I don’t foresee any changes in overall rates, further easing measures could be on the table.
In March, I wrote that the US Dollar Index would consolidate at about 100 and that’s what it has done in April. Further easing measures from the Fed could see some short-term weakness for the dollar, but overall I see the index holding above 100 through the weeks ahead.
The European Central Bank is also announcing rates this week. ECB president Christine Lagarde has already said the eurozone economy could contract by as much as 15 per cent, so expect a bearish press conference on Thursday with more easing measures unveiled. April has not been favourable for euro long positions; the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) EUR/USD contract was trading at more than 2 per cent lower on the month. I continue to favour short positions in the euro and expect a move towards as low as $1.0632 before the end of the second quarter.
With the recent risk rally, gold has come off its seven-and-a-half year high, however, gold still remains the safest play along with the US dollar. On March 31, I gave a buy call in the precious metal with a target of $1,703 which was easily filled by April 13. I continue to like long positions in the commodity, and expect another run towards the channel between $1,735 and $1,750 in the next two weeks. Long-term support kicks in between $1,580 and $1,600 levels.
And finally, all eyes will move back to WTI, with the June contract set to expire on May 19. Last week, the May contract famously traded in negative territory – printing as low as minus $37 a barrel – because traders sold off the contract to avoid delivery as a result of storage strains.
With Cushing, Oklahama, the delivery point of the CME’s WTI contract already filled to 70 per cent of capacity, the storage strain will continue to rile crude-long positions leading up to delivery. The largest US crude exchange traded fund, the United States Oil Fund, dumped its June positions this week which has seen the June crude contract move towards $10 a barrel at the time of writing, down more than 64 per cent on the month. Expect further downsides as we move towards the middle of May, with a test of $5 a barrel very much on the cards.
Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at Equiti Global Markets. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
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Company%20Profile
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Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
Match info
Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20profile
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RIVER%20SPIRIT
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UAE v Ireland
1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets
2nd ODI, January 12
3rd ODI, January 14
4th ODI, January 16
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
UAE SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Khalid Essa, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Salem Rashid, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Mohammed Al Attas, Walid Abbas, Hassan Al Mahrami, Mahmoud Khamis, Alhassan Saleh, Ali Salmeen, Yahia Nader, Abdullah Ramadan, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Fabio De Lima, Khalil Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Muhammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani, Caio Canedo, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
