Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be

Fears mount that high inflation will feature in a post-Pandemic world


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Even a calamity of disease, death and economic destruction afflicting the world all at once isn’t enough to suppress the notion in some quarters that inflation could return with a vengeance.

The coronavirus crisis has killed hundreds of thousands, incapacitated millions and affected the livelihoods of billions – prompting policymakers to fear a deflation spiral reminiscent of the Great Depression. But economists including former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart, and investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management, are asking if a different phenomenon lurks in the wreckage of global growth.

In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them.

Such contrarians wonder if an environment of ultra-loose monetary and fiscal easing, commodity shortages, frayed supply chains and braking globalisation might be fertile ground for surging consumer prices. Reinforcing that shift, monetary authorities could face pressure to keep interest rates low, capping the cost of servicing ballooned government debt while allowing inflation to erode it too.

Even some traditionally deflation-wary thinkers have begun pondering that outcome. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard recently wrote that high inflation is “unlikely but not impossible", a sentiment echoed by former European Central Bank policymaker Peter Praet.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s a given that we’re going to be in a longer-term inflationary environment,” said Karen Ward, chief market strategist Emea at JP Morgan Asset Management. “But I wouldn’t say it’s going to be a negligible probability either.”

A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that. But such a prospect is far from their minds at present as they try to help economies facing eye-watering increases in unemployment. Almost half of the world’s workforce is in danger of losing livelihoods from the crisis, according to the International Labour Organisation.

“The deflationary shock is dominating, that’s absolutely clear,” Mr Praet said in an interview. “There’s a collapse of demand.”

Markets reflect that view, in tune with the oil slump and the prevailing perspective of weak prices sapped by adverse demographics, new technologies and globalisation. Inflation expectations, as proxied by five-year forward swap rates, are near record lows in the US and Europe. The UK 10-year break even rate is down nearly three quarters of a point below last year’s peak.

Some investors see things differently. BNP Paribas Asset Management, which oversees more than $450 billion (Dh1.7bn), has started building an overweight position in commodities for the first time in four years, while going underweight bonds. Ardea Investment Management, a Sydney-based hedge fund, said it “materially” added inflation exposure from late March after the collapse in market expectations of price growth.

“In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them,” said Gopi Karunakaran, a money manager at Ardea.

That narrative diverges from another argument over the years – for example from Germany’s Bundesbank – that underlying conditions in some economies have long supported a pickup in prices.

One strand emphasises the synchronised stimulus – with monetary easing supercharged by fiscal largesse – as opposed to the asymmetric response during the financial crisis, when central banks cut rates and started quantitative easing, but governments reined in budgets.

“What we are doing is creating a policy framework that has an inflation bias in it, which is the first time we’ve had that in generations,” said Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard in London and a former UK Treasury official. “The policy response is a wartime policy response.”

That conflict theme is one that Mr Goodhart agrees with. In a March 27 article with Manoj Pradhan, founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, he wrote that commodity costs will rebound with an economic recovery after lockdowns are lifted and stimulus takes effect. Inflation could exceed 5 per cent in 2021, and perhaps even reach 10 per cent – outcomes resembling the aftermaths of the First and Second World Wars.

“The monetary and fiscal expansion is aimed at, and will succeed at, putting money in the hands of people,” Mr Goodhart, a BOE rate setter from 1997 until 2000, said in an interview. “There will be some degree of pent-up demand.”

Goods disruptions caused by the virus, for example with Brazilian farmers unable to harvest coffee beans, might also linger. Colin Harte, a multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, warns that the supply side “could be more damaged than we realised".

The further consequences of a potential unwinding of globalisation, and a renewed focus on local production, builds on that narrative.

“In the latter stages of the recovery, amid continued deglobalisation in goods trade and less elastic global supply, fiscal policies may begin to stoke inflation,” Berenberg senior economist Kallum Pickering said.

Some economic data might already point to price pressures. US money supply is surging, and Tim Congdon, a long-time watcher of such data, anticipates it will see its largest increase in peacetime this year – followed by an “inflationary boom".

For some analysts however, the prospect of inflation is seriously remote in a world where unemployment is going through the roof.

“It is naive to think everyone is going to get their jobs back when this pandemic virus goes away,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “Massive job losses mean price declines for many goods are on the way.”

For Mr Goodhart’s thesis of “double-digit” inflation to unfold, Mr Perkins reckons authorities would need to succeed relatively quickly in limiting deaths and shoring up growth, which isn’t a given. He isn’t worried.

Mr Blanchard, in an April 24 article for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also sees a far greater probability of low inflation. But a combination of swelling public debt, a jump in real interest rates, and deliberately loose monetary policy to aid government financing, could produce a different outcome.

“It would be a dream scenario for politicians that at some point inflation goes up,” Mr Praet said. “It’s not impossible. But I think the structural consequences of this shock go well beyond the simple narrative of a normalisation, once we have a vaccine.”

Brief scores:

Liverpool 3

Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'

Manchester United 1

Lingard 33'

Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)

Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

Blonde
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAndrew%20Dominik%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAna%20de%20Armas%2C%20Adrien%20Brody%2C%20Bobby%20Cannavale%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
While you're here

Richard Jewell

Director: Clint Eastwood

Stars: Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Brandon Stanley

Two-and-a-half out of five stars 

Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

THE%20SWIMMERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESally%20El-Hosaini%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENathalie%20Issa%2C%20Manal%20Issa%2C%20Ahmed%20Malek%20and%20Ali%20Suliman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Total eligible population

About 57.5 million people
51.1 million received a jab
6.4 million have not

Where are the unvaccinated?

England 11%
Scotland 9%
Wales 10%
Northern Ireland 14% 

What is a calorie?

A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.

One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.

A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.

Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.

Alcohol contains about seven calories a gram. 

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

List of alleged parties

 May 15 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at
least 17 staff members

May 20 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'bring your own booze'
party

Nov 27 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff

Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary
Gavin Williamson

Dec 13 2020: PM and Carrie throw a flat party

Dec 14 2020: London mayor candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative
Party headquarters

Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz

Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party

RESULTS

5pm: Sweihan – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Shamakh, Fernando Jara (jockey), Jean-Claude Picout (trainer)

5.30pm: Al Shamkha – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Daad, Dane O’Neill, Jaber Bittar

6pm: Shakbout City – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Ghayyar, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Gold Silver, Sandro Paiva, Ibrahim Aseel

7pm: Masdar City – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Musannef, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

7.30pm: Khalifa City – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Ranchero, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

The specs

Engine: 2x201bhp AC Permanent-magnetic electric

Transmission: n/a

Power: 402bhp

Torque: 659Nm

Price estimate: Dh200,000

On sale: Q3 2022 

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors

Power: Combined output 920hp

Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
​​​​​​​Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km

What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

The specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo and dual electric motors

Power: 300hp at 6,000rpm

Torque: 520Nm at 1,500-3,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 8.0L/100km

Price: from Dh199,900

On sale: now

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE CLOWN OF GAZA

Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah 

Starring: Alaa Meqdad

Rating: 4/5

Pieces of Her

Stars: Toni Collette, Bella Heathcote, David Wenham, Omari Hardwick   

Director: Minkie Spiro

Rating:2/5

The candidates

Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive

Ali Azeem, business leader

Tony Booth, professor of education

Lord Browne, former BP chief executive

Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist

Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist

Dr Mark Mann, scientist

Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner

Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister

Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster

 

FIGHT CARD

 

1.           Featherweight 66kg

Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)

2.           Lightweight 70kg

Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)

3.           Welterweight 77kg

Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)

4.           Lightweight 70kg

Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)

5.           Featherweight 66kg

Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)

6.           Catchweight 85kg

Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)

7.           Featherweight 66kg

Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)

8.           Catchweight 73kg

Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)

9.           Featherweight 66kg

Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)

10.         Catchweight 90kg

Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)

How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE central contracts

Full time contracts

Rohan Mustafa, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Usman, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid

Part time contracts

Aryan Lakra, Ansh Tandon, Karthik Meiyappan, Rahul Bhatia, Alishan Sharafu, CP Rizwaan, Basil Hameed, Matiullah, Fahad Nawaz, Sanchit Sharma

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

ON%20TRACK
%3Cp%3EThe%20Dubai%20Metaverse%20Assembly%20will%20host%20three%20main%20tracks%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEducate%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Consists%20of%20more%20than%2010%20in-depth%20sessions%20on%20the%20metaverse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInspire%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Will%20showcase%20use%20cases%20of%20the%20metaverse%20in%20tourism%2C%20logistics%2C%20retail%2C%20education%20and%20health%20care%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EContribute%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Workshops%20for%20metaverse%20foresight%20and%20use-case%20reviews%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT

Arsenal 0 Chelsea 3
Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')

Expo details

Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia

The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.

It is expected to attract 25 million visits

Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.

More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020

The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area

It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECVT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E119bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E145Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh%2C89%2C900%20(%2424%2C230)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Easter%20Sunday
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Jay%20Chandrasekhar%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Jo%20Koy%2C%20Tia%20Carrere%2C%20Brandon%20Wardell%2C%20Lydia%20Gaston%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Teresa%20Ruiz%2C%20Omar%20Elba%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The bio

Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France

Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines

Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.

Favourite Author: My father for sure

Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst

RESULTS

Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari

THE SPECS

Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now

Company Fact Box

Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019

Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO

Based: Amman, Jordan

Sector: Education Technology

Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed

Stage: early-stage startup 

Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.