Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that, say analysts. EPA
Consumers buy items in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, where the government has announced a price control to three companies producing food to curb inflation. A limited dose of inflation might be

Fears mount that high inflation will feature in a post-Pandemic world


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Even a calamity of disease, death and economic destruction afflicting the world all at once isn’t enough to suppress the notion in some quarters that inflation could return with a vengeance.

The coronavirus crisis has killed hundreds of thousands, incapacitated millions and affected the livelihoods of billions – prompting policymakers to fear a deflation spiral reminiscent of the Great Depression. But economists including former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart, and investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management, are asking if a different phenomenon lurks in the wreckage of global growth.

In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them.

Such contrarians wonder if an environment of ultra-loose monetary and fiscal easing, commodity shortages, frayed supply chains and braking globalisation might be fertile ground for surging consumer prices. Reinforcing that shift, monetary authorities could face pressure to keep interest rates low, capping the cost of servicing ballooned government debt while allowing inflation to erode it too.

Even some traditionally deflation-wary thinkers have begun pondering that outcome. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard recently wrote that high inflation is “unlikely but not impossible", a sentiment echoed by former European Central Bank policymaker Peter Praet.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s a given that we’re going to be in a longer-term inflationary environment,” said Karen Ward, chief market strategist Emea at JP Morgan Asset Management. “But I wouldn’t say it’s going to be a negligible probability either.”

A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that. But such a prospect is far from their minds at present as they try to help economies facing eye-watering increases in unemployment. Almost half of the world’s workforce is in danger of losing livelihoods from the crisis, according to the International Labour Organisation.

“The deflationary shock is dominating, that’s absolutely clear,” Mr Praet said in an interview. “There’s a collapse of demand.”

Markets reflect that view, in tune with the oil slump and the prevailing perspective of weak prices sapped by adverse demographics, new technologies and globalisation. Inflation expectations, as proxied by five-year forward swap rates, are near record lows in the US and Europe. The UK 10-year break even rate is down nearly three quarters of a point below last year’s peak.

Some investors see things differently. BNP Paribas Asset Management, which oversees more than $450 billion (Dh1.7bn), has started building an overweight position in commodities for the first time in four years, while going underweight bonds. Ardea Investment Management, a Sydney-based hedge fund, said it “materially” added inflation exposure from late March after the collapse in market expectations of price growth.

“In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them,” said Gopi Karunakaran, a money manager at Ardea.

That narrative diverges from another argument over the years – for example from Germany’s Bundesbank – that underlying conditions in some economies have long supported a pickup in prices.

One strand emphasises the synchronised stimulus – with monetary easing supercharged by fiscal largesse – as opposed to the asymmetric response during the financial crisis, when central banks cut rates and started quantitative easing, but governments reined in budgets.

“What we are doing is creating a policy framework that has an inflation bias in it, which is the first time we’ve had that in generations,” said Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard in London and a former UK Treasury official. “The policy response is a wartime policy response.”

That conflict theme is one that Mr Goodhart agrees with. In a March 27 article with Manoj Pradhan, founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, he wrote that commodity costs will rebound with an economic recovery after lockdowns are lifted and stimulus takes effect. Inflation could exceed 5 per cent in 2021, and perhaps even reach 10 per cent – outcomes resembling the aftermaths of the First and Second World Wars.

“The monetary and fiscal expansion is aimed at, and will succeed at, putting money in the hands of people,” Mr Goodhart, a BOE rate setter from 1997 until 2000, said in an interview. “There will be some degree of pent-up demand.”

Goods disruptions caused by the virus, for example with Brazilian farmers unable to harvest coffee beans, might also linger. Colin Harte, a multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, warns that the supply side “could be more damaged than we realised".

The further consequences of a potential unwinding of globalisation, and a renewed focus on local production, builds on that narrative.

“In the latter stages of the recovery, amid continued deglobalisation in goods trade and less elastic global supply, fiscal policies may begin to stoke inflation,” Berenberg senior economist Kallum Pickering said.

Some economic data might already point to price pressures. US money supply is surging, and Tim Congdon, a long-time watcher of such data, anticipates it will see its largest increase in peacetime this year – followed by an “inflationary boom".

For some analysts however, the prospect of inflation is seriously remote in a world where unemployment is going through the roof.

“It is naive to think everyone is going to get their jobs back when this pandemic virus goes away,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “Massive job losses mean price declines for many goods are on the way.”

For Mr Goodhart’s thesis of “double-digit” inflation to unfold, Mr Perkins reckons authorities would need to succeed relatively quickly in limiting deaths and shoring up growth, which isn’t a given. He isn’t worried.

Mr Blanchard, in an April 24 article for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also sees a far greater probability of low inflation. But a combination of swelling public debt, a jump in real interest rates, and deliberately loose monetary policy to aid government financing, could produce a different outcome.

“It would be a dream scenario for politicians that at some point inflation goes up,” Mr Praet said. “It’s not impossible. But I think the structural consequences of this shock go well beyond the simple narrative of a normalisation, once we have a vaccine.”

Five expert hiking tips
    Always check the weather forecast before setting off Make sure you have plenty of water Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon Wear appropriate clothing and footwear Take your litter home with you
Day 5, Dubai Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Given the problems Sri Lanka have had in recent times, it was apt the winning catch was taken by Dinesh Chandimal. He is one of seven different captains Sri Lanka have had in just the past two years. He leads in understated fashion, but by example. His century in the first innings of this series set the shock win in motion.

Stat of the day This was the ninth Test Pakistan have lost in their past 11 matches, a run that started when they lost the final match of their three-Test series against West Indies in Sharjah last year. They have not drawn a match in almost two years and 19 matches, since they were held by England at the Zayed Cricket Stadium in Abu Dhabi in 2015.

The verdict Mickey Arthur basically acknowledged he had erred by basing Pakistan’s gameplan around three seam bowlers and asking for pitches with plenty of grass in Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. Why would Pakistan want to change the method that has treated them so well on these grounds in the past 10 years? It is unlikely Misbah-ul-Haq would have made the same mistake.

West Asia Premiership

Dubai Hurricanes 58-10 Dubai Knights Eagles

Dubai Tigers 5-39 Bahrain

Jebel Ali Dragons 16-56 Abu Dhabi Harlequins

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
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RESULTS

ATP China Open
G Dimitrov (BUL x3) bt R Bautista Agut (ESP x5)
7-6, 4-6, 6-2
R Nadal (ESP x1) bt J Isner (USA x6)
6-4, 7-6

WTA China Open
S Halep (ROU x2) bt D Kasatkina (RUS)
6-2, 6-1
J Ostapenko (LAT x9) bt S Cirstea (ROU)
6-4, 6-4

ATP Japan Open
D Schwartzman (ARG x8) bt S Johnson (USA)
6-0, 7-5
D Goffin (BEL x4) bt R Gasquet (FRA)
7-5, 6-2
M Cilic (CRO x1) bt R Harrison (USA)
6-2, 6-0

Section 375

Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat

Director: Ajay Bahl

Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL

Rating: 3.5/5

The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet

Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465

Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder

Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm

Transmission: Nine-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km

THE LOWDOWN

Romeo Akbar Walter

Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher 

What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

THE SPECS

Jaguar F-Pace SVR

Engine: 5-litre supercharged V8​​​​​​​

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Power: 542bhp​​​​​​​

Torque: 680Nm​​​​​​​

Price: Dh465,071

Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack

Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ruwais timeline

1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established

1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants

1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed

1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.  

1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex

2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea

2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd

2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens

2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies

2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export

2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.

2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery 

2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital

2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13

Source: The National

%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EGlobal%20Islamic%20economy%20to%20grow%203.1%25%20to%20touch%20%242.4%20trillion%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fuk-economy-plunges-into-worst-ever-recession-after-record-20-4-contraction-1.1062560%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EUK%20economy%20plunges%20into%20worst-ever%20recession%20after%20record%2020.4%25%20contraction%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EIslamic%20economy%20consumer%20spending%20to%20increase%2045%25%20to%20%243.2tn%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FINAL LEADERBOARD

1. Jordan Spieth (USA) 65 69 65 69 - 12-under-par
2. Matt Kuchar (USA) 65 71 66 69 - 9-under
3. Li Haotong (CHN) 69 73 69 63 - 6-under
T4. Rory McIlroy (NIR) 71 68 69 67 - 5-under
T4. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP) 67 73 67 68 - 5-under
T6. Marc Leishman (AUS) 69 76 66 65 - 4-under
T6. Matthew Southgate (ENG) 72 72 67 65 - 4-under
T6. Brooks Koepka (USA) 65 72 68 71 - 4-under
T6. Branden Grace (RSA) 70 74 62 70 - 4-under
T6. Alexander Noren (SWE)  68 72 69 67 - 4-under

The specs: 2019 Haval H6

Price, base: Dh69,900

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km

Kamindu Mendis bio

Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis

Born: September 30, 1998

Age: 20 years and 26 days

Nationality: Sri Lankan

Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team

Batting style: Left-hander

Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees

Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

Rating: 4/5

The Birkin bag is made by Hermès. 
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.

Profile of Whizkey

Date founded: 04 November 2017

Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani

Based: Dubai, UAE

Number of employees: 10

Sector: AI, software

Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million  

Funding stage: Series A

Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
Day 2, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Dinesh Chandimal has inherited a challenging job, after being made Sri Lanka’s Test captain. He responded in perfect fashion, with an easy-natured century against Pakistan. He brought up three figures with a majestic cover drive, which he just stood and admired.

Stat of the day – 33 It took 33 balls for Dilruwan Perera to get off the mark. His time on zero was eventful enough. The Sri Lankan No 7 was given out LBW twice, but managed to have both decisions overturned on review. The TV replays showed both times that he had inside edged the ball onto his pad.

The verdict In the two previous times these two sides have met in Abu Dhabi, the Tests have been drawn. The docile nature of proceedings so far makes that the likely outcome again this time, but both sides will be harbouring thoughts that they can force their way into a winning position.

MATCH INFO

What: Brazil v South Korea
When: Tonight, 5.30pm
Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae

UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGold%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMagomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20%2B100kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhaled%20Al%20Shehi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EFaisal%20Al%20Ketbi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAsma%20Al%20Hosani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamma%20Al%20Kalbani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-63kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESilver%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EOmar%20Al%20Marzooqi%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EBishrelt%20Khorloodoi%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhalid%20Al%20Blooshi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamed%20Al%20Suwaidi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-69kg%0D%3Cbr%3EBalqees%20Abdulla%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-48kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBronze%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHawraa%20Alajmi%20%E2%80%93%20Karate%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20kumite%20-50kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAhmed%20Al%20Mansoori%20%E2%80%93%20Cycling%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20omnium%0D%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Al%20Marri%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3ETeam%20UAE%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EDzhafar%20Kostoev%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-100kg%0D%3Cbr%3ENarmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-66kg%0D%3Cbr%3EGrigorian%20Aram%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-90kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMahdi%20Al%20Awlaqi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-77kg%0D%3Cbr%3ESaeed%20Al%20Kubaisi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamsa%20Al%20Ameri%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-57kg%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
​​​​​​​Penguin Press