On a recent business meeting in Monaco, Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer at Emirates NBD (ENBD), spoke to a room full of affluent investors about his predictions for the great yellow metal - gold.
With the world economy gloomy and uncertain, he was bullish on this precious commodity, to say the least. In fact, he firmly believes that it will reach US$1,500 an ounce (Dh5,509) in the next three to six months, and $1,600 in the next year.
By the end of his speech, Mr Dugan says one investor scratched his head, rose from his chair and immediately made arrangements to purchase 40 kilograms of gold. But rather than keep it in the bank or a vault on the Cayman Islands, he had it shipped right to his front door.
According to Mr Dugan, he didn't trust anyone with his sparkling nest egg.
"The fear factor is likely to stay with us for some time," he says. "Gold is the currency of today because the world doesn't necessarily believe in the dollar anymore. People don't believe in the euro, and in the East, the currencies are too underdeveloped on an international scale.
"This is not a golden week. It's not a golden couple of months. This is indeed a golden era."
This bold declaration was the overriding message at a conference in Dubai last week, when ENBD formally launched its Gold Business.
The initiative, spurred on by the metal's remarkable rise to $1,386.23 over the past year, features the region's first gold certificate, which allows retail and business customers to buy physical gold over the counter at any of the bank's 110 branches. Clients must undergo a credit assessment before buying and, after the purchase, the bullion is stored and kept secure on location at ENBD. The gold is available in denominations of 0.5kg and the bank says it will accommodate up to 50kg of gold purchases daily. Customers can redeem their investment at any time, with a maximum maturity date of 60 months.
While the scheme might be new to the UAE, the concept is well established in other places around the world. The Perth Mint, for example, first founded as a branch of Britain's Royal Mint in 1899 in Western Australia, offers a variety of gold-related products, including gold bars and coins, which it keeps secure at its facility.
The World Gold Council, created to promote the precious metal, launched SPDR Gold Shares in November 2004. This exchange-traded fund, known by the tracker symbol GLD, is now the world's fastest-growing major invesmtment fund, according to the US research company Lipper Inc.
The fund is also the largest private owner of bullion, acquiring about $30 million worth of gold each day, and is currently worth an estimated $56.7 billion.
But according to ENBD, the Middle East region is poised to take the lead in this thriving trade.
"Over 25 per cent of the annual global gold production is transacted through UAE markets and we have developed the Gold Business to serve the needs of our existing and prospective customers," says Asif Lakhany, the head of international and new ventures at ENBD.
"Over time, we will look to extend this expertise across other precious metals and commodities."
With a "competitive" profit margin for the bank, Mr Lakhany adds, clients who buy gold with the financial institution will spend between 2 per cent and 5 per cent less than on the open market. He says the gold certificate programme could serve as a valuable test drive for an even greater foray into the commodities market. Depending on the success of the Gold Business, ENBD says it is considering a similar scheme for silver and oil.
Mr Dugan says the trend towards investment in gold and other commodities is a reflection of a volatile world economy. In other words, people want tangible assets for their money.
"I think we're definitely moving in that direction," he says. "The average investor doesn't have confidence in a piece of paper for a stock or bond."
Of course, at the same time, Mr Dugan doesn't advise investors to sell the farm in favour of gold bars. In an ideal portfolio, it should comprise only about 20 per cent, serving as a reliable and effective hedge against eventualities.
Mr Dugan says there are many other compelling factors that continue to drive up the price of gold. The rise of emerging economies, such as India and China, is also fuelling a sharp demand for commodities.
Referring to a chart showing the Top 10 holders of gold in the world, based on data from the IMF and World Gold Council, he notes that the US has 8,134 tonnes of the precious metal in reserve, while Germany comes in at a distant second with 3,403 tonnes. But the statistics that particularly interest Mr Dugan are those concerning China. This sleeping giant currently holds just 1,054 tonnes of gold - a number, he says, that is sure to explode in the coming years.
China's surge in gold could drive the price of the yellow metal to dizzying heights, he says.
But as more countries, banks and everyday consumers jump on the golden bandwagon, is a crash just around the corner? That's the question that concerns most investors these days.
Peter Cooper, the author of Dubai Sabbatical:The Road to $5,000 Gold and Opportunity Dubai, and founder of Arabianmoney.net, continues to be bullish on gold. However, he warns of short-term volatility in the near future.
"I would be very cautious about putting too much money into gold at this stage, but over time, it's definitely a good investment," he says.
Mr Cooper points to the recent rise in silver as a possible turn in the tide, which often moves in tandem with its more coveted cousin.
"When you get considerable spikes, they tend to burn out eventually," he says.
"It's like a rocket going up, but all of a sudden it falls back down when it's out of fuel, or there are no more buyers."
He says gold will continue its meteoric rise as we enter the New Year, with a hiccup in price in February or March. He believes that the yellow metal could dip back to about $1,000 sometime next year, although it probably won't stay there for long.
Mr Dugan acknowledges that there could be a correction in the price of gold. But in his mind, the only way is up.
"There is always a risk," he says. "But I cannot believe that the general population will think everything is fine. If you look at the world, you can't reverse what is happening. There could be a correction, but a crash I just don't see happening."
