European Central Bank officials are starting to discuss priming investors for the euro area’s first interest-rate increase since 2011, a conversation that could see them putting the US experience of three years ago under the microscope.
With the Governing Council indicating borrowing costs will stay at record lows “at least through the summer of 2019,” two of President Mario Draghi’s lieutenants are already talking about what happens after that. Executive Board members Benoit Coeure and Peter Praet want to communicate more on the pace of increases to avoid stirring up markets.
Concerns over the impact of tighter policy are likely heightened by the memory of the two increases in 2011 being swiftly undone as the euro zone tipped into recession. Officials insist the economy is now strong enough to face global risks from trade protectionism to Brexit, but also regularly cite market volatility as a risk. That makes a so-called dovish hike an attractive goal.
“What they are trying to communicate to investors is that the lift-off is going to be slow,” says Nick Kounis, head of macro and financial markets research at ABN Amro Bank in Amsterdam. “The ECB has learned its communication lesson from the Federal Reserve, and they want to make sure well ahead of time that markets are clear on their thinking.”
Policy makers are not all on the same page though. Governing council member Ewald Nowotny, Austria’s central-bank chief, said on Sunday that officials should “ask if it’s really sensible” to lock in record-low rates for so long. Mr Draghi may be quizzed on his view when he testifies to the European Parliament next week.
_________
Read more:
Central Banks strike back against meddling
No-deal Brexit means interest rate rises, says Bank of England chief
Are these the warning signs of an approaching global recession?
Nine lessons from the global financial crisis
__________
The Fed was widely lauded when it raised rates in December 2015 under then-chair Janet Yellen,. After a rocky start in May 2013, when she was vice chair and her boss, Ben Bernanke, spooked investors by unexpectedly suggesting asset purchases might be tapered, the central bank successfully reached lift-off with barely a murmur of discontent in the markets.
The strategy was a series of incremental language changes, ranging from subtle to blatant, that signalled a rate hike was getting closer. As asset purchases ended in October 2014, the Fed said rates would stay near zero for a “considerable time.” That was dropped in January 2015 as the economy improved, though policy makers cautioned they’d remain “patient.”
In March, they pinned a hike on “further improvement in the labour market.” By July, a tweak to say the Fed awaited “some” further improvement in the labour market was a one-word addition that inched them toward liftoff. Officials finally teed up the decision in their October statement with an unusual reference to their “next meeting.”
Mr Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, told an audience in New York last week that communication on how to adapt policy beyond the first rate hike will become “increasingly important” next year.
Mr Coeure, who is in charge of market operations and is a potential successor to Mr Draghi in November 2019, said in Berlin that he would prefer to outline the economic conditions that justify higher borrowing costs.
He rejected publishing an expected path of interest rates, as Sweden’s Riksbank does. The Fed uses a so-called dot-plot chart compiling anonymous predictions by policy makers for how fast they expect rates to rise.
The Norwegian central bank showed last week how the pace of monetary tightening can matter more for markets than the actual timing of the first move. The krone dropped after governor Oystein Olsen raised rates for the first time in seven years and lowered his projection for how fast they’ll climb in the years ahead.
The Bank of England, which in August raised its benchmark rate to the highest since the financial crisis, takes a milder approach, coloured by the uncertainties surrounding the UK’s departure from the European Union. It says future increases in the key rate will be “at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.”
The process never stops. The Fed is currently wrestling with the question of where to end tightening, and chairman Jerome Powell is considering how to change communication.
“If the ECB wants to be in control, the sooner they start talking about their plans the better,” says Anatoli Annenkov, senior economist at Societe Generale in London. “There are sufficient reasons to believe that at times the communication is quite difficult and markets may not believe you.”
* Bloomberg
The biog
Born: High Wycombe, England
Favourite vehicle: One with solid axels
Favourite camping spot: Anywhere I can get to.
Favourite road trip: My first trip to Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan. The desert they have over there is different and the language made it a bit more challenging.
Favourite spot in the UAE: Al Dhafra. It’s unique, natural, inaccessible, unspoilt.
The Saudi Cup race card
1 The Jockey Club Local Handicap (TB) 1,800m (Dirt) $500,000
2 The Riyadh Dirt Sprint (TB) 1,200m (D) $1.500,000
3 The 1351 Turf Sprint 1,351m (Turf) $1,000,000
4 The Saudi Derby (TB) 1600m (D) $800,000
5 The Neom Turf Cup (TB) 2,100m (T) $1,000,000
6 The Obaiya Arabian Classic (PB) 2,000m (D) $1,900,000
7 The Red Sea Turf Handicap (TB) 3,000m (T) $2,500,000
8 The Saudi Cup (TB) 1,800m (D) $20,000,000
Match info
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Liverpool v Porto, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
UAE WARRIORS RESULTS
Featherweight
Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)
TKO round 2
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Split points decision
Welterweight
Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)
TKO round 1
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Unanimous points decision
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
TKO round 1
Catchweight 100kg
Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)
Rear neck choke round 1
Featherweight
James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)
TKO round 2
Welterweight
Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Unanimous points decision
Bantamweight
Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Unanimous points decision
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)
TKO round 1
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)
TKO round 3
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Submission round 2
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TKO round 2
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
Fighter profiles
Gabrieli Pessanha (Brazil)
Reigning Abu Dhabi World Pro champion in the 95kg division, virtually unbeatable in her weight class. Known for her pressure game but also dangerous with her back on the mat.
Nathiely de Jesus, 23, (Brazil)
Two-time World Pro champion renowned for her aggressive game. She is tall and most feared by her opponents for both her triangles and arm-bar attacks.
Thamara Ferreira, 24, (Brazil)
Since her brown belt days, Ferreira has been dominating the 70kg, in both the World Pro and the Grand Slams. With a very aggressive game.
Samantha Cook, 32, (Britain)
One of the biggest talents coming out of Europe in recent times. She is known for a highly technical game and bringing her A game to the table as always.
Kendall Reusing, 22, (USA)
Another young gun ready to explode in the big leagues. The Californian resident is a powerhouse in the -95kg division. Her duels with Pessanha have been highlights in the Grand Slams.
Martina Gramenius, 32, (Sweden)
Already a two-time Grand Slam champion in the current season. Gramenius won golds in the 70kg, in both in Moscow and Tokyo, to earn a spot in the inaugural Queen of Mats.
Manchester United v Club America
When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
The Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize
This year’s winners of the US$4 million Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize will be recognised and rewarded in Abu Dhabi on January 15 as part of Abu Dhabi Sustainable Week, which runs in the capital from January 13 to 20.
From solutions to life-changing technologies, the aim is to discover innovative breakthroughs to create a new and sustainable energy future.
Sanchez's club career
2005-2006: Cobreloa
2006-2011 Udinese
2006-2007 Colo-Colo (on loan)
2007-2008 River Plate (on loan)
2011-2014 Barcelona
2014–Present Arsenal
Vaccine Progress in the Middle East
Results
Catchweight 60kg: Mohammed Al Katheeri (UAE) beat Mostafa El Hamy (EGY) TKO round 3
Light Heavyweight: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) no contest Kevin Oumar (COM) Unintentional knee by Oumer
Catchweight 73kg: Yazid Chouchane (ALG) beat Ahmad Al Boussairy (KUW) Unanimous decision
Featherweight: Faris Khaleel Asha (JOR) beat Yousef Al Housani (UAE) TKO in round 2 through foot injury
Welterweight: Omar Hussein (JOR) beat Yassin Najid (MAR); Split decision
Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Sallah Eddine Dekhissi (MAR); Round-1 TKO
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali Musalim (UAE) beat Medhat Hussein (EGY); Triangle choke submission
Welterweight: Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) beat Sofiane Oudina (ALG); Triangle choke Round-1
Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Saleem Al Bakri (JOR); Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ali Taleb (IRQ) beat Nawras Abzakh (JOR); TKO round-2
Catchweight 63kg: Rany Saadeh (PAL) beat Abdel Ali Hariri (MAR); Unanimous decision
Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Tim Paine (captain), Sean Abbott, Pat Cummins, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Will Pucovski, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade, David Warner
RESULTS
Manchester United 2
Anthony Martial 30'
Scott McTominay 90 6'
Manchester City 0
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight (Wednesday), BeIN Sports
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Baniyas Group 2 (PA) Dh 97,500 (Dirt) 1,400m.
7.05pm Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,400m
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,400m
8.50pm Rated Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh 95,000 (D) 1,200m
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh 85,000 (D) 2,000m
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Ajax v Real Madrid, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Places to go for free coffee
- Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day.
- La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
- Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
- Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
What is a calorie?
A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.
One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.
A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.
Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.
Alcohol contains about seven calories a gram.
Apple product price list
iPad Pro
11" - $799 (64GB)
12.9" - $999 (64GB)
MacBook Air
$1,199
Mac Mini
$799
PAST 10 BRITISH GRAND PRIX WINNERS
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2015 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2013 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)
2012 - Mark Webber (Red Bull Racing)
2011 - Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2010 - Mark Webber (Red Bull Racing)
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2008 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2007 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
Who are the Sacklers?
The Sackler family is a transatlantic dynasty that owns Purdue Pharma, which manufactures and markets OxyContin, one of the drugs at the centre of America's opioids crisis. The family is well known for their generous philanthropy towards the world's top cultural institutions, including Guggenheim Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, Tate in Britain, Yale University and the Serpentine Gallery, to name a few. Two branches of the family control Purdue Pharma.
Isaac Sackler and Sophie Greenberg were Jewish immigrants who arrived in New York before the First World War. They had three sons. The first, Arthur, died before OxyContin was invented. The second, Mortimer, who died aged 93 in 2010, was a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma. The third, Raymond, died aged 97 in 2017 and was also a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma.
It was Arthur, a psychiatrist and pharmaceutical marketeer, who started the family business dynasty. He and his brothers bought a small company called Purdue Frederick; among their first products were laxatives and prescription earwax remover.
Arthur's branch of the family has not been involved in Purdue for many years and his daughter, Elizabeth, has spoken out against it, saying the company's role in America's drugs crisis is "morally abhorrent".
The lawsuits that were brought by the attorneys general of New York and Massachussetts named eight Sacklers. This includes Kathe, Mortimer, Richard, Jonathan and Ilene Sackler Lefcourt, who are all the children of either Mortimer or Raymond. Then there's Theresa Sackler, who is Mortimer senior's widow; Beverly, Raymond's widow; and David Sackler, Raymond's grandson.
Members of the Sackler family are rarely seen in public.
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
www.greenheartuae.com
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
www.modibodi.ae
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
www.shopretold.com
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
www.mena.lush.com
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
www.bubble-bro.com
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
www.instagram.com/coethical
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
www.eggsnsoldiers.com
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
MATCH INFO
Rajasthan Royals 158-8 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 143/7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals won by 15 runs
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
Landfill in numbers
• Landfill gas is composed of 50 per cent methane
• Methane is 28 times more harmful than Co2 in terms of global warming
• 11 million total tonnes of waste are being generated annually in Abu Dhabi
• 18,000 tonnes per year of hazardous and medical waste is produced in Abu Dhabi emirate per year
• 20,000 litres of cooking oil produced in Abu Dhabi’s cafeterias and restaurants every day is thrown away
• 50 per cent of Abu Dhabi’s waste is from construction and demolition
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
Wednesday's results
Finland 3-0 Armenia
Faroes Islands 1-0 Malta
Sweden 1-1 Spain
Gibraltar 2-3 Georgia
Romania 1-1 Norway
Greece 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Liechtenstein 0-5 Italy
Switzerland 2-0 Rep of Ireland
Israel 3-1 Latvia
