The US dollar recorded one of its strongest weeks since early May. The Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar against a weighted basket of major currencies, gained 1.69 per cent for the week ending September 25.
As I wrote in my last article on September 9, I expected markets to correct in favour of the US dollar. EUR/USD fully achieved (and broke through) my target of 1.1720 last week, while GBP/USD also comprehensively broke through my first target of 1.30 and now finds itself currently consolidating in the mid-1.28 range.
The dollar's recent appreciation is by no means a change in trend, and should be seen more as a correction. The greenback is primed for monthly gains for the first time in five months – since May, the Dollar Index has closed four consecutive months lower, a period in which it has shed 6.92 per cent.
One thing that should boost markets further and cause erosion to the US dollar will be the long-discussed proposal for the US government's Covid-19 relief
I expect the correction in favour of the US dollar to stretch through the last few days of September, which also marks the end of the third quarter. As asset managers and corporations re-balance their portfolios, the dollar will catch a bid.
Looking ahead to October and the picture becomes a little trickier. Several of the themes raised in my last article remain key considerations – global central bank policy will continue to be scrutinised, along with the sensitivity to emerging pockets of new Covid-19 cases around the globe.
In addition to these existing themes, we are fast approaching one of the most important US presidential elections in recent memory. Margins are very thin – polls show Joe Biden still has a slight advantage but this can change very quickly.
One thing that should boost markets further and cause erosion to the US dollar will be the long-discussed proposal for the US government’s Covid-19 relief. Bi-partisan negotiations have seen this plan drag out for several weeks – but a new scaled back $2.2 trillion Democrat plan is in discussion. Any cross-the-aisle synergy will undoubtedly rally markets.
The Federal Reserve has urged the government to do its part from a fiscal perspective, and this could be a key theme in the presidential debates and US Congress in the lead-up to the November 3 elections.
Looking ahead, we have a busy economic calendar for the rest of the week, which will give traders further clues about growth recovery. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was released early this morning and will be followed by data on UK gross domestic product and US GDP later in the day. Expectations are for unchanged quarter-on-quarter growth in the US, likely to show a contraction of 31.7 per cent. Thursday sees the release of euro area and German manufacturing PMIs, followed by US PMI readings.
We end the week with the crucial US non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which will be the final employment report before November’s election. Expectations are for payrolls to rise to 850,000 for September, but still lower than August’s 1.37 million. Next week sees the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes on October 7 and crucial industrial and manufacturing production figures from the UK on October 9.
Overall, I would exercise caution through the start of October – with the dollar on the front foot in September, things could change quickly. Worsening data prints should weaken their respective currencies, and I will continue to monitor US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield. Averaging around 0.65 per cent over the past several months, any strength in yields going forward will translate to US dollar strength and vice versa.
I believe the dollar holds below the channel of 94.75/95, while downsides should be capped at 93.75. Considering this, for the next two weeks, I expect gold to range between $1,850 (which represents a safe, long entry level) and $1,940 levels on the upside. During this period, EUR/USD looks good to make a strong test of 1.16.
Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at Equiti Global Markets. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti
The years Ramadan fell in May
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
BLACK%20ADAM
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jaume%20Collet-Serra%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dwayne%20Johnson%2C%20Sarah%20Shahi%2C%20Viola%20Davis%2C%20Pierce%20Brosnan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
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%3Cp%3EFly%20with%20Etihad%20Airways%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20New%20York%E2%80%99s%20JFK.%20There's%2011%20flights%20a%20week%20and%20economy%20fares%20start%20at%20around%20Dh5%2C000.%3Cbr%3EStay%20at%20The%20Mark%20Hotel%20on%20the%20city%E2%80%99s%20Upper%20East%20Side.%20Overnight%20stays%20start%20from%20%241395%20per%20night.%3Cbr%3EVisit%20NYC%20Go%2C%20the%20official%20destination%20resource%20for%20New%20York%20City%20for%20all%20the%20latest%20events%2C%20activites%20and%20openings.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
CRICKET%20WORLD%20CUP%20QUALIFIER%2C%20ZIMBABWE%20
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EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayvn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Flinos%2C%20Ahmed%20Ismail%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efinancial%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2044%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseries%20B%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHilbert%20Capital%2C%20Red%20Acre%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
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MATCH INFO
Hoffenheim v Liverpool
Uefa Champions League play-off, first leg
Location: Rhein-Neckar-Arena, Sinsheim
Kick-off: Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Teams in the EHL
White Bears, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai Mighty Camels, Abu Dhabi Storms, Abu Dhabi Scorpions and Vipers
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
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The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
