China dominated the headlines last week, with a sequence of strong stock market gains only halting slightly at the end of it. Bullishness on the part of Chinese retail investors was attributed to positive comments in the state media about the prospects for equity markets, before the government rowed back its message on Friday, causing the Shanghai composite index to slip back a little. However, that followed gains worth 16 per cent over the previous eight sessions, their longest rally in more than two years.
This strength came against a backdrop of improving Chinese economic data, apparent in the Purchasing Managers Indices where the official manufacturing index rose to 50.9 in June from 50.6 in May while the non-manufacturing index increased to 54.4 from 53.6, taking the composite reading to 54.2, the highest reading since May 2018.
Its gains were also accompanied by firmness in the yuan, with the USDCNY exchange rate falling below the psychological 7.0 level, above which it has spent much of the coronavirus crisis.
However, it also drew comparisons with the bubble of 2015, as margin loans rose to their highest levels in five years, which ended with a subsequent market collapse.
Many longer term structural problems facing the Chinese economy remain, such as the surge in debt-GDP, and likely changes to global supply chains may present new long-term challenges. Also seemingly overlooked by markets were the numerous headlines regarding China’s souring relations with much of the world over coronavirus, and also over the backlash against the security law for Hong Kong.
Global markets were nothing like as positive, however, with the S&P, the FTSE and the DAX continuing to pause. Rising US-China tensions in particular were a source of concern, with Beijing saying it will retaliate against US sanctions. US President Donald Trump meanwhile cast doubt on the likelihood of reaching a phase two trade agreement with China, saying that the relationship with China has been "severely damaged".
Many longer term structural problems facing the Chinese economy remain, such as the surge in debt-GDP, and likely changes to global supply chains may present new long-term challenges
A rising number of coronavirus cases around the world were also responsible for heightened risk aversion, with Hong Kong seeing a second wave of infections, forcing it to close schools from this week. Japan and Australia also saw more cases, while in the United States a number of states recorded their largest single day increases in Covid-19 deaths, giving rise to fears that lockdowns there could be reinstated.
Separately during the week, the US Supreme Court's ruling that a New York City grand jury could have access to president Donald Trump's tax returns and other financial documents had already caused a fresh wave of safe haven flows, demonstrating increased sensitivity to political developments as the November election draws nearer.
The cancellation of election rallies and the commutation of prominent Trump ally Roger Stone’s prison sentence over the weekend also signal the likelihood of a highly unusual election race, with the coming months likely to see often unpredictable political headlines impacting sentiment.
Gold prices rose above $1800 during the week for the first time since 2011, taking its rally to 25 per cent over the past year. As well as benefiting from the persistent uncertainties about the economic outlook, the demand for it also partly reflects concerns that the scale of central bank monetary stimulus may at some point cause a sharp rise in inflation.
Other markets do not appear as concerned by inflation however, with US bond yields falling to their lowest levels since the lockdowns began being relaxed, with 10-year yields dropping below 0.6 per cent at one point while 5-year yields reached a record low of 0.26 per cent.
The dollar was little changed overall, alternating on the ebb and flow of risk sentiment, with only the Japanese yen posting consistent gains, reflecting its wider safe haven appeal.
The International Energy Agency meanwhile warned that the new flare-up of coronavirus cases could weaken the demand for oil even as the price appears steady around the $40 per barrel level.
That the markets were able to claw back some gains at the week’s close was because of more positive news about a possible Covid-19 vaccine, a reminder that for all the uncertainty and concerns in the world, it is still the only issue that really counts.
Tim Fox is a prominent regional economist and financial market analyst
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Read more about the coronavirus
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30, December 1-2
International Vets
Christina Noble Children’s Foundation fixtures
Thursday, November 30:
10.20am, Pitch 3, v 100 World Legends Project
1.20pm, Pitch 4, v Malta Marauders
Friday, December 1:
9am, Pitch 4, v SBA Pirates
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
RESULT
Argentina 0 Croatia 3
Croatia: Rebic (53'), Modric (80'), Rakitic (90' 1)
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
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LOS ANGELES GALAXY 2 MANCHESTER UNITED 5
Galaxy: Dos Santos (79', 88')
United: Rashford (2', 20'), Fellaini (26'), Mkhitaryan (67'), Martial (72')
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
THE NEW BATCH'S FOCUS SECTORS
AiFlux – renewables, oil and gas
DevisionX – manufacturing
Event Gates – security and manufacturing
Farmdar – agriculture
Farmin – smart cities
Greener Crop – agriculture
Ipera.ai – space digitisation
Lune Technologies – fibre-optics
Monak – delivery
NutzenTech – environment
Nybl – machine learning
Occicor – shelf management
Olymon Solutions – smart automation
Pivony – user-generated data
PowerDev – energy big data
Sav – finance
Searover – renewables
Swftbox – delivery
Trade Capital Partners – FinTech
Valorafutbol – sports and entertainment
Workfam – employee engagement
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Profile of Bitex UAE
Date of launch: November 2018
Founder: Monark Modi
Based: Business Bay, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: Eight employees
Investors: Self-funded to date with $1m of personal savings
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
The five pillars of Islam
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
