Bonds in Emerging Asia have potential



At Barclays Wealth, we believe that local-currency government debt is an attractive way to capitalise on the improving sovereign credit outlook and robust growth potential of what we call the Emerging Asia countries. Prospective returns are supported by generally higher bond yields than in more developed countries and expected currency gains through the region.

Therefore, we suggest buying medium-term emerging-Asia government bonds, in local currencies, directly and with your currency risks unhedged. Emerging Asia, which we define as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, was resilient during the recent crisis, leading the global economic recovery in both the timing and magnitude of its rebound. The region's growth was also robust prior to the crisis, expanding at a much faster pace than its "developed" peers.

In the coming years, demographics, among many other factors, are expected to support this positive growth differential. The region entered the most recent economic emergency in a position of strength, as the countries' respective governments have extensively improved their macroeconomic policies since the economic crisis of 1997-98. Our research shows that Emerging Asia sits on surplus funds, debt ratios are falling and foreign reserves are high - indeed, all of these indicators compare favourably with more advanced economies.

Reflecting the improved credit-worthiness of Emerging Asia governments, sovereign rating actions were positive last year and spreads have narrowed considerably from their peak. Given the solid and improving outlook, positive rating actions are likely to continue, which should drive spreads lower. Further tightening will also be dependent on supportive technical factors. For example, historical data show that government bond markets in the region have matured considerably, boasting extended term structures and improved liquidity.

In an environment in which US, Japanese and European yields are extremely low, Emerging Asia credits - government bonds included - are likely to benefit from incremental asset allocation. Hence, foreign capital inflows to the region have risen and should continue to do so. We consider local currency government bonds to be the most attractive way to take advantage of the improving sovereign credit outlook in Emerging Asia.

These bonds closely reflect domestic macroeconomic policies where returns are supported by potential currency gains and high carry. From an asset allocation perspective, local currency emerging market bonds also offer diversification. Although the move towards new policy standards should help Emerging Asia currencies when interest rates eventually rise, rate normalisation poses a risk to the market value of longer-dated bonds. We prefer shorter-dated bonds, specifically those maturing in the medium term. We also recommend buying such local currency government bonds directly and with the currency risks unhedged. In cases where access to local government bond markets is restricted for certain investors, bond funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be a good "second best" implementation. Within Emerging Asia, Indonesian government bonds currently offer the highest yield to maturity, and we believe this additional yield provides more than adequate compensation for the additional credit risk of buying the nation's debt. The country has achieved political stability after the elections in 2009 and the central bank has gained further credibility. The country's banking system is sound and many economic indicators such as fiscal and debt dynamics are improving. For these reasons, we deem that Indonesia is making good progress towards achieving investment-grade status - Indonesia is currently rated two notches below investment grade by Moody's and S&P, and is only an upgrade away from investment grade on Fitch's rating metrics. Emerging Asia has been resilient in the recent crisis, leading the global recovery in both timing and magnitude. Sovereign rating actions were positive last year and spreads over US Treasuries have narrowed considerably from their peak, reflecting the improved credit-worthiness of these countries and local-currency government bonds seem to be the most attractive way to take advantage of improving credit outlook. Khurram Jafree is the head of MENA investment advisory for Barclays Wealth.

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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Results

6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m, Winner Bandar, Fernando Jara (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer).

7.05pm Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m, ​​​​​​​Winner Well Of Wisdom, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.

7.40pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, ​​​​​​​Winner Star Safari, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.

8.15pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner Moqarrar, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.

8.50pm Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m, Winner Secret Advisor, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.

9.25pm Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m, ​​​​​​​Winner Parsimony, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.

10pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Simsir, Ronan Whelan, Michael Halford.

10.35pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m, ​​​​​​​Winner Velorum, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.

The Baghdad Clock

Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

Company%20profile
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NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League, last-16, second leg (first-leg scores in brackets):

PSG (2) v Manchester United (0)

Midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports

'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai, 
HBKU Press 

The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos

Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

Roll of honour 2019-2020

Dubai Rugby Sevens

Winners: Dubai Hurricanes

Runners up: Bahrain

 

West Asia Premiership

Winners: Bahrain

Runners up: UAE Premiership

 

UAE Premiership

Winners: Dubai Exiles

Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes

 

UAE Division One

Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens

Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II

 

UAE Division Two

Winners: Barrelhouse

Runners up: RAK Rugby

Tickets

Tickets for the 2019 Asian Cup are available online, via www.asiancup2019.com

Profile of MoneyFellows

Founder: Ahmed Wadi

Launched: 2016

Employees: 76

Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)

Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Scores in brief:

  • New Medical Centre 129-5 in 17 overs bt Zayed Cricket Academy 125-6 in 20 overs.
  • William Hare Abu Dhabi Gymkhana 188-8 in 20 overs bt One Stop Tourism 184-8 in 20 overs
  • Alubond Tigers 138-7 in 20 overs bt United Bank Limited 132-7 in 20 overs
  • Multiplex 142-6 in 17 overs bt Xconcepts Automobili 140 all out in 20 overs
Scores

New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs 

New Zealand win by 47 runs

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi

From: Dara

To: Team@

Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT

Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East

Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.

Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.

I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.

This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.

It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.

Uber on,

Dara

What is blockchain?

Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.

The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.

Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.

However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.

Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.

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