Last week US unemployment topped 33 million, or nearly 15 per cent of the former working population, a level that should frighten any stock market investor familiar with the 1930s and the Great Depression.
Yet US stock markets closed the week higher. The Nasdaq is only 7 per cent off the all-time high it hit in February before the coronavirus nightmare struck Main Street.
Investors are looking forward, say analysts, not backwards, although they do recall that ‘fighting the Fed’ has been a fool’s errand in the past.
Investment has become heavily concentrated in a few leading stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft on the Nasdaq, for instance. At no point in stock market history has such a concentration ended well.
It is true the US Federal Reserve has opened the spigots and money is pouring into the American economy: more has been injected in the past two weeks than in the whole Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.
But if people actually read recent statements by senior Fed officials, they would know that the US regulator is cautioning against expecting a rapid recovery. The International Monetary Fund says this is the worst global economy since the Great Depression.
It’s also notable that investment has become heavily concentrated in a few leading stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft on the Nasdaq, for instance. At no point in stock market history has such a concentration ever ended well.
US stock markets are themselves looking like lonely hangouts in a world where equity markets are mostly 20-30 per cent off their recent highs, and far more sanguine about the economic outlook.
Could it be that Americans have become too optimistic, too quickly? Or is this a state of denial because stocks have been overvalued for years?
Last weekend the world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, broke his silence to say he was still not buying stocks. Despite having a record $137 billion (Dh503bn) in cash and the ability to ‘buy a $30-50bn company on Monday morning’, he did not see ‘anything that attractive’.
Of course, Mr Buffett was not looking particularly chipper as the value of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio he runs is down more than $50bn.
His rallying cry in support of the long-term capacity of the American dream to deliver results was as good as it got, although that did not extend to airline stocks. He dumped his entire holding.
Friends have started retiring, and a number have asked me about their future portfolio allocation. My usual response is that stalling and doing nothing is probably the best approach right now.
Traditionally pension portfolios are split between stocks for growth and bonds for income with some real estate perhaps for diversification, albeit many retirees own property anyway.
But equities look poised for a further downturn. That is unless a vaccine is found for coronavirus, so that social distancing and other health interventions that make many businesses unprofitable can stop.
Meanwhile, the summer will likely deliver more awful economic data, profit warnings and pending bankruptcies followed by a second wave of white-collar layoffs in anticipation of a second wave of the coronavirus this autumn. A recovery will realistically take 18 months to two years.
Bonds are also in an awkward position. Governments, companies and individuals all over the world are now borrowing huge amounts of money. Rising debt usually means higher interest rates, and that means lower bond prices, whatever the intervention by central banks.
This could well be the end of the road for the 40-year bond bull market. March lows in US treasury yields may have been the top for bond prices. One hedge fund manager I know sold most of his extensive US bond holdings then.
So would you as a newbie pensioner want to start your retirement by buying expensively priced bonds? This could deliver the lowest possible income for your senior years.
You would definitely be kicking yourself if a few years down the line interest rates on simple deposit accounts rise. Even emerging market bonds might be a better bet than treasuries as they were in the global financial crisis.
Another thing to consider is that leading asset classes tend to change during economic crises. This could be a top for equities and bonds, for example, but a bottom for commodities.
Oil at under $10 a few weeks back seemed on the floor, and has since rebounded to $25, some say a little too quickly.
However, agriculture and industrial commodities were smashed to new lows by the recent crash and are still a good buy. Corn is at a 45-year low, and coffee has retreated.
Precious metals have already picked up, although silver has lagged behind gold’s strong performance. Higher gold, plunging interest rates and multiyear lows for commodities are all bearish indicators for the economy, stocks and probably bonds too.
Real estate prices could also drop on reduced demand. The unemployed are usually interested in rent holidays rather than buying property. But houses are generally more solid assets than highly-priced equities whose dividends and share buy-backs can be cut, or bonds that shrink in value as interest rates rise.
'Cash is king in a recession' and investors lucky enough to be in that position should be patient. Like Warren Buffett, wait for the best bargains.
Peter Cooper has been writing about Gulf finance for more than two decades
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 2,000m - Winner: Powderhouse, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap Dh165,000 2,200m - Winner: Heraldic, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Conditions Dh240,000 1,600m - Winner: Walking Thunder, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash
8.15pm: Handicap Dh190,000 2,000m - Winner: Key Bid, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.50pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed Dh265,000 1,200m - Winner: Drafted, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
9.25pm: Handicap Dh170,000 1,600m - Winner: Cachao, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap Dh190,000 1,400m - Winner: Rodaini, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Cloud%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20George%20Karam%20and%20Kamil%20Rogalinski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Food%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Olayan%20Financing%2C%20Rua%20Growth%20Fund%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Studying addiction
This month, Dubai Medical College launched the Middle East’s first master's programme in addiction science.
Together with the Erada Centre for Treatment and Rehabilitation, the college offers a two-year master’s course as well as a one-year diploma in the same subject.
The move was announced earlier this year and is part of a new drive to combat drug abuse and increase the region’s capacity for treating drug addiction.
MATCH DETAILS
Juventus 2 (Bonucci 36, Ronaldo 90 6)
Genoa 1 (Kouame 40)
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks
Following fashion
Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.
Losing your balance
You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.
Being over active
If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.
Running your losers
Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.
Selling in a panic
If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.
Timing the market
Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
QUALIFYING RESULTS
1. Max Verstappen, Netherlands, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1 minute, 35.246 seconds.
2. Valtteri Bottas, Finland, Mercedes, 1:35.271.
3. Lewis Hamilton, Great Britain, Mercedes, 1:35.332.
4. Lando Norris, Great Britain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.497.
5. Alexander Albon, Thailand, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1:35.571.
6. Carlos Sainz Jr, Spain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.815.
7. Daniil Kvyat, Russia, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:35.963.
8. Lance Stroll, Canada, Racing Point BWT Mercedes, 1:36.046.
9. Charles Leclerc, Monaco, Ferrari, 1:36.065.
10. Pierre Gasly, France, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:36.242.
Eliminated after second session
11. Esteban Ocon, France, Renault, 1:36.359.
12. Daniel Ricciardo, Australia, Renault, 1:36.406.
13. Sebastian Vettel, Germany, Ferrari, 1:36.631.
14. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:38.248.
Eliminated after first session
15. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.075.
16. Kimi Raikkonen, Finland, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.555.
17. Kevin Magnussen, Denmark, Haas Ferrari, 1:37.863.
18. George Russell, Great Britain, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.045.
19. Pietro Fittipaldi, Brazil, Haas Ferrari, 1:38.173.
20. Nicholas Latifi, Canada, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.443.
THE SPECS
Engine: six-litre W12 twin-turbo
Transmission: eight-speed dual clutch auto
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh940,160 (plus VAT)
On sale: Q1 2020
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 424hp
Torque: 580 Nm
Price: From Dh399,000
On sale: Now
